Predicting How NC State vs. Pitt Will Play Out
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RALEIGH — Coming off a much-needed bye, NC State made the short trip to Western Pennsylvania on Friday before Saturday's matchup with the 5-2 Pittsburgh Panthers and head coach Pat Narduzzi. The Wolfpack is looking for its fifth win of the season and second ACC victory.
Pitt boasts one of the nation's most aggressive defenses and had tremendous success against the run in seven games.
As he almost always does, NC State Dave Doeren said the matchup is less about what the Panthers bring to the table and more about the Wolfpack itself. The team failed to play complementary football in any of the first seven games. Did the bye week help them change that?
Expectations and Predictions
A Physical Football Game
Doeren and Narduzzi share similar backgrounds. Both spent time coaching in the Big 10 and the MAC before landing with their ACC programs over a decade ago. The pair worked on the defensive side of the football coming up the ranks. Both agreed on one thing without speaking to each other in the buildup to the game: it will be physical.
"They're very aggressive. They blitz. It's Pat's system and they're putting guys in the box to stop the run," Doeren said about the Panthers.
When discussing NC State throughout the week, Narduzzi repeatedly used the word 'tough' to describe his friend Doeren's team. While the Wolfpack defense has struggled to finish tackles, it's not a group that shies away from physicality. Just look at all of the injuries.
A Bailey Bounce Back?
Sophomore quarterback CJ Bailey's last outing in a Wolfpack uniform was not one he'll want to replicate. Bailey threw three interceptions for the second time in the 2025 season and struggled to string together completions against a rapidly improving Fighting Irish defense.
Pitt's defense isn't an ideal candidate to bounce back against. While the Panthers' strength is stopping the run, the defense can certainly get to the quarterback and take the ball away. While NC State has just 11 sacks on the season, the Panthers doubled that total in their first seven games.
Bailey was sacked two more times in all three of the Wolfpack's losses. He turned the ball over six times in two of those three games. If the offensive line can't keep the sophomore upright, the Wolfpack will be 4-4 when the clock hits zero.
Do Stats Matter To Smothers?
Sophomore running back Hollywood Smothers is set to face off against the eighth-best run defense in the nation in terms of yards allowed per game. The Panthers average just 90 yards allowed overall and have held opponents to just 40 rushing yards in games in Pittsburgh so far.
If there were ever a tailback to cut through the statistics, it's Smothers. He forced 36 missed tackles in the 4-3 start and ran through contact consistently in some of his best performances of the season. He's dealt with suspect run blocking all season long. There's no reason to think he won't be able to break a couple of big plays against the Panthers.
Final Take
Doeren and the Pack have three realistic chances at wins left on the schedule and need a pair of wins to reach bowl eligibility, a bare minimum standard during the Doeren era. Saturday's matchup is one of those must-win games.
While Pitt's 3-0 record since making the move to true freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel and its elite defense pose challenges, Narduzzi himself called NC State the 'most talented' opponent the Panthers have seen to date. Some might argue Louisville, a program that just took down the a top 5-ranked Miami team, might've been more talented, but the Wolfpack pose challenges right back at Pitt.
Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi called NC State the “most talented” opponent so far in the 2025 season. @WolfpackOnSI pic.twitter.com/j6nI9kYJH8
— Tucker Sennett (@SennettTucker) October 20, 2025
Both teams have a sense of urgency for the remainder of the schedule, but for very different reasons. Pitt is still in the hunt. The Pack just wants to finish strong for its coach and prove it is better than a 4-3 start.
Assuming Bailey can avoid the turnovers and the Wolfpack defense does enough to frustrate Heintschel, NC State hangs on and wins this one 28-24.
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Tucker Sennett graduated summa cum laude with a B.A. in Sports Journalism from the esteemed Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University. A former basketball player, he has gained valuable experience working at Cronkite News and brings a deep passion for sports and reporting to his role as the NC State Wolfpack Beat Writer On SI.
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