Can Nebraska Men’s Basketball Advance to the Sweet 16?

Expectations are fun until they’re not. Nebraska men’s basketball might feel the pressure of those expectations right now.

Nebraska has spent most of the 2025-26 season basking in the warm light and glory of being the nation’s surprise college basketball team. Not one of the surprise teams — *the* surprise team, a distinction they earned.

The Huskers’ 20-0 start — and 9-0 start in the powerful Big Ten — sparked national commentators to offer fawning praise about this miracle in Lincoln from a team that won 17 regular-season games the previous season.

As Nebraska (26-6) prepares for its NCAA Tournament first-round game Thursday (11:40 a.m. CDT, TruTV) against the Troy Trojans, the Huskers’ 20-0 start almost seems like it’s from another team from another time. Maybe the Big Ten competition simply caught up to the Huskers.

But it’s March and time to make things right.

What is the Huskers’ upside?

Can Nebraska make the Sweet 16? That would mean two victories, and wins haven’t come easily lately.

No. 4 seeds, by projection, are Sweet 16 teams, although that particular math probably isn’t helping Fred Hoiberg sleep better at nights. Matchups overrule projections.

More math: 4-seeds are 127-33 in the first round since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985.

March Madness is March Madness because of the early-round upsets — or terrifying near-upsets. Low-seeded teams historically have been vulnerable to this madcap fun.

Speaking of vulnerabilities, Nebraska’s six losses this season have a consistent thread — getting outrebounded. A Troy strength is offensive rebounding. Giving up second-chance points hurt the Huskers at times. “[Troy does] a really good job on the glass,” Hoiberg said at a news conference Monday.

Nebraska coach Fred Hoiberg praised his first-round opponent, the Troy Trojans, at a news conference this week. | Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

No mysteries for what the Huskers must do on Thursday. Rebound, rebound, rebound. Relentlessly. And play defense. And cut down on turnovers. Every possession is gold.

Moving forward

Nebraska’s recent 6-6 record is the exact trend that gets you sent home early in March Madness. Nebraska hasn’t defeated a ranked team since Jan. 2 — 58-56 over visiting Michigan State, which was ranked ninth.

Nebraska forward Jared Garcia celebrates with fans after the Huskers defeated Michigan State at Pinnacle Bank Arena. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Maybe the Huskers are a good team but not a great team — at least not great enough to have a say in March Madness. We’ll soon see.

If Nebraska gets past Troy, it will play the winner of Vanderbilt-McNeese State in Saturday’s second round. In March, games don’t get easier. Vandy advanced to Sunday’s SEC title game.

The only breather, generally, for a low seed is in the first round and that’s not a given. Nebraska will carry an 0-8 NCAA Tournament record into Thursday’s game, so there’s that.

The Sweet 16 is and should be a benchmark for many teams. Nebraska has the talent to get there. The Huskers have shown that.

First things first. Given their occasional problems on the defensive boards, the Huskers will have to contain Troy junior forward Thomas Dowd. The first-team All-Sun Belt player is 6-foot-8, 225 pounds. He averaged 14.8 points and 10.1 rebounds per game. He was the Sun Belt Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player.

Troy center Theo Seng has missed the last six games with a knee injury. Senior Jerrell Bellamy, a 6-foot-9 forward, stepped in and averaged 15.3 points. Troy was 5-1 without Seng.

The Athletic’s NCAA Tournament assessment of Troy: “The Trojans could punish a weak front.”

Nebraska’s situation

At this point, after spending so much of the season in top 10, Nebraska finds itself in an awkward position. The Huskers’ season has been unexpectedly great, historic even. But is it enough? Not for the players and coaches and fans.

That’s where Nebraska stands — already enjoying its greatest season but on the edge of disappointment. Which, really, defines the NCAA Tournament, in all of its beauty and tension.

A first-round loss would be unthinkable for the Huskers.

Will a first-round win followed by a second-round loss diminish the Huskers’ season? Probably. Especially immediately and in the short term before there’s time to reflect on what they actually accomplished.

This is what basketball powers go through every season, when a dozen teams think they have a legitimate chance to win the national title and only one does.

That’s a lot of heartbreak after a season of so much joy.

Time machine

Let’s play time machine. If, before the season began in November, you were told Nebraska would win a school record-tying 26 games (and only lose six games), spend week after week in the top 10 and land a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament, the GBR crowd would have been thrilled.

As they should have been.

Expectations were sky-high for Nebraska, especially in January. From Jan. 16 to Jan. 30, Joe Lunardi’s ESPN Bracketology had the Huskers as a 2-seed. That was five times Lunardi projected Nebraska as a potential Elite Eight team.

Nebraska not only was undefeated for so long, it looked both elegant on offense and determined on defense in doing so. The Huskers hustled. They played unselfish basketball. When the Huskers played well — which was often, as seen by their 18 double-digit wins — they looked unbeatable.

The Huskers were winning on both ends of the floor, with contributions from the starters and the bench. Heroes were everywhere. They were 20-0 on Jan. 27, when they went into Ann Arbor without Rienk Mast and Braden Frager and lost to No. 3-ranked Michigan by only three points.

The Huskers were so impressive in defeat against the Wolverines that they didn’t drop a seed line in Bracketology. They remained a 2-seed. They were legit — and everybody knew it.

How good were the Huskers? Their status as the nation’s darlings was only enhanced in defeat.

But in the Huskers’ 72-58 loss to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals on Friday, reality struck hard. Nebraska was outrebounded, 37-29; outscored in the paint, 26-18; and outscored on second-chance points, 19-8.

If Nebraska doesn’t make it to the Sweet 16, getting overpowered inside likely will be the reason why.

Should Nebraska regain its early-season magic, and fortify its defensive rebounding, its already-historic season could turn into something even more special.

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