Nebraska Men’s Basketball’s Week Ahead: Historic Huskers’ Can Make History

After 32 games, it’s time for 26-win Nebraska to show whether it was a spunky Cinderella on a one-season run, or a legitimate college basketball power.

Truth is: The Huskers have been both since the season began in November.

March Madness, in all of its glory, is here and provides every opportunity for teams to show who they are and to prove their worth. The first step for fourth-seeded Nebraska: Winning the program’s first NCAA game. The Huskers are 0-8 in NCAA games, the only power conference team without a NCAA Tournament win.

Nebraska’s first-round opponent is 13th-seeded Troy, the Sun Belt Conference champions from Troy, Alabama. The Huskers and Troy will play Thursday at 11:40 a.m. CDT at Oklahoma City. Nebraska, which matched a program record for wins this season, is in the South Region, where defending champion Florida is the No. 1 seed.

If Nebraska defeats Troy, it will play the winner of fifth-seeded Vanderbilt vs. 12th-seeded McNeese State on Saturday. No reason to worry about that second-round game just yet — but know that Vanderbilt can be a handful — with Thursday’s game at hand.

Troy, which did not play any teams that made the NCAA field this season, won the Sun Belt regular-season title and the conference tournament title.

Troy lost at USC in November, 107-106. Nebraska defeated USC, 82-67, on Feb. 28. Troy defeated a solid San Diego State squad, 108-107, in double overtime in November. San Diego State (22-11) lost in the Mountain West final to Utah State.

Nebraska is only 6-6 in its last 12 games, all Big Ten games. Four of the Huskers’ losses were to ranked teams.

CBS analyst Seth Davis, on the Selection Sunday show, mentioned how much pressure Nebraska will be under trying to finally win an NCAA Tournament game.

It’s time to put nerves aside. This is the moment Nebraska has waited for all season.

Nebraska vs. Troy

What: NCAA Tournament first round, South Region
When: Thursday, 11:40 a.m. CDT
Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Records: Nebraska, 26-6, 14-6 in Big Ten; Troy, 22-11,12-6 in Sun Belt
TV: TruTV

Rankings based on games through Sunday.

Troy rankings

* Associated Press Top 25: Not ranked
* NCAA Net Ratings: 125
* USA Today Coaches Poll: Not ranked
* Kenpom.com: 143
* ESPN Power Index: 134
* Top 25 and 1: Not ranked
* Team Rankings.com: 131

Nebraska rankings

* Associated Press Top 25: 11
* NCAA Net Ratings: 14
* USA Today Coaches Poll: 14
* Kenpom.com: 14
* ESPN Power Index: 18
* Top 25 and 1: 8
* Team Rankings.com: 19

Nebraska-Troy analysis

Upsets mostly happen in the first two rounds. Why? It’s a brisk, 40-minute game — not a best-of-seven series. The three-point line is a makable 22-ish feet. If one player has a hot game, look out. Did you see Penn’s TJ Power on Sunday in the Ivy Madness championship game? He scored 44 points as Penn upset 10-point favorite Yale, 88-84, in overtime. Power averages 16.8 points per game.

It can happen.

If the underdog keeps it close, the crowd gets behind them. At some point, the favorite feels like everything is going against them.

The underdog gets a taste of success and realizes they are alive and, yes, they can pull this off. The favorite feels the heat and maybe gets out of rhythm and tries to force the play.

None of this might happen to the Huskers. Nebraska has plenty of talent to win. The Huskers have been through the Big Ten wars and finished tied for second place.

Plus, the Huskers should have a well-traveled crowd cheering them on in Oklahoma City.

Troy could cause some problems

Troy could present some issues for the Huskers. Opponents only shot 31.1 percent from distance against the Trojans. Is that the quality of the Trojans' defense, or the quality of the opposition's marksmen?

Troy opponents scored 52 percent of their points inside the arc. Those are interesting stats given Nebraska’s success from distance. More than 50 percent of Nebraska’s shots came from distance, and they connected on 35.3 percent of them.

The Trojans pound the boards. They grabbed second chances on 34.8 percent of possessions. Giving up second-chance points hurt the Huskers at times.

But if you take a step back and look at the matchup, Nebraska was tied for runner-up in the Big Ten, considered by many the best basketball conference this season. The Sun Belt just can’t compare.

If you look at the comparative rankings, Nebraska is the superior team.

But in the one-and-done world of March Madness, you never know. Anymore, nearly every first-round game is scary. Nebraska’s season has been special. There’s little reason to think it only has one game remaining.

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