Nebraska Men’s Basketball Returns to 2-Seed in Latest ESPN’s Bracketology

From Jan. 16 until Tuesday, Nebraska was a projected 2-seed in ESPN’s Bracketology. That was five consecutive times as a 2-seed.

On Tuesday, the Huskers dropped to a 3-seed after their 78-69 loss to Illinois on Sunday.

Well, the Huskers are back as a 2-seed in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology, released Friday morning.

Gonzaga was a 2-seed on Tuesday, but lost to 11-14 Portland on Wednesday, 87-80. The loss presumably dropped the Bulldogs down to a 3-seed.

Nebraska (20-2, 9-2 Big Ten) can protect its 2-seed and stay close in the Big Ten race when it next plays at Rutgers on Saturday (11 a.m. CT, Big Ten Network). Rutgers is 9-14, 2-10 in the Big Ten, but the Scarlet Knights are 8-5 at home. Nebraska is one game behind Michigan and Illinois in the loss column atop the Big Ten standings.

In CBS Sports’ Bracketology, dated Friday morning, Nebraska dropped to a 3-seed from a 2-seed. In CBS Sports’ projections, Nebraska would play 14-seed Troy in the South Region. The Nebraska-Troy winner would play the winner of 6-seed St. John’s and the First Four winner.

Nebraska is ranked ninth in the latest AP Top 25 Poll, which was released Monday. The Huskers dropped from fifth. The next ESPN Bracketology will be released Tuesday morning.

Huskers projected in Big Dance

Here are Nebraska’s last 17 Bracketology projections, where you can see the Huskers’ status through the season:

* Nov. 18: 11 (Last four in)
* Nov. 25: 10 (Last four byes)
* Dec. 2: 8
* Dec. 9: 7
* Dec. 16: 5
* Dec. 23: 4
* Dec. 30: 4
* Jan. 6: 3
* Jan. 9: 3
* Jan. 13: 3
* Jan. 16: 2
* Jan. 20: 2
* Jan. 23: 2
* Jan. 27: 2
* Jan. 30: 2
* Feb. 3: 3
* Feb. 6: 2

For now, Lunardi has the second-seeded Huskers playing 15-seed University of Tennessee at Martin in a first-round West Region game at Oklahoma City. The Nebraska-UT Martin winner would play the winner of 7-seed Kentucky vs. 10-seed USC, also in Oklahoma City.

Arizona is the No. 1 seed in the West, Gonzaga is the 3-seed and Virginia is the 4-seed. West Region Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games will be played at San Jose.

UT Martin a tough out?

Should Nebraska get paired with UT Martin (19-5, 11-2 Ohio Valley Conference) know this: The Skyhawks have the makeup of one of those troublesome 15-seeds that hang around deep into the second half of a first-round game.

The Skyhawks rank fourth in the nation (out of 361 teams) in scoring defense, allowing only 63 points per game. That might be a rough matchup for Nebraska if the Huskers aren’t shooting the ball well. UT Martin ranks sixth in field goal percentage defense at 38.3. Nebraska ranks 67th in field goal percentage at 47.2.

Nebraska has thrived on three-point shooting in terms of volume and success rate. The Huskers have made 35.7 percent of their distance shots, 82nd in the nation. The Huskers have made 243-of-679 attempts. Nebraska’s 679 attempts rank 14th in the nation.

Potentially a problem: UT Martin ranks fifth in three-point percentage defense at 28.0 percent.

UT Martin’s leading scorer and rebounder is Andrija Bukumirovic, a 6-foot-7 junior from Serbia. He averages 14.4 points and 8.2 rebounds per game.

Second-seeded teams have lost to 15-seeds only 11 times in 160 attempts, so the odds greatly favor the low seed. The last 15-seed upset was Princeton over Arizona in 2023.

Other NCAA notes

Lunardi’s other No. 1 seeds are: Michigan (Midwest), UConn (South) and Duke (East). Arizona is Lunardi’s overall No. 1 seed.

Two Big Ten schools are in Lunardi’s ”Last Four Byes”: UCLA and USC … plus Saint Mary’s and Georgia. “Last Four Byes” teams skip the First Four round.

Lunardi’s “Last Four In” are Miami, Texas, New Mexico and Ohio State. They play First Four games.

Lunardi’s “First Four Out” are California, San Diego State, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State. These teams are ranked 69-72 and missed the cut for the 68-team field.

His “Next Four Out” are Seton Hall, Missouri, TCU and Baylor. These teams are ranked 73-76.

Lunardi has 11 Big Ten teams — more than any conference — in his latest Bracketology (with seeding and projected first-round opponents in parentheses):

Nebraska guard Jamarques Lawrence shoots over Michigan guard Elliot Cadeau (3) in the second half at Crisler Center. | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

* Michigan (1 vs. winner of 16 Maryland Baltimore County vs. 16 North Carolina Central)
* Nebraska (2 vs. 15 UT Martin)
* Illinois (2 vs. 15 Charleston)
* Michigan State (4 vs. 13 Troy)
* Purdue (3 vs. 14 Austin Peay)
* Iowa (7 vs. 10 Saint Mary’s)
* Wisconsin (9 vs. 8 Texas A&M)
* Indiana (9 vs. 8 Utah State)
* USC (10 vs. 7 Kentucky)
* UCLA (10 vs. 7 NC State)
* Ohio State (11 vs. 11 New Mexico; winner vs. 6 Louisville)

Selection Sunday is March 15. The Final Four is April 4-6 in Indianapolis.

ESPN’s power rankings

Nebraska remained at 18 in ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index.

The projection for the Huskers’ wins and losses remained the same at 26.4 wins and 4.6 losses. In the Big Ten, Nebraska’s projections remained the same: 15.4 wins and 4.6 losses.

Nebraska’s projection to win the Big Ten championship dropped to 12.6 from 14.1 percent.

Four Big Ten teams are ranked ahead of Nebraska in ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index. Nebraska has defeated two of the teams ranked ahead of it, Illinois and Michigan State, and lost to Michigan and Illinois.

* Michigan: 3
* Illinois: 6
* Purdue: 9
* Michigan State: 14
* Nebraska: 18

Duke (21-1) is the top-ranked team with Arizona (22-0) second, Michigan (21-1) third, Houston (20-2) fourth and Iowa State (20-2) fifth.

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