Predicting Nebrasketball’s Full NCAA Tournament Path: Is a Final Four Run Possible?

Nebrasketball is back in the Big Dance and looking to finally get that first NCAA Tournament win in program history.

The Huskers, the No. 4 seed in the South Region, will take on Troy on Thursday in Oklahoma City. Joining them in OKC are (5) Vanderbilt) and (12) McNeese.

Here's a prediction for every round that Nebrasketball may reach in latest March Madness.

First Round

The Troy Trojans are 22-11 and winners of the Sun Belt Conference. They were the top seed in the tournament, but got help in the championship game by facing a tired Georgia Southern team, which was on its sixth game in six days.

Troy is led by its frontcourt. 6-foot-8 forward Thomas Dowd averages a triple-double, while 6-foot-7 scores 14.8 points a game and averages 4.6 assists. Theo Seng, a 6-foot-9 center, has missed the last six games with a knee injury.

Nebraska is back in the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons. | Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

Nebraska opened as a 13.5-point favorite. That should be covered fairly easily by this Nebraska team, which will be fully rested and recovered from the battles of the Big Ten Conference slate.

Second Round

On Saturday, Nebraska will get the winner of the No. 5 seed Vanderbilt and the No. 12 seed McNeese. The Cowboys got their first NCAA Tournament in school history a year ago, but I expect the Commodores to avoid the upset.

Vanderbilt took a four-game winning streak into Sunday's SEC Championship game, falling to Arkansas. The Commodores do well defensively with steals and blocked shots, but have a tendency to foul as well. On the other end, they're adept at drawing fouls.

Nebraska forward Berke Büyüktuncel | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

Nebraska has not done well when pressured on the outside with shot blockers waiting on the inside. Still, this will be a big opportunity for the Huskers to drive and draw fouls. Making three-pointers and avoiding the shot blockers would also be nice.

I have Nebraska winning this one and making it to the second weekend.

Sweet 16

Most Likely: (1) Florida

Darkhorse: (9) Iowa
Other potential opponents: (8) Clemson, (16) Prairie View/Lehigh

The Gators are the top seed in the region. The defending national champions rank in the top-10 for both offense and defense and boast the SEC Defensive Player of the Year in Rueben Chinyelu.

Florida has two players scoring at least 15 points a game, but as a team, they aren't elite at the three-ball, ranking 327th in the nation in three-point percentage and 207th for three-point makes per game.

Nebraska Cornhuskers guard Jamarques Lawrence shoots the ball against the Northwestern Wildcats at Pinnacle Bank Arena. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

This is a matchup that could either go swimmingly for Nebraska or be the ultimate disaster. If the Gators are forced into more than 30 three-pointers, that could keep the Huskers in the game. However, Florida is the No. 1 rebounding team in the nation.

Although it isn't out of the realm of possibility that Nebraska wins this matchup, Florida is likely to take advantage of NU's biggest weaknesses: the paint and rebounding.

Elite Eight

Most Likely: (2) Houston

Darkhorse: (14) Penn
Other potential opponents: (3) Illinois, (6) North Carolina, (7) Saint Mary's, (10 Texas A&M, (11) VCU

Houston made the national title game last year and is elite at scoring the ball and turning over the opposition. While the Cougars are 28-6 on the year, four of those losses have come in the last 27 days.

Freshman guard Kingston Flemings averages 16.4 points and 5.3 assists per game. Should Nebraska reach this round, the Cougars are a tough opponent with the Final Four on the line.

Final Four

Most Likely: (1) Duke

Darkhorse: (7) UCLA
Other potential opponents: (2) UConn, (3) Michigan State, (4) Kansas, (5) St. John's, (6) Louisville

Duke is the overall No. 1 seed in this year's tournament. The Blue Devils have a top-five offense and defense, led by double-double machine and National Player of the Year favorite Cameron Boozer.

The ACC champs do have some injury issues to get figured out this week, including starting center Patrick Ngongba and starting point guard Caleb Foster. Still, the Blue Devils are the favorites to win it all.

National Championship

Most Likely: (1) Michigan

Darkhorse: (6) BYU
Other potential opponents: (1) Arizona, (2) Purdue, (2) Iowa State, (3) Gonzaga, (3) Virginia, (4) Alabama, (4) Arkansas

The committee viewed Michigan as the overall No. 1 seed just a few weeks ago. While they fall a couple of spots and remain a No. 1 seed, the Wolverines are favored just behind Duke to win the national championship.

Nebraska saw Michigan at Pinnacle Bank Arena earlier this season. The Huskers weren't at full strength and pushed the Wolverines, ultimately falling, 75-72.

In the unlikely world that Nebrasketball is facing Michigan for the national title, it is nothing but house money for the Huskers. In a one-game showdown, there's no telling how this team would perform. But there's a reason Michigan has been favored all year to win it all.

Have a question or comment for Kaleb? Send an email to kalebhenry.huskermax@gmail.com.

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Nebraska Men's Basketball 2025-26 Schedule

Oct. 18 Nebraska 90, BYU 89
Oct. 27 Nebraska 91, Midland 50
Nov. 3 Nebraska 86, West Georgia 53
Nov. 8 Nebraska 96, Florida International 66
Nov. 11 Nebarska 69, Maryland-Eastern Shore 50
Nov. 15 Nebraska 105, Oklahoma 99 (Sanford Pentagon)
Nov. 20 Nebraska 84, New Mexico 72 (Hall of Fame Classic)
Nov. 21 Nebraska 86, Kansas State 85 (Hall of Fame Classic)
Nov. 25 Nebraska 80, Winthrop 73
Nov. 29 Nebraska 72, South Carolina Upstate 63
Dec. 7 Nebraska 71, Creighton 50
Dec. 10 Nebraska 90, Wisconsin 60
Dec. 13 Nebraska 83, Illinois 80
Dec. 21 Nebraska 78, North Dakota 55
Dec. 30 Nebraska 86, New Hampshire 55
Jan. 2 Nebraska 58, Michigan State 56
Jan. 5 Nebraska 72, Ohio State 69
Jan. 10 Nebraska 83, Indiana 77
Jan. 13 Nebraska 90, Oregon 55
Jan. 17 Nebraska 77, Northwestern 58
Jan. 21 Nebraska 76, Washington 66
Jan. 24 Nebraska 76, Minnesota 57
Jan. 27 Michigan 75, Nebraska 72
Feb. 1 Illinois 78, Nebraska 69
Feb. 7 Nebraska 80, Rutgers 68
Feb. 10 Purdue 80, Nebraska 77
Feb. 14 Nebraska 68, Northwestern 49
Feb. 17 Iowa 57, Nebraska 52
Feb. 21 Nebraska 87, Penn State 64
Feb. 25 Nebraska 74, Maryland 61
Feb. 28 Nebraska 82, USC 67
March 3 UCLA 72, Nebraska 52
March 8 Nebraska 84, Iowa 75
March 13 Purdue 74, Nebraska 58 (Big Ten Tournament)
March 19 vs. Troy 11:40 a.m. TruTV (NCAA Tournament)

Home games are bolded. All times central.