Analytics Preview: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. the Akron Zips

For the first time since 2018, the Akron Zips will travel to Lincoln to take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

However, this will be just the first time the teams have played since 1997, after a lightning storm canceled Scott Frost’s debut and perhaps altered the trajectory of Nebraska football for years to come. Like the 2018 matchup, this game is crucial for a young Husker team. This matchup should be an easy win for Nebraska, providing an opportunity to develop some depth and to showcase improvement after a long break between games.

Dylan Raiola vs. Ben Finley

Nebraska’s most important player did what he was supposed to do against Cincinnati. Quarterback Dylan Raiola set a new career high for completion percentage while posting his fifth-best yardage output of his career. Despite this, many college football voices from around the country were unimpressed with his play. Much of the criticism was directed at his short passes, which were a byproduct of the defensive scheme the Bearcats employed.

His positive EPA was helped by avoiding two plays that could’ve been turnovers – a strip sack in the second quarter and a near interception in the third. A key area to watch in the next two games is whether Raiola makes any interception-worthy throws like he occasionally did against Cincinnati.

Running total EPA for Dylan Raiola and Ben Finley in 2024 and 2025. | Arbitrary Analytics

Akron’s quarterback, Ben Finley, is an experienced player. He first committed to North Carolina State before Raiola even started high school. Phil Steele ranked him as the fourth-team All-MAC preseason quarterback. Finley couldn’t be more different from Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby. Last season, Finley surpassed 350 yards passing in three games (the Zips went just 1-2 in those games). Finley, like Sorsby, though, struggles with accuracy. He has not completed more than 55% of his passes in a game since the seventh game last season.

Emmett Johnson Emerges

In the first game of the season, Emmett Johnson emerged as the bell cow back for the Huskers. No other running back received more than one carry for the Huskers. Matt Rhule stated in his Monday press conference that the other backs would likely see more action in future games, which will be welcome to avoid an excessive number of hits on Emmett Johnson. I expect Heinrich Haarberg to remain a factor in the running game all season, following the debut of the Husker “tush push” in front of Jason Kelce at Arrowhead Stadium.

Top Nebraska rushers 2024 and 2025. Carry distribution shows how often a player rushed for a certain number of yards. | Arbitrary Analytics

The Zips are a welcome sight for a Blackshirt defense that allowed over 200 yards on the ground for the first time since the Indiana game last season. Only seven teams have rushed for fewer yards than Akron in the previous two seasons, including two programs that joined FBS this season. Forty-two percent of the Zips’ rushes against Wyoming were stopped for 2 yards or less. The Blackshirts managed to stop only 17% of Cincinnati’s runs for 2 yards or less.

Quarterback Finley is the Zips’ most experienced rusher, although many of those carries are from sacks. He's rushed for just 46 yards in 28 career games. However, he’s not a statue either with a career-long on the ground of 33 yards. The Blackshirt’s defensive line will need to play disciplined football against the veteran quarterback.

Top Akron rushers 2024 and 2025. Carry distribution shows how often a player rushed for a certain number of yards. | Arbitrary Analytics

This game is a key test for the Huskers. In the 1990s, Akron was a team that Nebraska would (and did) bury. Against Wyoming, Akron’s offense ranked in the bottom 2% for EPA/play, the bottom 9% in success rate and the bottom 1% in yards per play. My expectation for the Blackshirts is to hold the Zips to zero points. Even the backups should give up no more than 10 points to this offense.

Over the last two games, Nebraska has shown that it has figured out how to win close games. This week is an opportunity to prove that it can win big.

Despite all the advantages the Huskers have heading into this game, I think it’s going to be closer than the experts predict. I believe offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen will use this game to explore more of his options for later in the season. Even if Johnson starts hot, I think the backups will still receive a significant workload. I also believe Carter Nelson and Haarberg will see significant playing time as the Huskers look to fill the void of Janiran Bonner. Both are versatile players who can line up all over the field like Bonner did in 2024.

I think these experiments might limit Nebraska’s upside in this game. Ultimately, they should benefit Nebraska later in the season. I predict Nebraska wins 34-10.

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