Can Nebraska Take the Next Step? Five Reasons to Doubt It Could Happen In 2025

Josh Peterson dives into Nebraska football and finds reasons to most be skeptical about the football team finally breaking through.

Nebraska fans hold up a sign during 2024 Pinstripe Bowl. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

We’re still counting down around these parts.

How’s the time been moving for you?

A couple weeks back, I put together a list of five reasons to be excited about Nebraska football in 2025. The list came to me quite easily. I can find another handful of reasons to buy into the program, but what's the fun in that?

Next. Five Reasons To Be Excited About Husker Football In 2025. Five Reasons To Be Excited About Husker Football In 2025. dark

Sitting down to find five reasons to doubt in the program in 2025? Pretty much just as easy! Which makes for a fascinating season we're all looking forward to.

So, with just over 2.5 months to go until the Nebraska football season starts their 2025 campaign in Kansas City, Missouri against the Cincinnati Bearcats, here are five reasons to worry, doubt, or just not buy into the Cornhuskers making that jump so many around here have been hoping (and praying) for since 2015.

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Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola throws a pass against Iowa last season. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

1. Are we sure Dylan Raiola can take the next step? This is the question, right? The most important position in all of sports (mostly) controls the fortunes of a college football program or franchise in the NFL. Outliers* certainly exist, but for the most part, quarterbacks all over the country will decide how good or bad of a season their programs have.

*Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl, after all.

In his first year at Nebraska, Dylan Raiola was... fine. The excitement of the early part of the season – 83/115 (72.2%), 967 yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions – took a downturn towards the end of the loss to Illinois in Nebraska’s fourth game. You could almost see the regression of the season coming inside that game itself, as early throws on target turned into missing Luke Lindenmeyer, which then turned into the sacks he took in OT.

Raiola just overthrew it here to potentially take the lead pic.twitter.com/UfLmnGAslO

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 21, 2024

In the five games that followed the loss to Illinois, his completion percentage dropped by 13%, he only threw two touchdowns, and did so while throwing six interceptions. In fact, over the course of three games vs. Rutgers, Indiana, and Ohio State, he threw zero touchdowns vs. five interceptions.

He had regressed.

Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola carries the ball during the Huskers' 2024 win over Rutgers. / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

In came Dana Holgorsen – my number one reason to be excited for Nebraska football in 2025 – and his numbers rebounded a bit. While he only threw three touchdowns in the final four games of the season, he didn’t give the ball the way as much, throwing just three INTs. And his completion percentage rebounded to 71.7%. Plainly, things looked better even if the numbers weren’t where you’d want them to be. He finished the year with 2819 passing yards and a 13-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

So, what does Nebraska have in the year two QB?

Too often in sports, it’s easier to believe in someone that you’ve never seen at that level, especially if the early returns aren’t what you were hoping for. There was more excitement for year one of Dylan Raiola than there is year two – at least in what I’ve seen from the fanbase – even though you’d figure a year under the QB’s belt, not to mention Holgorsen, should make for an easier 2025 than what he dealt with in 2024.

And yet, as we’ll talk about a bit later, it’s fair to again wonder what type of talent Dylan Raiola has around him. It would be revisionist history to say I wasn’t excited about the wide receiver room one year ago today. They didn’t live up to the expectations I ultimately had, but I don’t think I went into the season wondering, “does he have anyone to throw to?” And while I like the moves they made in the offseason, I find myself a bit gun shy to unequivocally say that they’ve improved in terms of targets.

Ditto the offensive line. I think they’ll be better this year. I thought the same last year. But what type of mobility will we be looking at from Raiola? Will he be able to escape the pressure more often and avoid finishing with negative rushing yards? That remains to be seen.

The “next step” for Raiola would be somewhere in the neighborhood to 3200 yards, 20+ touchdowns, and single-digit interceptions. I’d say those are realistic numbers. Can he deliver?

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Nebraska defensive coordinator John Butler meets with the media. / Kaleb Henry

2. How much regression should be baked into the defensive cake? In Bill Connelly’s final SP+ rankings of 2023, Nebraska’s defense ranked sixth. A year later, 12th. That regression* was just enough for Nebraska to not break through like they could have. The defense was a little bit worse overall, with an uptick (though not much) in points per game allowed, rushing yards allowed, and more.

*Not to mention Nebraska’s continued struggles on special teams, as well as the ups and downs on offense.

On top of that, Nebraska’s sack numbers actually went down from 2023 to 2024 – 32 vs. 30 – even with the team playing one more game. Through six games, the Blackshirts had gotten to the opposing quarterbacks 20 times; six against Colorado, five against Purdue, and another four in the win over Rutgers. The final six games of the regular season? Seven times, with one each in losses to Indiana, USC, and Iowa, and none in the breakthrough win against Wisconsin to lock up the first bowl bid since 2016.

All that and more helps explain the muted reaction to Tony White leaving. As I wrote in my first HuskerMax column back in March:

If you would have told me before the 2024 opener vs. UTEP that this was White’s final season in Lincoln, I would have responded with a shrug and one word: “Obviously.” If you would have told me it was because he was leaving for the same job at another Power 4 school, I would have been quite surprised.

I added, “by the time it happened, it made sense for both parties.” Three months later, I stand by that, and yet, I’m worried about that side of the ball. In steps John Butler, hired last summer to coach Nebraska’s secondary – the weakest link for the defense in 2024 – as well as Phil Snow, fresh off a gap year away from coaching.

On one hand, I’m bullish on the latter move. Snow was with Matt Rhule at Temple, Baylor, and in the NFL with the Carolina Panthers. He was Rhule’s first choice as DC when Rhule first got to Nebraska in November of 2022. There’s going to be a shorthand between the two that can’t be underestimated. And with no recruiting to worry about, and all his focus on making the defense as good as possible, I believe Snow can provide invaluable input to the defense.

On the other hand, Butler’s unit was worse last year when compared to 2023. And where Tony White brought multiple years of coordinator experience to the program when he joined Rhule’s first staff, Butler has just one season as a coordinator; 2013 with the Penn State Nittany Lions.

John Butler was the opposing defensive coordinator when Nebraska won in overtime at Penn State in 2013. / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

PSU’s defense finished 35th in SP+ that year, which isn’t too bad when you consider they were in year two of a four-year* bowl ban. And yet, it was sandwiched around rankings of 7th (2011), 16th (2012), 10th (2014), and 16th (2015). In fact, even with a defensive SP+ ranking of 34th during the disastrous 2020 campaign, the 2013 unit was actually the second-worst defense for Penn State since 2002.  

*That bowl ban would actually turn into a two-season one, as the NCAA reversed course and restored postseason eligibility the following season.

Gone are Ty Robinson, Nash Hutmacher, Jimari Butler, Tommi Hill, and James Williams. Say what you will about the latter two in particular, but Robinson and Hutmacher brought a level of security, size, and experience to the defensive line that just won’t be there anymore.

Nebraska defensive lineman Ty Robinson was selected by the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2025 NFL Draft. / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Three questions:

1. Can Nebraska tackle better? The 2023 unit took a big jump from the 2022 unit and the biggest reason why, in my opinion, was their ability to tackle.
2. Can Nebraska get off the field on third down? This was actually an area Nebraska improved at in 2024, going from 45th in the country to 31st in the country in third down defense. Can that number climb into the top 25? Top 20?
3. Can Nebraska create more splash plays? Sacks, tackles for loss, and total takeaways; Nebraska need more. Nebraska’s 30 sacks ranked 44th-best in the country. Tackles for loss? Tied for 40th. And total takeaways? 67th. Those numbers need to climb.

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Nebraska wide receiver Jacory Barney Jr. carries the ball against Indiana last season. / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

3. Are there difference makers on offense or defense?

How many proven players are there at Nebraska’s skill spots? I’m talking about the no-doubt-about-it type dudes the team needs if they’re going to make that next step. This isn’t to say they don’t have them – time for my obligatory “why not Emmett Johnson?” mention I’ve so often done this offseason – but believing they have those types of guys is different than knowing they have those types of guys.

Emmett Johnson Is Better Than You Think. Emmett Johnson Is Better Than You Think. dark. Next

At this moment, I don’t know.

The candidates are obvious. The aforementioned Johnson upped his game tremendously in the final four games* of the season. Dane Key improved every year at Kentucky, going from 519 to 636 to 715 receiving yards from 2022 to 2024, upping his yards per catch each season as well. Nyziah Hunter caught close to 600 yards as a true freshman at Cal. Add in the intrigue of Heinrich Haarberg at tight end, and young players at running back and receiver, and it’s easy to find reasons to believe in improvement. But again I ask; do we know for sure?

*For more on that, I again send you to my Five Reasons to be Excited for 2025 column.

And yeah, don’t worry, I haven’t forgotten about Jacory Barney. If there’s on offensive skill guy I truly do believe in for the 2025 season, it’s the sophomore from Florida. His 577 yards from scrimmage in 2024, plus the three touchdowns, don’t really tell the story of what type of player he could turn into if he’s fully unlocked. He only averaged 8.1 yards per catch, which don’t seem to fully fit the skillset he brings to the table. With Dana Holgorsen calling plays, I have to imagine we’ll see Barney catching the ball in space more often, with plenty of yards available in front of him.

Rutgers quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis throws as he is hit by Nebraska linebacker Vincent Shavers Jr. during last season's game between the Huskers and Scarlet Knights. / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

On the other side of the ball, again there are dude candidates. Vincent Shavers and Willis McGahee IV both showed out in Nebraska’s bowl win over Boston College, combining for ten total tackles, with Shavers himself adding two TFLs, including a sack. After bursting onto the scene with a nice freshman year in 2023, Cam Lenhardt took a bit of a step back in 2024; from three sacks in 2023 to just half a sack in 2024. Could he be a candidate for a breakthrough? Could transfers Marques Watson-Trent or Dasan McCullough bump up the numbers we talked about above for the defense? It remains to be seen. 

If there’s a Jacory Barney on defense, the closest comp I can think of right now is Ceyair Wright. The senior set career highs across the board at Nebraska and led the Huskers in pass breakups while ranking second in interceptions. Not bad for a player that wasn’t even on the roster at this time a year ago!

The above paragraphs certainly can give you reasons to buy into what Nebraska has. They also will require players reaching or surpassing levels they haven’t yet in their careers. There’s still some wait and see to it all.

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Nebraska cheerleaders carry flags across the field after a score against Wisconsin on Nov. 23, 2024. / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

4. Is the schedule as light as it seems on paper? How many times in the last decade have you looked at the schedule and said, “they could start 6-0?” Too many times, probably. Even with Colorado coming to town in week two, last year’s schedule ahead of the Ohio State matchup in late-October seemed incredibly ripe for the picking. And yet, by the time Nebraska traveled to Columbus, they’d already played three teams that would finish inside the AP Top 25; Colorado (25th), Illinois (16th), and Indiana (10th). There was no way in hell we saw any of that coming, especially the Hoosiers going 11-1 in the regular season and making the College Football Playoff.

And yet, I’m already hearing that same sentiment this spring. “It’s a manageable schedule.” “Outside of Michigan in week four, there’s not a tough game until mid-October.” “Cincinnati will practically be a home game, which means five-straight in Lincoln (or Lincoln-South) to begin the season.”

Going a step further, the early SP+ numbers for 2025 have Nebraska at or close to being a favorite in all but three or four games this season. The reasons to believe in a nice start go beyond, “well it’s _____, how good can they be?” Another cursed phrase around here.

I’ll give you three teams to look out for, beyond the obvious ones, in 2025:

1. Cincinnati: Is this one obvious? Perhaps, but I can’t stop thinking about this matchup, and not just because it’s the first game of the season. Between 1985 until 2015, Nebraska didn’t lose a season-opener. Since 2015, they’ve dropped six. In each of those seasons, they finished sub-.500 and in two of them – 2015 and 2023 – that loss was the difference between going 5-7 and 6-6 in the regular season. This one is massive. Can you imagine the drive back to Nebraska if the Huskers drop this one as a 6.5-point favorite? Can you imagine the vibes if another long offseason kicks off with an absolute dud? If they can’t beat this Bearcats squad, how many teams do we trust they can beat?
2. Maryland: Nebraska’s first true road game doesn’t come until October 11th. Even with a shift towards the Terps because of home field, Bill Connelly’s numbers have Nebraska as about a touchdown-or-so favorite in this one. With Minnesota on short rest the following week, it also comes in one of those classic look-ahead spots we see so many teams get bit by. The Huskers have been favored eight times against Big Ten opponents in Matt Rhule’s first two years. They’re 4-4 overall and 2-5-1 against-the-spread, including 1-1 on the road. All that to say, this is a classic spot where the program has usually faltered. If they’re a different Nebraska program, they’ll show it in this one.
3. Northwestern: It’s 2011. Or 2015. 2018. 2020. 2022. You’re looking at Nebraska’s upcoming schedule, counting up the wins, trying to talk yourself out of the losses. How many times in those five seasons did you put a big ole W next to Northwestern’s name? Three? Four? All five? And yet, each loss cost Nebraska in its own unique way. A week after a massive win over Michigan State in 2011, the loss to Northwestern knocked Nebraska out of the top spot in the Legends division, as well as from ninth to 19th in the AP poll. 2015 helped keep them from a 6-6 regular season. 2018 was the last of six-straight losses to start the season. 2020 made the team 0-2. I don’t even need to tell you what the 2022 loss meant. In five seasons full of agonizing losses, how many times was the Northwestern loss the one that made people the angriest? And in the case of 2025, this one falls at about the worst part on the schedule if you're trying to avoid losing to a team you shouldn't; it's the first home game after a two-game swing at Maryland and Minnesota, and right before the November gauntlet against the two LA schools, Penn State, and Iowa. It’s easily the most forgettable game in the back half of the season. Which makes it that much more important, if Nebraska is to put together their best regular season in close to a decade.

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Iowa's Drew Stevens (18) celebrates after kicking the game-winning field goal against Nebraska last season. / Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

5. Can Nebraska finally close games out? We save the best for last. There’s no need to go through the entire recent history of Nebraska and one-score futility, mainly because I don’t want to step on the toes of the Groin Kick Chronicles, which will premiere soon.

The Groin Kick Chronicles.

Coming June 19th on the @I80Club. pic.twitter.com/H0wCqc8CW5

— Josh Peterson (@joshtweeterson) June 7, 2025

So instead of looking back at a decade of Husker football, let’s just focus on Matt Rhule. Here are the margins of defeat his teams have taken in the 13 losses: 3, 22, 38, 3, 3, 7 (OT), 3, 7 (OT), 49, 4, 7, 8, 3. For those counting at home, that’s three losses by double digits (all by 22+) while the other ten have come by an average of 4.8 points per game.

Think about that; in ten of Matt Rhule’s 13 losses, a touchdown would have made all the difference. That number represents the difference between a 12-13 start at Nebraska and one that more resembles a true rebound of a new era at Nebraska. Instead, it’s been an all-too-familiar collection of losses for Husker football.

So, how do they do it?

Illinois offensive lineman Brandon Henderson scores on a six-yard pass during the fourth quarter last season against Nebraska. / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

I’ll give you one obvious way to not lose one score games; don’t play in them. As mentioned above, in Matt Rhule’s 13 losses at Nebraska, ten have come in one-score games. Adding to that, they’ve only won three games decided by a touchdown or less: 17-9 over Northwestern in 2023, 14-7 against Rutgers last October, and 20-15 vs. Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl.

In 25 games at Nebraska, more than half have been decided by a touchdown or less! I’m not here to say playing in games decided by nine or more points every single week is plausible or even realistic; it’s not. They’ll play in them, more than once I'd guess, in 2025. Want to allow for more margin for error though? Stiff-arm the opposition a bit. I can’t but help to think of wins over Purdue and Illinois in 2023, when Nebraska’s offense wanted to make the games more interesting than they needed to be, only for the defense to make stop after stop.

Why do I think the defense was able to play to that level? It might sound ridiculous, but I think it’s because they continually went back onto the field with leads of 13 points or more. Correlation or causation? Perhaps, but I watched Nebraska’s defense fail to make stops against Minnesota and Maryland that year as well, in games that were decided by a single field goal.

And fine, you want a real way to avoid losing games decided by a touchdown? All of the ingredients from this column need to come together. Dylan Raiola is a better, more confident quarterback. The defense doesn’t just avoid more regression, but actually improves in 2025. Dudes emerge on both sides of the ball, allowing for a bit more margin of error, because you know you can rely on them. No matter how tough Nebraska's schedule is, they meet the challenge and then some.

Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule. / Kenny Larabee, KLIN

And let's add one more thing; Matt Rhule and the coaching staff win games with their game plans and clock management, something we really haven’t said around here through two seasons.

Do you have reasons to doubt Nebraska football in 2025? Or perhaps more reasons for optimism? Send Josh a comment today: joshpeterson.huskermax@gmail.com

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