Purdue vs. UCLA Prediction, Odds, How to Watch Big Ten Tournament Semifinal

The UCLA Bruins likely lifted themselves out of any bubble conversations ahead of the 2026 NCAA Tournament by upsetting the No. 8 Michigan State Spartans in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals.

However, it came at a price, as the Bruins lost forward Tyler Bilodeau – their leading scorer – to a right leg injury. If Bilodeau can’t play on Saturday, UCLA is facing an uphill battle against another ranked team in the Purdue Boilermakers.

Purdue is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, and it’s put together a nice run in Chicago, knocking off Northwestern and Nebraska to reach the semifinals. The Boilermakers lost three of four games to end the regular season, but oddsmakers have them set as sizable favorites in this semifinal matchup.

During the regular season, UCLA knocked off Purdue, 69-67, when the Boilermakers were the No. 4 team in the country. Another upset would be even tougher with Bilodeau banged up, but the Bruins have won four games in a row and six of their last seven, peaking at the right time in March.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for the Big Ten Tournament semis.

Purdue vs. UCLA Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Purdue -7.5 (-108)
UCLA +7.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Purdue: -325
UCLA: +260

Total

147.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Purdue vs. UCLA How to Watch

Date: Saturday, March 14
Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
Venue: United Center
How to Watch (TV): CBS
Purdue record: 25-8
UCLA record: 23-10

Purdue vs. UCLA Key Player to Watch

Braden Smith, Guard, Purdue

One of the best veteran guards in the country, Smith is second in the nation in assists per game (9.0) this season, and he’s completely controlled games so far in the Big Ten Tournament.

While he’s scored just five points in each of his two games in the Big Ten tourney – and struggled shooting the ball – Smith has done everything else. He dished out 16 assists and had two steals in the win over Northwestern, and he followed that up with 10 dimes and five rebounds against Nebraska.

The Boilermakers go as Smith goes, and he’s one of the more experienced guards in the country – and one of the best – this March.

Overall, Smith is averaging 14.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, 9.0 assists and 1.8 steals per game while shooting 45.0 percent from the field and 37.8 percent from 3. UCLA held him in check – 12 points, four rebounds – in the lone meeting between these teams in the regular season.

Purdue vs. UCLA Prediction and Pick

Purdue has opened Big Ten Tournament play with back-to-back double-digit wins, and the Boilermakers are going to be a tough out with veterans like Smith and Trey Kauffman-Renn leading the way.

Even though UCLA upset the Boilermakers earlier this season, that game was at home and Bilodeau played a major role, scoring 14 points while knocking down four 3-pointers.

His injury is a major concern for a UCLA team that relies heavily on a very efficient offense (No. 21 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency) while playing at one of the slowest tempos (No. 317 in the country) this season.

Purdue also loves to slow games down (No. 320 in adjusted tempo), and it ranks second in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Boilermakers are 11th in the country in effective field goal percentage, 16th in 3-point percentage and 15th in turnover rate.

Meanwhile, the Bruins are a slightly worse shooting team (70th in effective field goal percentage) though they come in at 14th in the country in turnover rate.

UCLA does have a good 3-point defense (54th in the country in opponent 3-point percentage), but I don’t know if it can pull off an upset without Bilodeau. The Boilermakers haven’t gotten a big scoring game from Smith, yet they’ve rolled back-to-back opponents in this tournament.

Now that UCLA has likely punched a ticket into the Big Dance, I wouldn’t be shocked if it comes up short on Saturday afternoon without its leading scorer.

Pick: Purdue -7.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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