Eight Wins or Bust: Nebraska Football's Essential Number for the 2025 Regular Season

The Nebraska Cornhusker football team feels on the verge of breaking through and re-entering the national conversation. For the first time in decades, the program's infrastructure is completely aligned from top to bottom.

Even during the golden era of Husker football, legendary head coach Tom Osborne and the program's athletic director at the time — Bill Byrne — weren't exactly in harmony with each other.

Byrne was hired in June 1992 and presided over Nebraska's athletic department during one of the most dominant decades in college football history. Between 1992-2001, the Huskers went 111-15, winning three national championships and playing in two others. Although many consider Byrne to be the best athletic director in Nebraska history, he and Osborne often butted heads.

The most infamous example was Tom Osborne's succession plan. Osborne had notified Byrne of his intent to retire early during the 1997 season and lobbied hard for Frank Solich to succeed him. Byrne had his own list of up-and-coming coaches he wanted to consider for the opening. Despite being in discordance, Osborne, frankly, overstepped his authority and publicly announced Solich as his replacement while Byrne was out of town, essentially forcing his hand.

Byrne resigned to take the job at Texas A&M in December 2002, and every ensuing athletic director has quickly — justified or not — pivoted toward replacing the sitting head coach: Steve Pederson (Frank Solich), Tom Osborne (Bill Callahan), Shawn Eichorst (Bo Pelini), Bill Moos (Mike Riley) and Trev Alberts (Scott Frost). Even when those guys hired "their coach," it was apparent early on that one or both were in over their heads.

Heck, even Osborne and Pelini — the only successful pairing — didn't see eye-to-eye on everything. In particular, Pelini was vehemently opposed to joining the Big Ten.

Nebraska Athletic Director Troy Dannen and head football coach Matt Rhule after the Huskers' 2024 win over Wisconsin. — Athletic Director Troy Dannen and head coach Matt Rhule . | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

In contrast, when Trev Alberts unexpectedly left for College Station in March 2024, for all intents and purposes Husker head coach Matt Rhule hand-picked Troy Dannen to be his replacement. In the 17 months since, they've been in complete lockstep with each other.

It's early into their partnership and it's still to be determined how successful they'll be together at Nebraska, but it's been a promising start.

Nebraska couldn't ask for better stewards during a time of unprecedented change. Together, they've adapted and stayed innovative during the shifting tides. There's no doubt the program's foundation is on solid ground. Not only that, but it's teed up to really take off. So how does Nebraska do its best Rory McIlroy impression and launch its football program 325 yards down the fairway of national relevancy?

To ensure that trajectory, the Huskers need to collect at least eight wins — and they need to reach that benchmark during the regular season. Some of you may argue it's semantics by stipulating it be done before a bowl game. You might think eight wins is eight wins. I disagree.

A 7-5 regular-season probably results in another lower-tier bowl game and a possible eighth win over an average opponent. That feels a lot like last season. I'm not debating it would still represent incremental progress, but in order to capitalize on momentum, the perception has to be different.

An 8-4 regular season likely means the Huskers have spent a decent portion of the season ranked in the top 25 for the first time since the 2016 season. It also means they're getting invited to a prominent bowl game. Imagine capping off the season by playing a ranked SEC team in the Citrus or ReliaQuest Bowl. Think of the narrative around the program at that point.

Matt Rhule and his staff will want to have on-field results to point to before the early signing period in December and the ensuing winter transfer portal window opens up. If Nebraska takes a significant jump this season and shows proof of concept by way of wins, the ripple effect will be substantial.

2026 four-star offensive tackle prospect Claude Mpouma. — 2026 four-star offensive tackle commit Claude Mpouma. | @c_pu_ma_/Instagram

The bulk of Nebraska's 2026 recruiting class is in place. An intentionally small class currently sits at 12 commitments — although I don't expect South Dakota WR Dveyoun Bonwell-Witte to end up in Lincoln. Regardless, at this point the coaches are big-game hunting for any potential additions. Nebraska would like to add a defensive lineman, another linebacker and a safety to this current crop. They also wouldn't turn down another top-level offensive tackle to pair with Chicago four-star Claude Mpouma.

An eight-win regular-season scenario like the one I've laid out allows Rhule and his staff to circle back on some top targets before December's early signing period and aim for some flips. There are several who chose other schools initially that Husker coaches will continue to work on over the next several months.

Names to bookmark are Florida linebacker Jordan Campbell (Miami), Florida safety Devin Jackson (Oregon), Florida edge Kamron Wilson (Syracuse), Texas linebacker Calvin Thomas (North Carolina), Florida safety Tedarius Hughes (Florida State) and Florida offensive tackle Javeion Cooper (Syracuse).

The staff is still pushing for defensive tackle Valdin Sone, a top-50 national recruit and arguably the top overall player on their board. The Huskers are recruiting him harder than anyone but aren't expected to gain his initial commitment. He's someone the staff will stay on until he signs in December.

If things go really well on the field this season, I wouldn't be surprised if the staff doubled back and checked the pulse of the recruitments of guys like offensive tackle Jackson Cantwell (Miami) and defensive lineman Titan Davis (Michigan). Both Missouri products were early top-of-the-board targets for this staff and reciprocated serious interest in the Huskers for over a year.

Immediate recruiting dividends aren't even the most impactful repercussions that would be felt.

Nov 2, 2024; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers wide receiver Jacory Barney Jr. (17) makes a catch against UCLA Bru — Wide receiver Jacory Barney Jr. is one of the 91 freshmen or sophomores on the Huskers' roster. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Nebraska approached this offseason with the anticipation of getting down to a 105-man roster. "We told everybody in December, because that's what I thought was fair, 'Hey, if we did the 105 right now you would be in the 105, you would be out of the 105, you would be competing for the 105'," Rhule said in April. "We try to do that to be fair. We tried to be transparent since day one."

Even in a money-driven landscape where NIL and the transfer portal lurk over every program, the Huskers lost very few frontline players. There's complete buy-in on this roster. The culture in the building is extremely strong. These kids just need to see the results of their hard work and belief in Rhule's process start to really pay off.

The most recent roster number stands at 125 players; 91 of them are freshmen or sophomores. The roster consists predominantly of underclassmen who were recruited by Rhule, have grown up in his culture and have multiple seasons of development from his staff. The coaches are bullish on the core of the team and believe several youngsters are on the verge of stardom.

Quarterback Dylan Raiola is a bona fide NFL talent. He has a deep-seated affinity for Nebraska, and the program has made him a millionaire. That doesn't mean he should be taken for granted, however.

This past offseason, teams like Auburn, Miami and Texas A&M made him lucrative offers to transfer. He stayed loyal, but can that be expected next offseason if the team doesn't feel on the doorstep of a playoff run?

How much of a deterrent would two seasons of similar on-field results be for him? If Raiola has the sort of sophomore season I'm anticipating with over 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns, he would potentially solidify himself as a future first-round pick and 2026 could very well be his last year in college.

Nov 23, 2024; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Dylan Raiola (15) passes against Wisconsin Badgers def — Greener pastures could prove alluring to quarterback Dylan Raiola if the 2025 season isn't much different from 2024. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Believe me, Raiola wants to leave a legacy and he desperately wants that to be in Lincoln. But if he doesn't think the team is ready to push for a playoff spot, would he stick around beyond this season? Could anyone really blame him if he decided to play his last year or two with a legit contender?

We've seen countless examples of quarterbacks maneuvering around the country to jockey themselves into better situations. With several of those guys seeing their draft stock improve exponentially as a result, don't assume Raiola is beyond a change of scenery if he thinks it's necessary.

Now that I've got you white-knuckling your phone, the inverse of that worst-case scenario is Raiola coming back for his junior season confident that the 2026 Huskers are poised for a playoff run. An eight-win regular season and statistical output from him like the one I presented set the stage for a launching-pad offseason for Nebraska.

Every talking head from every media outlet would be calling Nebraska a sleeper pick for the playoffs, and Dylan Raiola would be getting the same amount of airtime as guys like Arch Manning, LaNorris Sellers and DJ Lagway when the topic of potential No. 1 overall picks for the 2027 NFL Draft is discussed.

That's the sort of momentum coming out of the season that would open doors for elite transfers who would want to play with someone like Raiola while also believing they could be the missing piece on a team ready to make a run.

2027 four-star quarterback Trae Taylor (right) with Nebraska football coach Matt Rhule (left) after the Rutgers game. — 2027 four-star quarterback commit Trae Taylor with Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule. | @Qb6Trae on X

Before I make another Offseason National Champions joke, truthfully, this is exactly the sort of offseason hype that gets Nebraska positioned for a top-10 recruiting class in the 2027 cycle.

I haven't seen a Husker staff lay the groundwork for a future recruiting class the way Matt Rhule and this staff have. These coaches have been sowing the seeds for the 2027 class for well over a year already. They've already hosted dozens of four- and five-star prospects and have a commitment from one of its top-rated quarterbacks.

Trae Taylor will likely end up a five-star recruit and is the most enthusiastic peer recruiter Nebraska has had in quite a while. Having committed May 1, he'll have been the class ambassador for 20 months by the time he and his classmates sign. Taylor spent every weekend of June on campus and living just eight hours away in Mundelein, Illinois, he'll be a fixture in Lincoln over the next two seasons.

The future appears bright for this program. If the Huskers want to accelerate their re-emergence onto the national stage, they need to heed the advice of the late, legendary owner of the Raiders; Al Davis. Just win, baby.