Huskers Analytics Review: A Game of Resilience

It was the best of times; it was the worst of times. Then it was some pretty good times again.

The Huskers emerged from the tunnel looking absolutely dominant to start the game. They opened with a three-and-out, marched down the field for their first touchdown. Another three-and-out led to a second punt, which was blocked and returned for a touchdown.

Then the Blackshirts were on the field for the longest opponent drive of the season – 17 plays – which led to a Michigan State touchdown. The Huskers’ offense was on the sidelines for nearly an entire quarter and didn’t look the same when they returned to the field.

The Huskers faced a strong wind in the second and third quarters of this game. During those, the offense sputtered. Late in the third quarter, things were looking bleak for the Huskers. They faced a third-and-10 at their own 25. The Huskers’ win probability before the play was just 12.1% when Dylan Raiola found Jacorey Barney Jr for a huge 45-yard gain. From that point on, everything flipped. Over the last five seasons, the only time the Huskers faced a lower win probability in a game they went on to win was Rutgers in 2022.

After the special teams were a significant liability throughout 2024, they helped the Huskers win this game. Two of the six most impactful plays in the game (as measured by EPA) were special teams plays. The kickoff fumble recovery and the punt block were both -4 EPA plays for the Spartans. Outside those two plays, both teams’ total EPA were essentially even.

Michigan State and Nebraska were even analytically, but special teams separated the two teams. | Game on Paper

This wasn’t the only place where the special teams made a huge impact. Over half of the Huskers’ drives started on the Michigan State side of the field, with two of those coming from significant returns by Jacory Barney Jr. The Huskers had a 16-yard advantage in starting field position over the Spartans. The defense also contributed to two interceptions, resulting in short fields. In its close losses in 2024, Nebraska would lose the average starting field position battle.

The Huskers’ struggles in this game were obvious. While the wind was likely to blame for some of the offensive stagnation, the offensive line play was especially concerning. Dylan Raiola has been sacked 12 times in the last two games now. Nebraska managed just 1.06 offensive line yards per carry against Michigan State, down from 1.98 versus a talented Michigan front seven. The offensive line can make big plays like it did on the Nyziah Hunter touchdown catch, but they make far more noise for their mistakes than their excellence.

Like most games this season, some units showed progress while others regressed. Despite all the struggles against Michigan State, the biggest sign of progress was the Huskers’ refusal to quit. In recent seasons, mistakes would compound, and the team would find a way to lose. Nebraska was at the point where things could have started to spiral out of control before Dylan Raiola found Jacory Barney and brought the team back.

The Huskers are finding ways to win games, whereas in past seasons, they would often find ways to lose them. Nebraska has the talent and skill to win 10 games still this season. They also make enough mistakes to struggle to make a bowl game. Nebraska has a resilience it lacked in past seasons, and that will determine how far it can go this year.

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