Nebraska Can Finish Regular Season 6-6, 7-5, 8-4 or 9-3, so Even Without Dylan Raiola, There’s Plenty to Play For

In a brutal two hours at Memorial Stadium on Saturday night, Nebraska lost starting quarterback Dylan Raiola to a broken fibula, lost a hard-fought game to USC, and lost any chance it had of making the College Football Playoff.

Three strikes and you’re out? It might feel that way to Husker fans.

Nebraska coach Matt Rhule, the recipient of a two-year contract extension announced Thursday, is scheduled to hold a news conference Monday. Don’t expect anything but full-speed ahead from Rhule, mixed with optimism about backup quarterback TJ Lateef and confidence about finishing the season strong.

Three regular-season games remain and even after Saturday night’s disaster, Nebraska has plenty to play for. The totality of Nebraska’s season will be judged by individuals — each fan, each member of the program, the media, whomever cares to have an opinion.

That judgment should be made by what happens on the field in November, second-string quarterback or not. The Huskers can’t afford, in this season of promise, to toss in the towel. The expectation is they won’t.

How Huskers can finish

Time for math: The Huskers can finish the regular season either 6-6, 7-5, 8-4 or 9-3.

There’s an enormous spiritual difference between a 9-3 season and a 6-6 one, and not just in the record books. An 8-4 season — while it might be disappointing to some — would show a two-game improvement from last year. A 7-5 season? Meh.

A 6-6 season? That likely would mean a long winter, spring and next summer. No one around Lincoln would be happy — even with Raiola unable to play.

Nebraska finishes with games at UCLA on Saturday night, at Penn State on Nov. 22, and home with Iowa on Black Friday … then a bowl game. The Huskers’ Nov. 15 bye week will come in handy.

Let’s examine what each finishing record means and then look at each opponent.

First, a quick recap. Nebraska is 6-3 (3-3 in the Big Ten), coming off a 2024 6-6 regular season (3-6 in the Big Ten) and 7-6 overall record. Based on preseason optimism, 6-3 at this point in the season seems to be one win short from the anticipated victory total.

Maybe two wins short.

Fans figured the Huskers were capable of a nine-win season and hoped for a 10-win one, especially with the schedule, perceived to be on the relatively easy side without Ohio State, Indiana or Oregon. And it will take until Nov. 8 for the Huskers to play their third true road game.

Let’s look ahead …

A 6-6 season

Expected responses from a 6-6 season: disaster. What happened? What in the heck happened? How could this happen? Talented QB with more experience, solid transfers filling in positions of need. Roster improvement. Another season with Rhule’s program.

Given that the Huskers were 6-6 last season another 6-6 season would feel like a huge letdown. It also means Nebraska lost its final four games and five of its final six.

Rhule said early in the season that all games are difficult ones, especially among Power 4 teams.

“When you watch Power 4-on-Power 4, most of them came down to a play here and a play there,” Rhule said at a news conference after the Huskers’ 20-17 opening-game victory over Cincinnati.

A 7-5 season

OK, this would represent some improvement. Enough improvement? Probably not for the Husker faithful. Probably not for Rhule, his staff and the players, either. After all the preseason optimism and excitement and Nebraska manages one more regular-season victory than last season?

Probably not acceptable, either, just as a 6-6 season isn’t acceptable.

Two of the Huskers’ victories simply were not competitive — Akron and FCS Houston Christian. Nearly every FCB school plays FCS schools (all but 10 of 136 FBS schools so), Nebraska among them.

That’s not to take away from Nebraska’s win total, since the practice of scheduling weak teams is universal throughout big-time college football. The ledger is the ledger. When it said six wins on Oct. 25, it was six wins. Not until there is a deeper dig and analysis into the season, and figuring out what happened and why, will the two easy games be looked at in a more critical light.

An 8-4 season

This would require winning two of the final three games: at UCLA and Penn State and home with Iowa. Should the Huskers bounce back from the Raiola injury, this could be an honest scenario.

Fans wouldn’t be upset at 8-4, given the circumstances.

A 9-3 season

This would require a sweep of UCLA, Penn State and Iowa. That could be a treacherous trifecta. It also would be a meaningful trifecta.

That would require two road victories — UCLA and Penn State. Big Ten road victories are never easy.

Nebraska is 1-1 in true road games this season — a win at Maryland and a demoralizing loss at Minnesota. The Huskers are 4-2 at home and 1-0 at a neutral site.

UCLA has been totally unpredictable. The Bruins started 0-4, then won three consecutive games — including a win over Penn State when beating PSU still meant something — before being destroyed at Indiana. UCLA will be coming off a bye week and with four games to play, hoping to salvage its season.

The game is in Los Angeles and it will be a dangerous one for the Huskers. Even with Raiola, beating UCLA on the road was going to be difficult.

Penn State? Given the Nittany Lions’ circumstances — replacing their coach, starting quarterback gone for the season — this looks like an advantage for the Huskers. But Penn State’s Beaver Stadium is a rough place to play and this game doesn’t look easy, either.

The remaining home game, vs. Iowa, is a matchup with a team that has defeated the Huskers 10 of the last 12 meetings, including the last six at Memorial Stadium.

But 9-3 would signify tremendous program growth for the Huskers. Get to 9-3 — or even 8-4 — then add in a bowl game, and Huskers have a jumping off point for 2026. And the citizenry isn’t besides itself.

An 8-4 season wasn’t what everyone wanted — or expected — but it is what it is. Right now, going 8-4 would seem like a major triumph and making the absolute best of a situation that didn’t go exactly as planned.

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