Nebraska’s Season on the Line Against Rutgers

The 2026 Nebraska football season in free fall.

After their 4th straight loss and 4th straight game without scoring 21 points (after all, the Big Ten is a race to 21), Matt Rhule made a change at offensive coordinator, firing Dana Holgorsen and replacing him with Glenn Thomas. The timing is appropriate, as the Huskers are heading into their game against the Big Ten’s worst scoring defense – Rutgers.

The pressure is still on Matt Rhule for this game. If Nebraska loses to Rutgers for the first time in program history, I’m not sure Matt Rhule will remain Nebraska's head coach. If he wants any hope of saving the season, it starts in Piscataway. Even if Nebraska wins this game convincingly, the Northwestern game from five years ago should remind us it’s just one game.

AC is Off

Early in the season, Anthony Colandrea was on his game for the Huskers’ offense. As the weather has gotten cooler, he’s been off. The Illinois game was a bounce-back game for him in many ways. He had his second-best game in completion percentage and his best in passing yards, though that was partly due to a somewhat lucky catch-and-run by Jacory Barney.

While the traditional metrics looked better, he still struggled in the advanced metrics. His EPA per play was just 0.08. In the losses, his EPA per play was under 0.1 in every game. During the winning streak, his EPA per play was 0.25 or higher in each game. In practical terms, this is the difference between being among the top 30 quarterbacks in the country and being an average quarterback. Glenn Thomas could spark the Husker offense against a vulnerable Scarlet Knight defense.

Anthony Colandrea vs AJ Surace 2026 EPA | Arbitrary Analytics

Quarterback Uncertainty

Rutgers starting quarterback Dylan Lonergan has already been ruled out for this game. Backup quarterback AJ Surace has also been listed as questionable. If both of its top two QBs are out, it’ll likely turn to Sean Ashenfelder, a sophomore who’s thrown just 11 passes over two years in Piscataway.

Rutgers ranks just behind the Huskers in EPA per dropback, at 68th. However, without their starting quarterback and star wide receiver, KJ Duff, I think they will have a hard time reaching their season average of 0.07 EPA per pass. They should struggle to move the ball through the air.

Nebraska Rushing

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If Nebraska wants to secure its trip to a bowl game, it needs to turn the game over to its most famous bowler – Jamal Rule. Nebraska is undefeated in 2026 when the Huskers rush for 150+ yards. They’ve lost every game where they fail to hit that mark. The Huskers got him involved in both the running and passing games against Illinois, where he caught more passes than in all his prior games combined. Glenn Thomas should lean on the young rusher against Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights rank just 112th in EPA allowed per carry. There are points to be scored by establishing the run.

Nebraska top 5 rushers in 2026 | Arbitrary Analytics

Rutgers Rushing

The Scarlet Knights have a duo of running backs who can produce. Antwan Raymond and Clay Thevenin each have over 450 yards this season. Both backs have also averaged 5.3 yards per carry this season, thanks to big runs and avoiding negative yardage on their carries. The Rutgers ground game is slightly above average overall, averaging 0.05 EPA per carry and ranking 60th in the country.

Rutgers top 5 rushers in 2026 | Arbitrary Analytics

X Factor

This game hinges on whether Glenn Thomas can spark the offense. The Rutgers defense ranks 132nd in EPA per pass allowed and 112th in EPA per rush allowed, even below Bowling Green and Maryland this season in both categories. Nebraska should be able to move the ball and, more importantly, score against this defense.

The Blackshirts should be able to have a good day as well. Rutgers has an explosive offense, ranking in the top 15 for explosive pass-play rate. However, star receiver KJ Duff is out for this game and the rest of the season. Duff is responsible for half of Rutgers’ touchdown catches this season. With him out, Rutgers should be much less explosive offensively.

This game is a must-win for Matt Rhule. It may be his last win of the 2026 regular season. Nebraska needs to play aggressively and try to win it comfortably. A big win heading into Senior Day against a struggling Ohio State team could help the Huskers finish the season strong. It won’t change what’s happened over the last 4 games for Nebraska, but it could give fans something to be excited about going into 2027.

After a change in offensive coordinator, and given where Nebraska’s season stands, I think the offense comes alive again in this game. This defense will be the worst that the Huskers face all season. I like Nebraska 35-10 in this game.

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