Peterson: Nebraska Might Be Making Progress, But It Doesn’t Look Like It

Is Nebraska moving in the right direction? The 40-16 loss to Iowa on Black Friday should give the program pause going into December and January.

Is Nebraska moving in the right direction as a program? The 40-16 loss to Iowa on Black Friday is a reason for pause, says Josh Peterson. | Cory Edmondson, KFGE

I don’t think Matt Rhule is going to be a successful coach at Nebraska.

This column is not about some future version of me being able to say, “I told you so.” With 48+ hours since Nebraska’s season came to a close in a horrifying 40-16 butt-whooping at the hands of Iowa, I have been sitting and stewing in the result; trying to figure out what it means for my view of the season, as well as my broad view of the program.

In early July, I took a look at four ways to define a “good” season for Nebraska:

1. Overall regular season record: Defined as 8-4 or better.
2. Performance vs. rivals: Going 2-0 vs. Minnesota and Iowa.
3. Beating a team they’re not supposed to beat: Going 1-1 or better against Michigan and Penn State.
4. Being in the CFP mix late in the season: Self-explanatory.

I added, “If Nebraska checks the box in one of the four categories, I imagine there’d be much debate surrounding whether or not the season was 'good' or just 'fine.' Check the box in two of the four categories. It’s the most successful regular season in close to a decade, if not longer.”

It’s not just that they finished the season 7-5, thus failing to meet the 8-4 requirement for the first category. It’s not just that they struggled against the rivals on the schedule; they went 0-2 against Minnesota and Iowa and lost by a combined score of 64-22. It’s not just that they didn’t beat a team they weren’t “supposed to beat,” it's that they were blown out by a Penn State team that was so bad they fired* James Franklin in the middle of the season. And while a win in Lincoln against USC a month ago would have kept them in the playoff mix for an extra week, the 1-3 November finish renders any “what if” useless.

*In fact, both Michigan and Penn State entered the game against Nebraska with interim head coaches. Rhule has faced interim coaches five times in his three-year Nebraska career, going 1-1 in 2023 and 1-2 in 2025.

In 2023, Nebraska beat Northwestern weeks before David Braun was named full-time head coach, losing to Michigan State under the guidance of Harlon Barnett in the wake of Mel Tucker's firing. This season, Nebraska lost against Michigan's Biff Poggi (in for the suspended Sherrone Moore) and Penn State's Terry Smith (in for the fired James Franklin), while picking up a win over UCLA's Tim Skipper (in for the fired DeShaun Foster).

Nebraska went 0-4 in ways to reach a truly good season. It’s hard to define this season as fine, especially given how big a crash the final month was.

So, I’ll say it: I don’t think Matt Rhule is going to be a successful coach at Nebraska. At least not in the way we would have defined “success” when he was hired three years ago. But that doesn't mean I'm demanding anything from Troy Dannen. First of all, Rhule was just extended. Second of all, the program did improve in the win-loss column for the third straight season under Rhule.

They're making progress. Why doesn't it look like it?

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What are rivalry games for if they’re not an opportunity to stare into a funhouse mirror version of yourself and find out what’s looking right back at you?

The answer on Friday afternoon wasn’t one many saw coming in the lead-up to the game. Iowa has owned the rivalry over the last decade, but coming into this year’s matchup, all but two games in the series since 2015 were decided by less than eight points; the 40-10 defeat in Iowa City in 2016, and the 56-14 destruction the following year in Lincoln. The former kicked off a whole round of discourse about Nebraska under second-year head coach Mike Riley – remember the word “bloodbath?” – while the latter was the final game Riley coached at Nebraska.

Add Friday’s 40-16 loss to that dubious list.

Nebraska is now 1-10 against Iowa since 2015. With this loss, it looks like they’re falling farther behind.

How did this happen?

In his final regular season game at Nebraska, Dane Key finished with three catches for 16 yards. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

There’s been something off about the Nebraska football program all year long. Perhaps we (I) praised them a bit too much following October wins over Michigan State, Maryland, and Northwestern. They were doing something that hadn’t been done around here in a while: winning and needing late-game heroics to do so. Add in the way the defense made a play at the end of the opener against Cincinnati, and something was different with this group.

Or so we thought.

What happened to Nebraska’s defense? Over the course of three seasons, this group has regressed. I picked Nebraska to lose this game, and Iowa’s offense is admittedly better this year, but allowing 38 points* is embarrassing. Where’s the group we saw throughout 2023, flying around without abandon and hitting people? Where’s the fire from that side of the ball?

*Credit Iowa’s special teams for the other two points.

In 2023 and 2024, Nebraska’s offense scoring 16 points – the number they hit in the first half – would have been enough to beat Iowa twice. Yet on Friday, with 16 points through 30 minutes, they trailed by eight points, 24-16.

In 2023 and 2024, kicking three field goals in a game against Iowa would have been viewed as “smart” football; three points multiple times over will be good enough to beat the Hawkeyes! Yet, in the first half on Friday, Iowa scored three touchdowns and only settled for one field goal. Nebraska scored just one touchdown and had to settle for three field goals.

Mark Gronowski was the latest quarterback to give Nebraska's defense fits, rushing for 64 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 166 yards and another touchdown through the air. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

What on earth?

Nebraska football stared into the mirror that is Iowa football and got an answer: you are not good enough. Hell, I’m sure Iowa might edit that sentence down by a word.

You are not good.

Or worse, we own you.

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The 2025 regular season comes to a close, and all eyes turn to what’s next. Surely big changes are to come.

The coaching staff will not – should not – remain intact. He made a big bet late in the 2024 regular season, bringing in Dana Holgorsen to run the offense and jettisoning Marcus Satterfield to coach the tight ends. After the bowl game win over Boston College, they made an incredibly obvious move in demoting Ed Foley and bringing in Mike Ekeler to coordinate the special teams. Tony White’s Florida State departure meant John Butler was promoted to lead the defense.

Special teams were often a bright spot in 2025. The offense was not. And the defense, so often a strength throughout 2023 and 2024, took a big step back.

Who will coordinate in 2026? And which position coaches will return?

Will Dylan Raiola return to Nebraska in 2026? It's one of the biggest questions that need to be answered as December arrives. | Cory Edmondson, KFGE

The roster will turn over as it does every offseason. How big of a turnover we will see comes down to a variety of factors. Will Nebraska’s starting quarterback (both of them) return in 2026? Will Emmett Johnson, the biggest developmental success story in years, head off to the NFL or play one more year of college football (at Nebraska)? What happens on the lines, especially on defense, where the staff bet on their ability to develop, and instead put out the weakest unit yet in three seasons.

Nebraska’s 2026 recruiting class is the worst in my lifetime, ranked 104th by 247 Sports. Even acknowledging a large part of the ranking involves the raw numbers of players committed, the average ranking per player isn’t anything to write home about either.

More money will be spent this offseason in the portal, but with a 2-4 finish to the regular season, including 1-3* in November, and a couple 20+ point losses to boot, how will Nebraska be received by the top options on their board?

*Rhule’s November record at Nebraska now sits at 2-10.

Year four will arrive and in many ways, it’s going to seem like starting over.

For a developmental program, this seems like anything but.

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And so, we circle back to the start:

I don’t think Matt Rhule is going to be a successful coach at Nebraska, at least not in the way successful coaches have been defined throughout my lifetime.

By this point in a coach’s tenure, you have an idea where things are headed. And in particular, if Matt Rhule’s Year Three with big bright lights was supposed to signal the future of Nebraska football, well, I don’t really like what we learned.

Nebraska finished 10th out of 18 in the standings, with wins over teams that finished 11th, 12th, 16th, and 17th. They lost by one score to teams that finished 4th and 5th, and were blown out by teams that finished 6th, 8th, and 12th.

With losses by 27 and 24 points over the last two weeks, Nebraska’s point differential in conference play ended up dipping below water, finishing -48, worse than all but six teams in the Big Ten. It’s a worse number than 2024 as well, when Nebraska finished -34 in Big Ten play, 49 of the points in the negative coming against Indiana in the 56-7 loss.

To make matters worse, the 2025 Big Ten schedule was the second-easiest schedule* Nebraska has faced since joining the Big Ten in 2011, based on opponents’ combined winning percentage. The nine teams Nebraska played this year combined to go just 37-46 in league play (44.5%). The only easier schedule was a dozen years ago in 2013, when Nebraska’s eight opponents finished 28-41 in conference (40.6%). Nebraska finished that regular season 8-4, going 5-3 in league play. Shoutout to Eric Reidelbach for doing the research.

*This doesn’t even include the non-conference schedule. The win over Cincinnati propped up Nebraska for months, but the Bearcats finished the season 7-5, with four-straight losses in November. They finished tenth in the 16-team Big 12.

To lose to your arch-rival should cause you to look inward and ask yourself some tough questions. To lose to your arch-rival (by 24 points) for the third straight season, seventh straight in Lincoln, and tenth time in 11 tries should cause a full and total examination of the program, top to bottom. All the way down to the studs, you need answers.

A massive offseason has arrived for Matt Rhule and Nebraska. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

The 2025 Nebraska football season finished without the program making any progress towards their next goals. The kindest I can be is to say they finished by spinning their wheels. But if you’re spinning your wheels in year three, isn’t that a step back?

“That’s unacceptable,” Matt Rhule said of Nebraska’s 40-16 loss to Iowa on Friday.

He might as well have been describing the entire season.

Agree or disagree, if you have a comment for Josh, send him an email: joshpeterson.huskermax@gmail.com

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