The Link Between Winning and Recruiting Success at Nebraska

For years, Nebraska fans have asked the same question: What will it take to get back to relevance?

The simple answer might be landing better players, but the path to those players is built on winning. According to national recruiting analysts, the formula is clear: sustained on-field success, typically in the range of 9 to10 wins, is essential to assembling a recruiting class capable of transforming a program into a national contender.

To test that theory, I looked at the top 10 recruiting classes from each of the past four cycles and averaged the number of regular-season wins those teams recorded the year prior.

2021 Team Recruiting Rankings according to 247Sports. | Graphic By: Trevor Tarr

2021 was no surprise, with perennial powerhouses like Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson leading the pack among the top recruiting classes. However, several teams on the list stood out for different reasons. While programs like Georgia, Alabama, and Notre Dame enjoyed perfect or near-perfect seasons, some schools didn’t live up to the expectations set by their recruiting rankings. For example, USC landed the No. 7-ranked class but stumbled to a disappointing 4-8 record that season. Similarly, LSU finished at .500, and Texas A&M, despite a solid campaign, lost four regular-season games.

The average win total for the top 10 recruiting classes in 2021 was 9.1 wins during the 12-game regular season. While this statistic focuses solely on the regular season, it’s worth noting that Georgia defeated Alabama to win the National Championship, and all of these teams, except Texas A&M, which opted out due to COVID, participated in a bowl game.

2022 Team Recruiting Rankings according to 247Sports. | Graphic By: Trevor Tarr

The following year, 2022, featured seven of the same teams from the previous year’s top 10 recruiting classes, with Texas A&M taking the No. 1 spot. Although earning back-to-back top ten recruiting classes, head coach Jimbo Fisher again fell short, leading the Aggies to a disappointing 5-7 record. Following the season, Fisher was fired, despite his $77 million buyout.

While Oklahoma nearly joined Texas A&M in missing bowl eligibility, the rest of the teams performed largely as expected. Michigan, Clemson, and Georgia all won their respective conference titles, with Georgia capturing its second national championship in as many years. This trend reinforces the idea that landing high-profile recruits generally correlates with winning more games.

The average win total for the 2022 top 10 recruiting classes was 9.2, slightly higher than the previous year, highlighting a group of teams that won roughly three-quarters of their regular-season games on average.

2023 Team Recruiting Rankings according to 247Sports. | Graphic By: Trevor Tarr

In 2023, five teams returned to the top 10 from the year prior, with the top four all finishing the regular season with just one loss or better. Texas and Alabama earned spots in the final four-team College Football Playoff, though both came up short in the semifinals. The average regular-season win total among the top 10 recruiting classes climbed to 9.7, the highest mark yet, despite underwhelming seasons from USC and Miami dragging the number down.

Notably, Michigan went on to win the national championship that year without a top 10 class in 2023, though it’s worth noting the Wolverines landed the No. 9 overall class in 2022, further reinforcing the link between elite recruiting and championship contention.

2024 Team Recruiting Rankings according to 247Sports | Graphic By: Trevor Tarr

The 2024 recruiting cycle featured seven returning teams from the previous year’s top 10, and nine of the ten had appeared on at least one of the four lists reviewed. Five of these programs went on to earn spots in the 2024 College Football Playoff, with No. 6 Ohio State ultimately claiming the national title over No. 10 Notre Dame.

While Alabama and Miami narrowly missed the playoff, newcomer Auburn fell short of bowl eligibility despite hauling in the No. 7-ranked class. The average win total once again came in at 9.2 across a 12-game regular season, effectively rounding out a four-year sample that highlights the strong correlation between elite recruiting and on-field success.

While the players in these classes were only freshmen in the season following their recruitment, impact contributions are always possible, just ask Dylan Raiola.

Nebraska football player looking for teammates down the field — Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola in 14-7 win over Rutgers | Dylan Widger / USA TODAY Sports

So, what does this mean for Nebraska? The blueprint is clear. Teams that consistently recruit at a top 15 or top 10 level aren’t doing so by accident, they’re winning games, competing for conference titles, and cementing themselves in the national spotlight.

For Nebraska, 2025 represents a golden opportunity to follow that path. If Matt Rhule’s team can break through with 8 or 9 wins this fall, it won’t just be a sign of progress; it could be the spark that changes how top-tier recruits view the program. Winning creates buzz, credibility, and momentum, and in today’s recruiting landscape, that’s half the battle.

Nebraska football coach Matt Rhule with 2026 commits Dayton Raiola (middle) and Claude Mpouma (right). | @c_pu_ma_/Instagram

For far too long, Nebraska coaches and fans alike have watched elite recruits take visits to Lincoln, rave about the facilities, the fan base, and the atmosphere, only to ultimately commit elsewhere.

Why?

The lack of recent on-field success.

The reality is, today’s recruits aren’t old enough to remember the dominance that once defined Nebraska football. They didn’t grow up watching the Huskers compete for national titles, they only know what they’ve seen in the past decade. Because of this, Rhule understands that history alone won’t win battles. Results will.

Team Meeting Room inside the Tom Osborne Legacy Complex. | Nebraska Athletics

With a reloaded roster, rising expectations, and a coaching staff that’s shown they can compete on the recruiting trail, the Huskers are positioned to take that next step.

An 8- or 9-win season in 2025 would mean more than just a sigh of relief. It means closing the gap between contender and pretender. It’s no longer just about building relationships or showing off the new facilities. Top prospects want to see results, and in year three under Matt Rhule, Nebraska has a real chance to deliver them. If they do, don’t be surprised when the Huskers start showing up in the top 15 or even top 10 of recruiting rankings again.

Everything else is already in place, add winning to the mix, and suddenly, there’s very little separating Nebraska from the nation’s elite.

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