The Numbers Agree - This Was a Major Disappointment for the Huskers

Over the past few weeks, I’ve written my post-game reviews highlighting the resilience Nebraska has shown with a pair of come-from-behind victories. This week, there was no such comeback— not even much of an attempt at one. Dylan Raiola made some heroic plays – completing a pass while parallel to the ground and another one with his left hand. All of it was in vain, as the Huskers failed to get the ball into the endzone even once. The loss ranks as one of the most disappointing games for the Huskers in years.

All of the Huskers’ flaws from earlier this year were on full display in this game. The Gophers’ nine sacks were the most allowed by the Huskers since Oklahoma also took Zac Taylor to the ground nine times in 2005. This ties the program record for sacks allowed in a game. The Huskers lost 63 yards via sacks against Minnesota, which contributed to their 14th-lowest yardage output in a game in the last 30 years.

Nebraska was dominant in all facets of the game against Minnesota. | Game On Paper

Five of the Gophers’ sacks came on second-down plays. Nebraska outgained Minnesota by a comfortable margin on first down plays—6.5 yards versus 4.8. However, those sacks pushed the Huskers back, resulting in an average third-down distance to go of 8.5 yards (compared to just 5.5 for Minnesota). Both teams had 12 third-down opportunities, and although Minnesota only converted two more first downs on those (5 versus 3), they averaged 6.9 yards to Nebraska’s 5.7 on third down. Minnesota was able to comfortably convert its third-down plays, which was demoralizing for Nebraska.

Special teams have been a bright spot for the Huskers all season. They were also quiet in this game. For the first time all season, Nebraska lost the average starting field position against its opponent. In a game where Nebraska desperately needed a spark, Jacory Barney Jr. was quiet as a return man. He had his first return opportunity with the Huskers down one with a minute left in the half. He lost 8 yards on the return, and Nebraska failed to get past their 25-yard line before halftime.

The Huskers entered as a comfortable favorite, but couldn't respond. | Game On Paper

In terms of advanced metrics, this game was one of the worst losses of the Matt Rhule era at Nebraska. It’s the fifth-lowest net EPA* per play allowed (Huskers’ EPA per play on offense minus opponents’ EPA per play on offense). Only the 2023 Maryland loss and the 2024 Indiana, USC, and UCLA losses were worse.

*EPA (Expected Points Added) assigns a “point” value for each play to distribute scoring action to each play and not just the touchdown, field goal, etc.

This performance ranked as the 10th-worst net success rate (Husker’s offensive success rate minus opponent’s offensive success rate) during the Rhule era. It’s the second time this season Nebraska has lost the success rate battle, with Cincinnati being the other game.

ELO ratings are a measure that helps gauge a program’s trend. Every game can increase or decrease points based on each team’s rating before the game. Before this game, Nebraska had its 8th-highest net ELO advantage of the Rhule era over an opponent. It was only the second loss during Rhule’s tenure with such an advantage (the 2023 Colorado game had a higher one).

The narrative heading into the season was “Matt Rhule Year 3”. At Temple and Baylor, his teams made significant progress in their third seasons. Throughout the non-conference games, this team appeared capable of winning more than 10 games in 2025. This loss marks a major setback for Matt Rhule and Nebraska. Minnesota’s 18-point victory over Nebraska is the largest margin of victory against a Matt Rhule-coached team in his third or fourth year at a program.

The upcoming week will reveal a lot about these coaches and this team.

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