Analytics Review: Resiliency Becoming a Theme for the Huskers

For the second consecutive week, Nebraska managed to erase a deficit and win a football game.

They also won their second one-score victory of the season, an area where they have struggled significantly in recent years. The theme in last week’s review was resilience. After a second gritty win in a row, resilience is becoming a theme for this team. After years of playing well and finding ways to lose close games, the Huskers are doing some things very poorly and still finding ways to win. This gives Nebraska a bright future.

The Huskers did everything possible to give away the game. They nearly extended a three-possession lead before halftime when Dylan Raiola’s pass was intercepted while trying to throw the ball out of bounds. This play shifted the win probability by about 30% in favor of the Terps. In the third quarter, another interception, this time returned for a touchdown, swung the win probability another 30% toward the Terps.

Maryland was expected to win for a significant stretch of the game. | Game on Paper

Game On Paper had Michigan State favored to beat the Huskers for eight plays last week. Maryland was favored for over 40 plays in this game. Yet, the Huskers again found a way to make a comeback. While Jacory Barney’s 45-yard catch last week was the biggest play in the game (4.99 EPA), Emmett Johnson’s 50-yard run this week didn’t quite have the same impact. It still accounted for 3.66 points in the Huskers’ favor, the largest of any non-turnover or non-scoring play.

Maryland succeeded on defense by making big plays, as they have all season. The three interceptions and a sack gave the Terps a strong chance to win, but apart from those moments, they surrendered a lot of yardage. The Huskers averaged 8.97 yards per play (96th percentile) and had a 48% success rate (80th percentile). Maryland also only managed to stuff (a run for negative yards) three of Nebraska’s runs.

The Huskers were able to move the ball down the field, outside of some big mistakes. | Game on Paper

After the Michigan loss, I mentioned that the success rate would be a helpful indicator of Nebraska’s ability to score in the future. Nebraska demonstrated its ability to sustain drives effectively during its game-winning march down the field to end the game.

Apart from the turnovers, one major concern for Nebraska is the middle eight. These are the four minutes before and after halftime. This was the second consecutive week the Huskers have “lost” (worst cumulative EPA) against their opponents during these plays. This game demonstrated how crucial these plays can be. The Huskers could have taken a 17-point lead into halftime if they had won the four minutes before the break. Instead, a turnover and two effective Maryland drives resulted in the Huskers being tied with Maryland before they got an opportunity for a real drive.

A win, even if it's not perfect, beats a loss, and that’s what Nebraska achieved here. Yes, Nebraska threw too many interceptions and gave up too many passing yards, but key special teams plays and a steady drive at the end of the game led to a road victory. There’s still plenty Nebraska can improve on, but they’ve now moved the ball successfully against three conference opponents. If they keep this up, they’ll keep winning football games.

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