Northwestern Football: 2021 Season Preview and Predictions
The Wildcats are just 51 days away from kickoff at Ryan Field and the start of the campaign to win the Big Ten West for the second straight year. After a record-breaking NFL Draft, which saw two Northwestern players chosen in the first round, the Wildcats return just 34% of their total production from last season—which is 126th in the FBS, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly and his Returning Production For 2021 rankings. When Connelly ranked the returning production in 2019 for SB Nation, the Wildcats were 72nd in the country. Northwestern went 3-9 that season, but Pat Fitzgerald’s team has a stronger foundation now.
Northwestern's schedule is relatively favorable, as the non-conference slate is not daunting and the ‘Cats avoid the Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions in their crossover games. Will Northwestern continue trending up or will there be a repeat of 2019? Let’s take a look at how the Wildcats might fare against their opponents this season.
Friday, September 3: Michigan State
After the Spartans spoiled Northwestern’s perfect regular season last year, the Wildcats would love to open the season with a win against Sparty under the lights at Ryan Field. Mel Tucker is in his second season in East Lansing and has had some time to craft his new team after being a late hire in 2020 and facing COVID-19 issues last season when MSU finished 2-5. The biggest thing Tucker’s team has going for them is that they return 80% of their offensive production from last season, and Temple graduate transfer QB Anthony Russo has no shortage of experience. Russo is fighting Payton Thorne, who is in his third year with the Spartans, for the starting job. Michigan State took advantage of the transfer portal on defense as well over the last few months, pulling in former Alabama CB Ronald Williams, former Louisville CB Marqui Lowery and former Michigan LB Ben VanSumeren.
Prediction: Northwestern’s young team will take a few games to click. The Spartans overpower the 'Cats in a close one.
Saturday, September 11: Indiana State
The only FCS team on Northwestern’s schedule this season is Indiana State. The Sycamores elected not to play the spring season that the rest of the Missouri Valley Conference played a few months ago citing a lack of recovery time between spring contests and a fall 2021 season. Instead, they spent the spring preparing for their season which begins Aug. 28. Northwestern is the second game on their docket. When the Sycamores last saw the field in 2019, they finished the season 5-7 overall and 3-5 within the MVC. The offense struggled, scoring just 19.6 points per game. Top QB Kurtis Wilderman and leading WR Dante Hendrix return, but the Sycamores will likely still struggle to score against Pat Fitzgerald’s team.
Prediction: Northwestern cruises to its first victory of the season.
Saturday, September 18: at Duke
The ‘Cats are currently 9.5-point favorites for their trip to Wade Wallace Stadium to take on a floundering Duke team. The Blue Devils finished last in the ACC in 2020 with a final record of 2-9, and their only wins came against a dismal Syracuse team and Charlotte. They lost several starters including starting quarterback and Clemson transfer Chase Brice. Graduate student Gunner Holmberg will take over in the pocket, but he has zero collegiate starts, had just 25 pass attempts last year, and will be working behind a young offensive line. Speaking of offensive changes, head coach David Cutcliffe shuffled almost his entire offensive staff and turned play calling over to new co-offensive coordinator Jeff Faris, a former Duke safety from 2008-2011. Duke’s defense was the fifth-worst amongst Power 5 teams last year, giving up 38 points per game.
Prediction: It will be interesting to see if Cutcliffe’s offensive changes help the Blue Devils return to being a competitive opponent, but it will take some time. Northwestern should be able to handle business in Durham.
Saturday, September 25: Ohio University
Ohio played just three games in 2020, finishing the season with a 2-1 record, and they have a new head coach in Tim Albin after Frank Solich stepped down this morning. They return two mobile quarterbacks in Kurtis Rouke and Armani Rogers (who played for three years at UNLV before moving to Athens last year), and their wide receiver and running back rooms both have solid talent. The defense is anchored by fifth-year safety Jarren Hampton Jr. who recorded 71 tackles in a breakout junior year in 2019. Ohio only gave up 16.7 points per game last year, good for seventh-best in the FBS. Seven of their 11 starters from that defense return, so expect a decent defensive showing from Ohio.
Prediction: Connelly projects the Bobcats have a 35% chance to win this game, so while the game should not be overlooked, a win is certainly doable for Northwestern.
Saturday, October 2: at Nebraska
Nebraska returns nearly it’s entire defense, setting up this game to be a good ole fashioned Big Ten West slugfest with a final score somewhere around 13-10. There is immense pressure on Huskers' head coach Scott Frost to turn his alma mater around, and he is running out of time. Adrian Martinez returns for his fourth year under center, and the offense will need to put up more than just 23.1 points per game like they did last year to have a shot in the West. Nebraska has 88% of their defensive production returning including their leading tacklers from last year, JoJo Domann and Will Honas, although Honas suffered a knee injury and his return date is undetermined.
Prediction: This game could go either way for the Wildcats. Frost certainly needs it more than Fitz.
Saturday, October 16: Rutgers
Rutgers won three games against an all-Big Ten schedule last year after failing to win a single conference game in the previous two seasons. While Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano certainly has his team trending in the right direction, they need more time. Last season the Scarlet Knights were second-to-last in both total offense and total defense in the conference, tallying 339.1 yards per game while ceding 449.1. Noah Vedral returns at quarterback and will have to improve significantly to put Rutgers in a position to win this game. He completed 61.5% of his passes in 2020, but threw eight interceptions and just nine touchdown passes.
Prediction: Northwestern grabs a win for homecoming weekend.
Saturday, October 23: at Michigan
Despite Michigan’s recent struggles—they finished 2-4 last season—the Big House should never be overlooked. Michigan will be the more talented team for this one, but UM head coach Jim Harbaugh struggled with multiple less-talented teams last year. If Michigan’s defense is even remotely close to how terrible it was last season, the Wolverines are in trouble. While the maize and blue should be improved, it would be difficult for a Michigan team to give up more than 434 yards and 35 points per game as they did last year. This game is late enough in the season where Michigan’s presumed starting quarterback Cade McNamara should be pretty comfortable in his position.
Prediction: If this game was in Evanston, Northwestern would have a shot. Unfortunately for the ‘Cats, expect a much improved defense and a challenging offense in Ann Arbor.
Saturday, October 30: Minnesota
Had a few plays gone differently for the Gophers in 2020, the discussion around head coach P.J. Fleck’s team would likely be much different. They finished the season 3-4, but they were a couple of overtime games away from going 5-2. Minnesota has one of the country’s most veteran teams. The entire offensive line returns, and Mohamed Ibrahim is an elite running back who averaged over five yards per carry and had 15 touchdowns last season in just seven games. If quarterback Tanner Morgan looks more like 2019 Tanner Morgan and less like 2020 Tanner Morgan, the Gophers could contend for the West title. On the defensive side of the ball, Minnesota returns 10 of 11 starters, which places them in the Top 20 in the nation in terms of returning production on that side of the ball.
Prediction: Northwestern will struggle to stop both Morgan and Ibrahim, and Minnesota cruises to a decently easy win.
Saturday, November 13: at Wisconsin
Depending on how the Minnesota game plays out, this game could have implications for Indianapolis. According to Bill Connelly’s production rankings, Wisconsin is returning the second-most total production in the Big Ten (83%) and is #14 nationally. While the Badgers offense was pedestrian following QB Graham Mertz’s initial performance against Illinois last year where he threw five touchdown passes, their defense was the best in the Big Ten, giving up just 299.9 yards per game. Like the Nebraska game, this game has the potential for a lot of punting.
Prediction: Northwestern’s defense will get stops, but the Badger’s raw talent and experience will win the day.
Saturday, November 20: Purdue at Wrigley Field
The ‘Cats will face Purdue just down the street at Wrigley Field in the second of a five-game series the school has scheduled with the Chicago Cubs. 2019 Big Ten Freshman of the Year David Bell is a shifty, quick wide receiver who has big shoes to fill after the Boilermakers lost standout Rondale Moore to the Arizona Cardinals in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft. While Purdue returns a sizable portion of their offense otherwise, the offense has not been the problem in recent years. Purdue has a new defensive coordinator in Brad Lambert who takes over a defense which failed to hold a single opponent under 20 points last season.
Prediction: Purdue’s offense can score, but Jim O'Neil's defense anchored by All-American safety Brandon Joseph will have significant experience by this point in the season. ‘Cats win at the Friendly Confines.
Saturday, November 27: at Illinois
First-year head coach Bret Bielema has his work cut for him, inheriting a team with just eight wins over the last three seasons. Brandon Peters returns as Illinois’ quarterback behind an experienced offensive line, but the Fighting Illini were decimated by the transfer portal when it comes to skill position players. Illinois’ run defense last season was terrible, giving up 230.1 rushing yards per game, and they allowed Northwestern to run for 411 yards in last year’s matchup. Illinois lacks defensive experience, as they lost nearly half of their defensive production, returning only 61%.
Prediction: Northwestern’s talent will allow the ‘Cats to cruise to victory Thanksgiving weekend. The Land of Lincoln trophy will remain in Evanston.
Saturday, December 4: Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis
If they can get there, third time’s the charm, right?
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