Notre Dame Basketball's Chances at Pittsburgh According to ESPN Computers

Notre Dame faces what feels like a must-win Saturday at Pittsburgh if it hopes to make the ACC Tournament

Feb 14, 2026; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish guard Cole Certa (5) dribbles down the court against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets during the second half at Purcell Pavilion at the Joyce Center. | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

The 2025-26 basketball season hasn't gone according to plan for Notre Dame, as the Fighting Irish are trying to rally and make the ACC Tournament.

The conference tournament doesn't let every team in, instead giving bids to the top 15 finishers. Notre Dame picked up an important win over the weekend as it routed Georgia Tech and moved out of the conference cellar for the time being.

However, work remains for Notre Dame if it wants to get even a single postseason game. It currently sits in 15th place in the ACC, a half game ahead of Boston College for the last tournament spot.

Micah Shrewsberry's Fighting Irish face what feels like a must-win in regards to making the ACC Tournament on Saturday, as they travel to take on a Pittsburgh team that has struggled to just a 2-11 mark in conference play this year.

ESPN BPI Predicts Notre Dame at Pittsburgh Matchup

this man was in his element#GoIrish | @CarsonTowt pic.twitter.com/vw9RJpPSal

— Notre Dame Men's Basketball (@NDmbb) February 14, 2026

Notre Dame shot extremely well from beyond the arc when it beat Georgia Tech on Saturday and will look to do that again when it travels to Pittsburgh.

However, the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) doesn't love Notre Dame's chances. It gives Pittsburgh the slight nod as the Panthers have a 54.4% chance at victory to the 45.6% chance it gives Notre Dame.

A win for Notre Dame would go a long way in creating a separation from it and Boston College, Pittsbrugh, and Georgia Tech, as those teams make up the bottom four of the ACC standings currently.

ACC Tournament Doesn't Accept Ever Member School

Although dark days have fallen upon the Notre Dame men's basketball team, it hasn't gotten so dark that it has ever missed the ACC Tournament.

Then again, it's only been one season, since California and Stanford joined the conference, that the ACC has started leaving teams at home.

Notre Dame made the conference tournament by a fairly safe margin last year after going 8-12 in conference play during the regular season.

North Carolina State, Boston College, and Miami (FL) all failed to make the conference tournament last season.

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Takeaway

I'm not ridiculous enough to think Notre Dame making the ACC Tournament will be the start of something great that sends the Irish on a magical run through Charlotte.

However, it's the embarrassment I want Notre Dame to be saved from. Sure, in all likelihood making the ACC Tournament would mean playing 40 more minutes and losing a First Round game.

Still, consider the ACC Tournament a party, and one that I'd be really embarrassed to not get an invitation to.