Why There's an Ideal Spot for Notre Dame to Appear in the Preseason Associated Press Top 25

It's something that doesn't get talked about enough as it relates to the Associated Press Poll. Before you tell me that "polls don't matter" and that "preseason polls are the most pointless thing in the world," let me stop you.

I agree that playing actual football games matters more than preseason rankings. Duh.

But in the preseason AP Top 25, Notre Dame fans (and really all fans) should be aware of some noticeable trends as it relates to having national championship DNA.

Historically, being ranked No. 4 - like the Irish are - is just fine.

History tells us that preseason No. 1 is a death sentence, but 2-5? Not so much.

Since 2005, the preseason No. 1 team in the AP Poll has gone on to win the national championship once. That's it.

That team was 2017 Alabama, aka the squad that barely made the 4-team field to begin with and needed a halftime quarterback change and overtime to overcome a double-digit deficit against Georgia.

That's a 21-year sample size, which not so coincidentally lined up with the internet age in a sport with an 8-month offseason. Make of that what you will. I make of it that being a preseason No. 1 often comes with an enormous burden for 18- to 22-year-olds who hear all offseason about how great they're going to be.

Since 2005, 15 of the 21 national champions were ranked 2-5 in the preseason AP Poll.

Let me back up for a second because I fear that some of you just ignored that all-important stat that rarely gets discussed even though it's too overwhelming not to be a thing.

Since 2005, 15 of the 21 (71.4%) national champions were ranked in spots 2-5 in the preseason AP Poll.

Just a coincidence? Hardly. You already know that just one preseason No. 1 won it all in that stretch, but just two teams ranked 6-10 in the preseason poll became champs (2006 Florida and 2019 LSU) while just three teams ranked 11-25 were title teams (2010 Auburn, 2013 Florida State and 2025 Indiana).

Of course, some will point to what Indiana just did and assume that the trend is suddenly dead.

It's perhaps providing more hope than ever for teams outside of the traditional national championship discussion, but look at the five years before that. All of those 2020s national champs were No. 2-5 in the preseason Poll.

The Playoff era has had 12 national champs, and 10 of them started between No. 2-5.

That's where Notre Dame should want to be come Monday, which seems entirely possible after the Irish cracked the preseason Coaches Poll at No. 5. It'd be a rare feat for the Irish, who haven't earned a single No. 1 vote in the preseason AP Poll since 2006.

That year was also one of just two instances in the 21st century in which the Irish started No. 2-5, with the other being Year 1 of the Marcus Freeman era in 2022. In both instances, the Irish suffered 3-plus losses and finished outside the top 15 in the AP Poll.

Consider that a reminder that starting in the No. 2-5 range isn't a full-proof method for winning a title. Obviously, not all of those teams will even stay in the title hunt. Last year, teams No. 2-5 featured two teams (Penn State and Clemson) who went on to lose six games.

If Notre Dame joins that dubious club with a schedule that yielded overwhelming preseason odds to make the 12-team Playoff, we're having different conversations about the direction of the program. While strength of schedule should never be factored into a preseason ranking, it certainly has shaped expectations for the Irish in 2026.

One could argue that Notre Dame didn't have nearly as high of preseason expectations in 2012 (preseason unranked) or 2024 (preseason No. 7) when those squads went on to play in the national championship. Perhaps we'll look back on 2026 as a year in which the expectations were indeed too great.

But if Notre Dame is ever going to win its first national championship since 1988, it'll have to find a way to manage the pressure that comes with it.

A preseason ranking somewhere in the No. 2-5 range might just be the perfect preamble to end the drought.

Take the 4.

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