CJ Carr's Heisman Odds Take Major Drop Against Michigan State

CJ Carr's Heisman candidacy took a major dip on Saturday after failing to throw a touchdown on Saturday against Michigan State despite the Irish coming out on top, 27-10.

Carr didn't play bad -- 18 of 24 for 234 yards -- but he didn't throw a touchdown pass and the Notre Dame offense didn't exactly light up the scoreboard.

Are you pleased with CJ Carr's performance? pic.twitter.com/Ii0ULBnZlO
— THE ECHOES (@TheEchoesNDpod) September 20, 2026

Carr did record his first rushing touchdown in the win but he hasn't exactly been a dual-threat quarterback this season. Carr has only three net total rushing yards through three games and despite having zero turnovers, he lags many other quarterbacks in passing yards and passing touchdowns.

CJ Carr scoring through the air AND on the ground. 💪

📺 Michigan State at Notre Dame on NBC & Peacock pic.twitter.com/HLEGciZuws
— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) September 20, 2026

Where does Carr now stand in the Heisman Race?

Carr had the fourth-best Heisman odds as of last weekend, but now he's not even in the top five. As of Saturday night, Carr is 15/1 (+1500) to win the Heisman, via DraftKings, by far and away his worst odds all season.

Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (+295) is now the favorite to win the Heisman, followed by Miami quarterback Darian Mensah (+340), Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (+900), Texas quarterback Arch Manning (+1200), Miami wide receiver Malachi Toney and Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor (+1400).

Carr's stats are better than they look

For some reason, touchdowns and yards seem to be the end all, be all when it comes to the Heisman. And even though Carr has done ok in both categories -- 726 yards and seven touchdowns (six passing, one rushing) -- he's really set himself apart in two categories -- completion percentage and turnovers.

Carr has yet to throw an interception or fumble this season and has completed nearly 73% of his passes. Those are incredible numbers and if he continues to take care of the ball and complete passes at a 70% clip, he'll find his way back into the forefront of the Heisman race.

What does Carr need to do to get back into the Heisman Race?

Not a whole lot. Throwing a touchdown or two each week would certainly help, but as long Carr continues to take care of the football and complete passes at a high percentage, the touchdowns and yards will take care of it self.

It's pretty unlikely Carr goes another game without a touchdown pass, so as long as he continues to protect the ball at an elite level, he'll be just fine.

What games does Carr need to perform his best in?

Carr has a chance to perform on the big state against two top teams, and those two games are his best chance to get back into the Heisman race.

BYU entered this week ranked No. 11 in the country, and as long as the Cougars continue to win, there's a pretty good chance they'll be a Top 10 team when they face ND on October 17th.

The other big game is on November 5th against No. 5 Miami (FL). If Carr balls out in both those games and the Irish win both those games and are still undefeated, Carr will likely skyrocket in the Heisman race.

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