ESPN FPI Projects Notre Dame vs Wisconsin - Fair or Unfair?

ESPN's computer model doesn't see Wisconsin as a threat to Notre Dame, but is that actually true?

Head coach Marcus Freeman during a Notre Dame football practice at Irish Athletic Center on Thursday, Aug. 6, 2026, in South Bend. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Notre Dame fans have to wait a little longer than others this year as the Fighting Irish officially kick off their season that is full of national championship hopes on Sunday night in a Shamrock Series game against Wisconsin.

The betting lines strongly favor Notre Dame, as they make Marcus Freeman's squad about a three-touchdown pick, but what do the computers have to say?

ESPN operates the Football Power Index each year and, to its credit, had Notre Dame as the third best team in the country at the end of the 2025 regular season, even though the Irish were left out of the dance.

ESPN FPI Projects Notre Dame vs Wisconsin Outcome

ESPN has put out its game projections for the season and, based on the FPI formula, makes Notre Dame a massive favorite against Wisconsin.

The outlet gives Notre Dame a 94.3% chance of pulling off the victory on Sunday night, with Wisconsin getting just a 5.7% shot.

It’s officially GAME WEEK

The 2026 Shamrock Series presented by @MyCreditUnion1

🆚 Wisconsin
📍 Green Bay, Wisconsin
📆 Sunday, Sept. 6
⏰ 7:30 PM ET
📺 NBC | Peacock#GoIrish☘️ pic.twitter.com/eBsiE145hA

— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) August 31, 2026

Is that fair or unfair?

Let's take a look what it says about the rest of Notre Dame's season first, before offering an opinion on that.

ESPN FPI Projects Remainder of Notre Dame Season

For comparison, here is how FPI projects Notre Dame's chances in each of its 12 games this season.

vs. Wisconsin: 94.3%
vs. Rice: 96.8%
at Purdue: 95.6%
at North Carolina: 88.6%
vs. Stanford: 97.9%
at BYU: 76.0%
vs. Navy: 96.0%
vs. Miami: 70.2%
at Boston College: 97.9%
vs. SMU: 89.5%
at Syracuse: 95.2%

FPI also gives Notre Dame the following chances for the 2026 season:

Projected record: 10.7-1.3
Make the College Football Playoff: 74.5%
Make National Championship Game: 20.5%
Win National Championship: 11.1%

Notre Dame trails only Ohio State (16.6%) and Texas (13.1%) in having the best chances to win it all.

Nick Shepkowski's Thoughts

Wisconsin is a team that went to the transfer portal in a massive way this off-season. I get using player ratings from previous schools to create this formula, but when you look at the numbers, is Notre Dame's chances of beating Wisconsin (94.3%) really, essentially on par with it winning at Purdue (95.6%)?

Right now, I would feel comfortable in betting my right arm that Notre Dame doesn't lose to Purdue later this month. Although I feel great about Notre Dame's chances on Sunday, I don't feel that level of confidence against Wisconsin.

I understand that these computer models are built to eliminate feelings and whatnot, but I have trouble buying into them much this early in the season.

Marcus Freeman was Luke Fickell's DC at Cincinnati.

The Wisconsin head coach was asked about the Notre Dame coach leading up to their big Week 1 matchup at Lambeau Field. pic.twitter.com/9dG9vBpo2G

— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) August 31, 2026

This formula also needs to be checked for a Texas-bias, historically. The Longhorns have a 13.1% chance to win the national championship?

Alright, I guess I can buy that, but the power index in my head gives Steve Sarkisian at least the same chances of needing to look for a job by January.