Notre Dame's ESPN FPI Ranking, Not Projection, is Most Important

Notre Dame is rated as the best team, but has the third-best championship odds

Nov 7, 2026; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman looks on during the fourth quarter against the Miami Hurricanes at Notre Dame Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

After beating the previously No. 1 Miami, Notre Dame can keep its national championship hopes alive, as it sits three wins away from returning to the College Football Playoff.

ESPN gave Notre Dame a roughly 60% chance to beat Miami last week, and the Fighting Irish were in control of Saturday's showdown for the majority, before a Hurricanes push tightened things to the 31-24 final score.

ESPN updated its Football Power Index numbers after the conclusion of the massive college football weekend, and for the second week in a row, Notre Dame sits in the top spot.

ESPN FPI Top 25 - Following Week 10

ESPN released its latest numbers for the Football Power Index, and here is how the top 25 checked out this week.

25. Missouri (12.9)
24. Texas A&M (13.0)
23. Nebraska (13.3)
22. Oklahoma (13.6)
21. Houston (13.8)
20. Oklahoma State (13.9)
19. South Carolina (14.1)
18. Iowa (14.7)
17. BYU (14.8)
16. USC (14.8)
15. Louisville (14.8)
14. Texas Tech (15.5)
13. Wake Forest (17.9)

12. Ole Miss (18.3)
11. Tennessee (18.5)
10. Utah (18.7)
9. Oregon (19.7)
8. Indiana (21.4)
7. LSU (22.5)
6. Texas (23.9)
5. Ohio State (24.5)
4. Miami, FL (26.0)
3. Alabama (26.1)
2. Georgia (27.2)
1. Notre Dame (27.3)

Noteworthy, and missing from the top 25 is unbeaten UCLA as the formula ranks the 9-0 Bruins as the 27th team nationally (12.6).

ESPN FPI Projects Notre Dame vs Boston College Outcome

The updated numbers for Notre Dame's three remaining games have been released.

FPI gives Notre Dame an overwhelming 98.5% chance to beat Boston College this weekend as the 4-5 Eagles come to South Bend at No. 83 in the rankings and with a -3.7 ranking.

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Game week

Battle for the Frank Leahy Memorial Bowl

🆚 Boston College
📍 South Bend, Indiana
📆 Saturday, Nov. 14
⏰ 3:30 PM ET
📺 NBC | Peacock#GoIrish☘️ | @tirerack pic.twitter.com/hVuI4un7F0

— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) November 9, 2026

The formula also gives Notre Dame understandably high odds of winning the rest of its regular season games:

vs. SMU (11/21): 90.2%
at Syracuse (11/28): 94.2%

Notre Dame's Playoff and Championship Odds via FPI

The game against Miami was clearly Notre Dame's biggest hurdle remaining to make the College Football Playoff, and winning it Saturday has the Irish essentially as a lock to earn a berth.

FPI gives Notre Dame a 92.0% chance to make the playoff now, with an 82.7% chance of winning out, which tells us the win over Miami should carry significant weight in the event something goes terribly wrong over the next three games.

Notre Dame is also given a 30.4% chance to make the title, which is the third-best in the nation, and a 17.2% chance to win it all which is again the third-best chance in the nation, trailing only Georgia and Miami in both.

Georgia, I get as having better chances, as its chances of getting a First Round bye appear better than Notre Dame at this point, but I'm having trouble understanding how a team that Notre Dame now has the head-to-head factor over (which we were told last year, mattered so much...and I'm not arguing against that), has better chances of making the title, despite being rated lower.

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thoughts

As I said about the Miami national championship odds, I would love a bit of an explanation of the numbers behind that.

However, with Notre Dame, the far more important thing is where the Irish are rated in this formula instead of what the percentages say for games the rest of the way.

This math-based formula says that through 10 weeks of the season, Notre Dame would be favored against anyone it plays.

Georgia, a rematch with Miami, Indiana, or whoever.

Notre Dame's championship hopes are very much alive and well.

If Notre Dame takes care of business now in the last three, it throws out the human element that the FPI numbers couldn't account for last season, when Alabama jumped Notre Dame just days after needing a heroic comeback to beat what wound up being a 1-7 Auburn team in SEC play.