Projecting AP Top 25 After College Football Week 10: Notre Dame, Georgia, Utah Make Convincing Cases for No. 1

Yeah, yeah. We get it. The AP Top 25 isn’t as cool anymore now that the College Football Playoff rankings are out. It’s almost like when you were a kid and the newer version of the video game you enjoy playing came out, so the one you spent weeks playing previously suddenly loses its luster.

But I’m here to tell you not to turn your back on the AP Top 25. And you’re probably thinking, Of course he’d say that, he wants me to read his article. But hear me out. There’s a lot of value to be had in looking at teams through the lens of the AP Top 25, even with the CFP rankings floating around. You don’t need me to tell you that the CFP committee’s evaluations can sometimes be shaky. And so, too, can the AP voters’.

But four teams that were ranked higher in last week’s AP poll compared to the CFP rankings won their games this week (UCLA, Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Boise State). And five teams that were ranked higher by the CFP committee lost (Kentucky, Ole Miss, LSU, Missouri and Florida).

What does it mean? We are in for a wild reshuffling of the CFP rankings. Oh, and it means that the AP poll can sometimes serve as a useful checks and balances of the committee’s sometimes wayward logic. Here’s how we see the AP Top 25 playing out this week.

Projected AP Top 25 rankings after Week 10

1. Georgia Bulldogs (8–1, 6–1 SEC)

Week 10: Beat No. 12 Ole Miss, 42–7
Week 11: Vs. Missouri, TBD Saturday

There were games where the Georgia offense excelled but not the defense. There were games where the opposite occurred. But very rarely this season has Kirby Smart’s program put it all together in all three phases. Until Saturday night on the road against the Rebels.

The offense, averaging 12.4 yards per pass attempt and 6.1 yards per carry, gashed the Ole Miss defense and scored touchdowns on four of its first five possessions. On defense, the Dawgs hounded Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss all night long, sacking him five times, sealing any escape lanes out of the pocket and completely stymieing the Ole Miss running game sans Kewan Lacy.

In a season where wacky has been commonplace and few teams have risen to the top, Georgia left no doubt after this beatdown: They’re the top team in the country.

2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8–1)

Week 10: Beat No.1 Miami, 31–24
Week 11: Vs. Boston College, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday

To a certain extent, this was a tale of two halves for Notre Dame. Feeding off the energy at an electric Notre Dame Stadium, the Fighting Irish raced out of the gate, harassing Miami quarterback Darian Mensah defensively while riding CJ Carr, who was throwing darts across the field in the first half, to a 17–3 lead at halftime.

Irish coach Marcus Freeman later said he told his team that at some point in the game, there would be a struggle. And did that turn out to be the case. Miami came out firing in the second half, as Mensah got the ball out quicker and used his legs to escape the rush when he needed to. The Hurricanes scored 14 straight points to get within a touchdown, which is when Carr and the Irish answered with a methodical touchdown drive of their own.

Then, the Irish benefited from the universe perhaps course-correcting, as Miami’s Elija Lofton got both feet down in the end zone for the potential game-tying touchdown catch in the fourth quarter on a fourth down, only to lose possession of the ball as he stepped out of bounds. Yes, it came without Malachi Toney across the field, but this was the kind of signature win Freeman’s program needed.

3. Utah Utes (9–0, 6–0 Big 12)

Week 10: Beat No. 7 BYU, 28–20
Week 11: At Arizona, TBD Saturday

Devon Dampier won’t be in the Heisman Trophy conversation, but he should be after a big-time performance in the Holy War against the Cougars. Dampier accounted for four total touchdowns, made big plays downfield with his arm and kept the chains moving with his legs, remaining one of the more difficult quarterbacks in the country to keep in the pocket.

But if we’re handing out hockey stars—and Dampier certainly deserves at least one—the Utah defense deserves all three. After coughing up its fair share of big plays and 20 unanswered points to close out the first half, the Utes were nothing short of dominant on the defensive end in the second half. They permitted just 61 passing yards in the second half and picked off BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier three times, including a pivotal pick on the goal line that prevented a potential game-tying touchdown. Ace its next test, a road date against Arizona, and an undefeated regular season is looking increasingly likely for Morgan Scalley’s Utes in his first year at the helm.

4. UCLA Bruins (9–0, 6–0 Big Ten)

Week 10: Beat Minnesota, 34–20
Week 11: Vs. Illinois, 9 p.m. ET Friday

It wasn’t a flawless game—he had two turnovers—but in many ways, this was Ty Dieffenbach’s best game. He threw for a career-high 303 passing yards and found senior Aidan Mizell for not one but two 75-yard touchdown strikes in the fourth quarter that ultimately helped the Bruins put the game away. Wayne Knight chugged for 109 rushing yards and a score, but it wasn’t a banner day for the UCLA running game. So the fact that Dieffenbach was so impactful, even as the Bruins continued to deal with injuries up front, was incredibly impressive.

The stat sheet doesn’t really show it, but Sammy Omosigho was a force on the other side of the ball for UCLA, particularly as a run stuffer and in pass coverage. The defense yielded 20 points, the most in a game since September, but held up strong late in the fourth quarter, holding the Golden Gophers to a field goal on their second drive of the quarter and coming up with yet another takeaway to help seal the deal. Despite some skepticism from the CFP committee, UCLA just keeps on winning.

5. Miami Hurricanes (8–1, 6–0 ACC)

Week 10: Lost to No. 4 Notre Dame, 31–24
Week 11: Vs. Duke, noon ET Saturday

Miami Hurricanes, AP Top 25 — Darian Mensah and the Miami Hurricanes fell just short against Notre Dame. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Give Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes credit. It looked like Miami was in danger of getting run out of the building, particularly after a three-and-out to start the second half was followed up by a 56-yard Notre Dame punt return and touchdown drive to create a 24–3 deficit.

But Mensah and Shannon Dawson started to find some more answers against the Notre Dame defense, and the Miami defense started to swarm around the field, clamping down on the run while making things difficult for CJ Carr & Co. on some longer third downs.

The Hurricanes outscored the Fighting Irish 21–14 in the second half but they fell just inches short of tying the game when Lofton came down with the potential game-tying touchdown with two feet in the end zone, only to be ruled incomplete when the ball was batted away as he went out of bounds. As tough as the ending was to digest, this was an incredible effort from the Hurricanes, especially without the dynamic Toney.

6. Indiana Hoosiers (8–1, 5–1 Big Ten)

Week 10: Bye
Week 11: Vs. USC, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday

Curt Cignetti used the bye week to remind the CFP committee of just how stubborn facts can be. We should all be so petty. Indiana hopefully also used the bye week to tighten up on both sides of the ball and get healthy ahead of its last ranked game of the season against USC.

7. Texas Longhorns (7–2, 4–2 SEC)

Week 10: Beat No. 19 Missouri, 34–20
Week 11: At LSU, TBD Saturday

No Trevor Goosby. No Cam Coleman. No Hollywood Smothers. Oh, and a limited Colin Simmons. The excuses were there for Texas if they laid an egg on the road against Missouri. Instead, the Longhorns played one of their best games of the season.

Arch Manning, who has been moving differently since being called out by coach Steve Sarkisian, made some throws emblematic of a top NFL draft pick—and mixed in some head-scratchers—delivering when the Longhorns needed him most, despite being under duress for much of the game.

Defensively, Texas got off the field on third downs, particularly in the fourth quarter and came up with a game-changing play: a forced fumble that was recovered and returned inside the 10-yard line, setting up a touchdown that put Texas ahead by two scores. The Longhorns have some things to clean up—penalties, penalties, penalties—but they’ve won three straight and boast four Top 25 wins this season.

8. Tennessee Volunteers (7–2, 4–2 SEC)

Week 10: Beat No. 8 Kentucky 34–6
Week 11: At Texas A&M, TBD Saturday

Take that, CFP committee! The Volunteers were snubbed by the committee this past Tuesday, but ran out of the tunnel at Neyland Stadium like a team scorned, dominating Kentucky 34–6. The Volunteers threw for just 149 yards, but that isn’t this team’s identity. DeSean Bishop led the way with 109 of the Volunteers’ 240 rushing yards and the Jim Knowles defense, legitimately one of the best in the nation—especially at home—took care of the rest.

Tennessee’s swarming defense racked up eight tackles for loss, four sacks and generated three turnovers, the third of which led to a fourth-quarter touchdown that all but ended the game. Tennessee now boasts two top-10 wins by a combined 44 points, its latest tying for its second-largest top-10 victory since 1936.

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9. Alabama Crimson Tide (7–2, 5–2 SEC)

Week 10: Beat No. 15 LSU, 31–13
Week 11: At Vanderbilt, 12:45 p.m. ET Saturday

LSU coach Lane Kiffin had the walls in the visitor’s locker room painted pink, perhaps in the hopes that it would dim the opposing team’s aggression. The strategy certainly didn’t pay off, as the Crimson Tide took the fight to the Tigers jumping out to a 10–3 first-half lead while stalling two LSU drives, one a turnover on downs, the other an interception.

Keelon Russell, despite receiving no help from his running game, played one of his best games of the season against a ferocious LSU pass rush, completing over 70% of his passes for 206 yards and three scores. If Crimson Tide coach Kalen DeBoer is handing out game balls in the locker room, the defense surely deserves one. This was a clinic in how to play defense in the red zone, as the Tide allowed 457 total yards and multiple trips to the red zone, but yielded just one touchdown all game. Up next is a Vanderbilt team that has dropped five of its last six games.

10. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8–1, 5–1 ACC)

Week 10: Beat Merrimack, 77–0
Week 11: At SMU, noon ET Saturday

Hell hath no fury like a team that felt scorned by the CFP committee. The Demon Deacons got no love from the committee and, to a certain extent, were even doubted by yours truly. So I’m here to give them their flowers after a 77–0 beatdown of Merrimack. Yes, it was a middling Merrimack team. But the Demon Deacons, a great team, did what great teams are supposed to do to a squad like the Warriors: dominated them from start to finish.

With starting quarterback Gio Lopez sidelined due to injury, backup quarterback Steele Pizzella put on a show, throwing for 432 yards, three scores and rushing for another. Please take note of the Wake Forest offense firing on all cylinders without their starting QB, CFP committee. And just how dominant was the Demon Deacons’ defense? Merrimack ran just one play in Wake Forest territory in the first two quarters. That kind of dominance is enough to get into the top 10 of the AP Top 25. It remains to be seen about the CFP.

11. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8–1, 5–1 Big 12)

Week 10: Beat West Virginia, 53–48
Week 11: At Oklahoma State, TBD Saturday

12. BYU Cougars (7–2, 4–2 Big 12)

Week 10: Lost to No. 3 Utah, 28–20
Week 11: Vs. Baylor, TBD Saturday

13. Kentucky Wildcats (7–2, 5–2 SEC)

Week 10: Lost to No. 16 Tennessee, 34–6
Week 11: Vs. Florida, TBD Saturday

14. Houston Cougars (7–2, 4–2 Big 12)

Week 10: Beat Cincinnati, 31–24
Week 11: At Colorado, 10:15 p.m. ET Friday

15. Oregon Ducks (6–3, 4–2 Big Ten)

Week 10: Beat No. 11 Ohio State, 41–28
Week 11: Vs. Michigan, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday

16. USC Trojans (7–2, 4–2 Big Ten)

Week 10: Bye
Week 11: At Indiana, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday

17. Boise State Broncos (8–1, 5–0 Pac-12)

Week 10: Beat Colorado State, 64–38
Week 11: Vs. Oregon State, 6 p.m. ET Saturday

18. Ohio State Buckeyes (6–3, 4–2 Big Ten)

Week 10: Lost to Oregon, 41–28
Week 11: Vs. Northwestern, noon ET Saturday

19. Iowa Hawkeyes (7–2, 4–2 Big Ten)

Week 10: Beat Northwestern, 24–10
Week 11: Vs. Purdue, 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday

20. Ole Miss Rebels (6–3, 4–3 SEC)

Week 10: Lost to No. 2 Georgia, 42–7
Week 11: At Oklahoma, TBD Saturday

21. New Mexico Lobos (8–1, 5–0 Mountain West)

Week 10: Beat Nevada, 31–3
Week 11: Vs. UNLV, 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday

22. South Carolina Gamecocks (6–3, 4–3 SEC)

Week 10: Beat Texas A&M, 17–9
Week 11: At Arkansas, 7:45 p.m. ET Saturday

23. Arizona Wildcats (7–2, 4–2 Big 12)

Week 10: Beat TCU, 29–28
Week 11: Vs. Utah, TBD Saturday

24. LSU Tigers (6–3, 3–3 SEC)

Week 10: Lost to No. 9 Alabama, 31–13
Week 11: Vs. Texas, TBD Saturday

25. SMU Mustangs (7–2, 5–2 ACC)

Week 10: Beat Virginia Tech, 51–28
Week 11: Vs. Wake Forest, noon ET Saturday

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