Despite Predictions For Regression, Notre Dame Is Poised To Reload In 2021
Despite going 33-5 over the last three seasons and earning a pair of berths to the College Football Playoff, Notre Dame is not getting much love from many in the national media.
Notre Dame's "down season" in the last three years was an 11-2 campaign in 2019 in which the Fighting Irish finish ranked 12th in the final Associated Press Poll. In fact, since the post-2016 makeover, Notre Dame has finished 5th, 5th, 11th and 12th in the final AP Poll.
Heavy personnel losses has Sports Illustrated writer Eric Rynston-Lobel feeling like Notre Dame will take a step back in 2021, and he's not alone in this line of thinking.
Here's what Rynston-Lobel wrote about the Irish in an recent article discussing programs that he believes will regress in 2021:
"The Fighting Irish reached the College Football Playoff semifinals, only to fall to Alabama, 31–14. The score might be deceptive, though, as Notre Dame hung well enough with a dominant force. All in all, ’20 was a fantastic season in South Bend.
"Losing Ian Book at quarterback certainly won’t help boost Brian Kelly’s chances of returning to the CFP. Jack Coan, Book's anticipated replacement, had a solid career at Wisconsin; he helped lead the Badgers to a Big Ten West championship and the Rose Bowl in ’19. However, Coan also had Jonathan Taylor running for nearly 150 yards per game in the backfield that year. Coan’s completion percentage was an admirable 69.6%, but having a running back like Taylor takes much of the pressure off the quarterback. It’s also important to note that Coan hasn’t played in a game since Jan. 1, 2020. There will naturally be some rust for him early on while he also works out the kinks of learning a new offense. Notre Dame’s leading rusher from last year, Kyren Williams, will be back, so that helps. Still, the Irish will miss the dual-threat ability of Book.
"Notre Dame will also be replacing four of its five offensive linemen from last year, while the defense is in the hands of new defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman. The former Cincinnati coach has his work cut out for him with the Irish's losing three top playmakers from last year in Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Shaun Crawford and Daelin Hayes. The good news for Freeman, though, is that he might have one of the best defensive backs in college football with Kyle Hamilton returning.
"Overall, Notre Dame should definitely find itself in the AP top 25 come the end of the ’21 season. Just don’t expect to see the same level of magnificence from the blue and gold." - Rynston-Lobel
Should definitely find itself in the Top 25 would certainly be a regression for Notre Dame, which as I mentioned earlier hasn't finished lower than 12th in the last four seasons.
Rynston-Lobel's analysis was solid, even though I don't share his pessimism about the Irish in 2021. The outlook was even more bleak according the 247Sports college football writer Chris Hummer.
Hummer did a series talking about one team on the rise and one team set to tumble in each conference. He chose Notre Dame for his team set to tumble in the ACC.
"Yes, the Irish’s one-year ACC tenure is over so we're bending the rules a bit in making them the conference's designated tumbler. Whatever — given last year’s mostly all-ACC schedule, the options are limited in identifying teams that will see a major win percentage regression as the schedule will be easier for most ACC teams. That’s not necessarily the case for Notre Dame. While Notre Dame’s 2021 slate isn’t crippling, there are four games on the schedule (Wisconsin, Cincinnati, USC, Notre Carolina) against what I’d consider preseason top 15 teams. That’s in addition to difficult ACC tests against both Virginia programs and a trip to Stanford.
"Brian Kelly has been the definition of consistency recently, winning 10-plus games for four straight years. The schedule might allow that to happen this season – 10-3 seems possible – but it’s difficult to envision the Irish team winning 90% of their games again. Notre Dame lost too much from its 2020 roster. The heart of the offense (Ian Book) and defense (Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah) depart as did 47% of the team’s production last year – the fifth-most nationally.
"Notre Dame is recruiting too well to crater. But this projects as a transition season before the Irish can truly contend again." - Hummer
MY RESPONSE
I think the view that Notre Dame is going to take a step back, especially the analysis by Hummer, shows a lack of faith, or perhaps a lack of knowledge in his case, of what Notre Dame has coming back. It's not like we haven't seen Notre Dame suffer huge personnel losses in the past and not only bounce back, but perform even better.
After the 2011 season the Irish lost first-round draft picks Harrison Smith (90 tackles, 10 break ups in 2011) and Michael Floyd (100 catches, 1,147 yards, 9 TDs in 2011) as well as Robert Blanton, Darius Fleming, Aaron Lynch, Jonas Gray, Ethan Johnson, Gary Gray, Taylor Dever and Trevor Robinson from its starting lineup.
That was from an 8-5 squad, but the next season Notre Dame went 12-1. Notre Dame is a much healthier program now than it was then.
After the 2017 season Notre Dame lost Top 10 NFL Draft picks Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey as well as running back Josh Adams (1,430 rushing yards in 2017), leading receiver Equanimeous St. Brown, wideout Kevin Stepherson, tight end Durham Smythe, linebackers Nyles Morgan and Greer Martini, starting safety Nick Coleman, cornerback Nick Watkins and starting end Jay Hayes.
Notre Dame went 10-3 with all those players on the roster, but a season later without them Notre Dame went 12-1 and made its first college football playoff appearance.
This past season Notre Dame made another playoff appearance despite losing Chase Claypool (66 catches, 1,037 yards, 13 TDs in 2019), tight end Cole Kmet (43 catches, 515 yards, 6 TDs in 2019), wideout Chris Finke (41 catches, 456 yards), leading rusher Tony Jones Jr. (857 yards, 6.0 YPC, 6 TD's in 2019), linebacker Asmar Bilal, defensive ends Julian Okwara and Khalid Kareem, as well as three starters from the secondary (Troy Pride Jr., Alohi Gilman, Jalen Elliott).
Notre Dame went 10-0 in the regular season and made its second CFP berth in three seasons despite those losses.
Notre Dame is at the point now as a program that it should be expected to reload, not rebuild. Yes, Notre Dame suffered key personnel losses, but no more so than it did in past seasons when the Irish not only kept things rolling, they often got better.
When you look at the players being asked to replace top starters, there are not only talented players coming back, but players that have plenty of experience (with the exception of two offensive line positions). Notre Dame also had a freshman class in 2020 that had a significant impact, and the Irish welcome arguably its best freshman class since 2013 set to fully arrive this summer.
Notre Dame is at the point now as a program that it should be expected to reload, not rebuild. The Irish do face a more challenging schedule in 2021 than it did in 2020 (with one exception), but it’s not the kind of daunting schedule the Irish used to face.
Let me ask you this, which 2021 opponent would you argue has a better roster than Notre Dame? My opinion is there isn’t one, and I’d argue there isn’t one that’s all that close.
That’s not to say Notre Dame will have its third undefeated regular season in the last four seasons, but the Irish are more than capable of once again heading into November with a chance to earn yet another CFP berth, and not doing so would be a disappointment, and would be a situation in which Notre Dame failed to live up to its talent and potential.
With what we’ve seen from the Irish coaching staff the last four seasons there’s no reason to think a step back is expected, or acceptable.
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