Notre Dame Offense Is The Key To A Rose Bowl Upset
Notre Dame has been carried by its defense for most of the 2020 season, and the last two times the Irish went undefeated. When that unit faltered against Clemson in both 2018 and 2020, the result was convincing defeats for the Irish. The same was true the last time Notre Dame faced Alabama.
I'm sure the Notre Dame defense will be up for the challenge against Alabama, but let's be honest, even a great defensive performance will result in the Crimson Tide scoring at least 30 points. Anything less than truly great will mean the Tide are between 35-42 points.
That means this game is going to come down to whether or not the Notre Dame offense can do something it has never done during Brian Kelly's 11 seasons in South Bend, score against an elite opponent.
Notre Dame has played 17 games against opponents that finished the season ranked in the top 10 during Kelly's 11 seasons, and the Irish are just 3-14 in those games. Only once has Notre Dame's offense scored more than 30 points in one of those games, and that required two overtimes against Clemson. Notre Dame averaged just 18.7 offensive points in regular in its three wins against top 10 teams, and just 28.0 points overall.
Remember, Notre Dame's offense only scored 26 points in regulation against Clemson, and 14 of its points came in the two overtimes.
In the other 16 games, Notre Dame has gone over 20 points just six times, and Notre Dame is averaging just 18.7 offensive points per contest in those games. Even in the post-2016 makeover, Notre Dame is scoring just 15.0 offensive points in regulation against top 10 squads, and just 17.8 offensive points if you include overtime.
Simply put, when the lights have been brightest the Notre Dame offense hasn't been anywhere close to good enough to get it done. The only time it came close was during the 2014-15 seasons when the Irish had Will Fuller on offense. In those two seasons the offense averaged 26.5 offensive points per game, which is certainly an uptick, but nowhere close to good enough to compete on the big stage.
I have made this argument before, and it will never be truer than in this upcoming game against Alabama. A great defense can get you to the dance, but to take home a trophy you also need a great offense.
The six national title game winners in past College Football Playoff title games have scored 42, 45, 35, 26, 44 and 42 points. The only exception to my rule was the title game after the 2017 season, when two SEC teams faced each other. In the other five games the winner has scored 41.6 points per game, and the offenses have averaged 38.8 points per game in those contests.
In the 12 semi-final games the winner has averaged 39.7 points per game, and a team has won a semi-final game while scoring fewer than 30 points just twice, and both times it was Alabama (vs. Washington in 2016, vs. Clemson in 2017).
The current Alabama team is the epitome of the modern college game, pretty good on defense, but truly elite on offense. Alabama's last loss came in the national title game following the 2018 season. The Tide were destroyed by Clemson, losing 44-16 as Trevor Lawrence shredded the Alabama defense.
Since that loss, however, Alabama has gone 24 straight games without scoring fewer than 35 points in a game, and the Crimson Tide have scored fewer than 40 points just four times, and only once this season. In its only two losses during that stretch, Alabama scored 41 points (vs. LSU) and 45 points (vs. Auburn), and its offense has gone for 36.0 points per game .... in defeat.
This isn't going to be a 12-7 game, or a 17-13 game. Heck, the odds of this being a 27-24 game are incredibly small. If Notre Dame is going to stay in and win this game, its offense will need to be outstanding. The offense will need to put points on the board, and put them on the board early and often.
Not only does this allow Notre Dame to stay in the game, but it gives the Irish defense an opportunity to get caught up to the speed of Alabama's players and the tempo of the offense, plus it gives defensive coordinator Clark Lea time to get a read on what Alabama is trying to do.
If the Irish offense would have kept up with Clemson in the first half of the ACC title game the outcome could have been very, very different. The same will be true in this game. If Notre Dame can get into the second half within striking distance of Alabama (10 points or less and with the ball), the defense will have a chance at making stops after it adjusts, and then it's up to the offense to bring it home.
Can it happen? Absolutely, from a talent standpoint Notre Dame is capable of scoring on Alabama. But that has been true plenty of times in the past 17 games, and yet the Irish continue to fall short. To show it belongs on this stage in 2020, the Irish offense will need to finally turn the corner, come to terms with modern football and maximize its talent.
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