Notre Dame National Championship Odds Improve After Win Over Michigan State

Notre Dame saw its game chances go down against some surprising teams this past week, but go up against a key one

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman leads the team onto the field before a NCAA football game against Michigan State at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026, in South Bend. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

It was another week and another win for Notre Dame, as the Fighting Irish beat Michigan State 27-10.

The win wasn't the sexiest of things, but it was rather dominating for the Irish, despite it being "only" a 17-point victory.

Despite the final score, Saturday night's game was dominated by Notre Dame. A truly great defense doesn't make domination as obvious when the offense doesn't put up 50 points, but Saturday's game was completely controlled by Notre Dame.

As a result, the computer formula that ESPN uses for its Football Power Index increased Notre Dame's chances of winning the national championship this week.

More on that later, but here's updated numbers from ESPN FPI going into Purdue week for Notre Dame.

ESPN FPI Projects Notre Dame vs Purdue Outcome

There was no change this week for Notre Dame's chances against Purdue according to ESPN FPI. As of Monday morning, Notre Dame is given the same 96.4% chance of walking into West Lafayette and getting a victory as it was last week.

Game week

Squaring off for the Shillelagh Trophy

at Purdue
📍 West Lafayette, Indiana
📆 Saturday, Sept. 26
⏰ 2 PM ET
📺 Peacock#GoIrish☘️ | @tirerack pic.twitter.com/XZ5u0du1GY

— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) September 21, 2026

Notre Dame has won 10-straight games against the Boilermakers, with its last loss against them coming way back in 2007.

ESPN FPI Projects Remainder of Notre Dame Season

For comparison, here is how FPI projects Notre Dame's chances in the remainder of its nine games this season.

at Purdue: 96.4% (same as last week)
at North Carolina: 90.8% (up 0.3%)
vs. Stanford: 99.0% (up 0.1%)
at BYU: 73.4% (down 2.1%)
vs. Navy: 97.9% (down 0.3%)
vs. Miami: 67.3% (up 2.2%)
at Boston College: 98.7% (up 0.1%)
vs. SMU: 89.3% (up 0.6%)
at Syracuse: 95.0% (down 0.2%)

For the second week in a row, the biggest change in Notre Dame's chances for a single game come against Miami, as the Irish saw another 2.2% rise in its chances.

Also worth noting is that for the second week in a row, its chances of winning at BYU went down. Now. it's still over 70% but the model is liking BYU as a threat to make the CFP more and more each week.

ESPN FPI's Updated TItle Odds for Notre Dame

FPI also gives Notre Dame the following chances for the 2026 season:

Projected record: 11.0-1.0 (up from 10.9-1.1 last week)
Make the College Football Playoff: 80.9% (up from 80.9%)
Make National Championship Game: 23.3% (up from 22.1%)
Win National Championship: 12.6% (up from 11.8%)

Notre Dame's championship chances still trail Texas and Ohio State, but after its beatdown at Arkansas, Georgia has now also passed the Irish in this department, as the Bulldogs are given a 13.8% chance currently.

Nick Shepkowski's Thoughts

I know it hasn't looked the way a lot of Notre Dame fans have wanted it to through three games, but Notre Dame is leaving no doubt.

It's leaning on its defense to be great (which it is), and running an offense that keeps that defense largely fresh.

There are no safe harbors on the Isle of Moore 🛘#GoIrish☘️ | @LeonardKevMoore pic.twitter.com/OWfyPkUXLh

— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) September 21, 2026

I'm most excited to see how Notre Dame's defense plays against what will be the best offense it has seen to date this week at Purdue, and if that changes how the offense operates a bit, as well.