The Shake Down: Vegas Win Totals For Notre Dame In 2020
One of the more low-key, but still great, events in college football happens in the Spring, when the wise guys in Las Vegas start to leak out the projected win totals and betting lines for the upcoming college football season.
Back in April, the Action Network released a side-by-side comparison of their projected win totals next to what DraftKings had for an over/under betting line.
The Action Network projected Notre Dame’s win total at 8.04 wins, meaning they think the Irish will win 8 games, and had a slim chance at winning a ninth.
DraftKings set Notre Dame’s over/under win total at 10. For those not familiar with how over/under bets work, that means you place a bet on whether you think the Irish will fall below or above that number of wins on their 12-game regular season schedule.
The numbers are obviously not pulled out of a hat. Who the Irish play, as well as where and when all play a factor in the projection. Additionally, sports books like DraftKings toss out a number that they think will get the most action. In this case, they feel that the 10-game mark is going to do that trick – and I think they nailed it.
Looking at Notre Dame’s 2020 schedule, you’ll see seven games where the Irish are the more talented team and should be favored regardless of where or when those matchups take place. Those games are against Navy, Arkansas, Western Michigan, Wake Forest, Pitt, Duke and Georgia Tech.
I assume The Action Network’s eighth projected win is at home against a Stanford program that has been on the decline as of late.
That leaves four games to decide which way you want to bet.
WISCONSIN
At first glance and in most years, a matchup with Wisconsin at Lambeau Field is a tall order.
In 2020, however, this may not be the case – especially given the talent the Badgers lost on the offensive side of the ball. When you factor in what Notre Dame lost and returns – along with what should be a sizeable contingent of Irish fans in the stands – this game has the feel of a coin flip.
CLEMSON
All eyes are on the Clemson game on the first Saturday of November. The fan in you is obviously screaming “Go Irish”, but the part of your mind that’s on your money knows to expect the Irish to lose this one – even at home – to what has arguably been the best program in college football over the last five years.
LOUISVILLE
Two weeks later, Notre Dame hosts a Louisville team on the rise. The Irish struggled in the opener against the Cardinals before finally sealing a hard-fought win. 2020 may not be as easy, but the Irish should still be favored based on overall talent and the home-field advantage. Your money should be on Notre Dame in that one.
USC
Finally, Notre Dame ends the regular season against a USC team that should have one of the more dynamic, high-powered offenses in the country this fall. The Trojans are going to have athletes on both sides of the ball that can hang with anyone Notre Dame puts on the field. Between that and the home-field advantage for USC, Notre Dame’s only clear advantage appears to be with its coaching staff.
That alone, however, isn’t enough to move this game away from being a “pick’em” for me.
In the end, your over/under bet for the 2020 season comes down to the Wisconsin and USC games. If you feel like the Irish truly are the better team in both matchups, you bet the over. Any reservations about either game should be enough for you to bet the under.
In both cases, you’ve got some wiggle room and insurance with the win total set at 10, always giving you the chance for a “push” — allowing you to get your money back and walk away whole.
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