Notre Dame Passes Texas and Ohio State in ESPN Computer Rankings

Notre Dame made quick work of Purdue last week, beating the Boilermakers 49-10 in a game that probably wasn't as close as the final score indicated.

Sure, it was "only Purdue" but dominance is dominance, and Notre Dame has done that for the vast majority of its four games to date.

As a result, Notre Dame is now viewed as the second best team in the nation according to ESPN's Football Power Index, and again saw its chances of winning the national championship increase this week.

After checking in at No. 4 in the rankings last week, Notre Dame passed both Texas and Ohio State to move to No. 2, as it trails only Georgia currently.

ESPN FPI Projects Notre Dame vs North Carolina Outcome

Notre Dame heads to North Carolina this week, a program the Fighting Irish have historically dominated.

The Tar Heels are 2-1 after a bye week, and suffering a loss at Clemson two weeks ago.

ESPN FPI gives Notre Dame a 91.3% chance of victory this weekend, a 0.5% increase from a week ago.

Game week

at North Carolina
📍 Chapel Hill, North Carolina
📆 Saturday, Oct. 3
⏰ 12 PM ET
📺 ESPN#GoIrish☘️ | @tirerack pic.twitter.com/qIIlLo9LDj
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) September 28, 2026

Notre Dame has not lost to North Carolina since 2008.

ESPN FPI Projects Remainder of Notre Dame Season

For comparison, here is how FPI projects Notre Dame's chances in the remainder of its nine games this season.

at North Carolina: 91.3% (up 0.5%)
vs. Stanford: 99.0% (same)
at BYU: 76.4% (up 3.0%)
vs. Navy: 98.5% (up 0.6%)
vs. Miami: 65.1% (down 2.2%)
at Boston College: 98.7% (same)
vs. SMU: 93.3% (up 4.0%)
at Syracuse: 95.5% (up 0.5%)

My guess is that Miami's win over Wake Forest looks more impressive to the formula a week later, after Wake Forest earned an upset victory at Louisville. That would be my guess as the reason to Miami's chances of Notre Dame going up.

That said, Notre Dame should have gotten a bit of a boost from Wisconsin beating Penn State, as well.

ESPN FPI's Updated TItle Odds for Notre Dame

FPI also gives Notre Dame the following chances for the 2026 season:

Projected record: 11.1-0.9 (up from 11.0-1.0 last week)
Make the College Football Playoff: 84,8% (up from 80.9%)
Make National Championship Game: 25.7% (up from 23.3%)
Win National Championship: 14.3% (up from 12.6%)

Nick Shepkowski's Thoughts

It's hard to measure when the teams Notre Dame plays rather mediocre teams, but its good news when the computer models like what is being done, and so far that's the case.

Even when the scoreboard has been close at times during the year, Notre Dame has felt in control of those games, and the math that goes into this says just as much.

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