Can Ohio State Beat USC With Luke Fahey Replacing Julian Sayin? FPI Gives Answer

Ohio State plays USC for the first time in nearly a decade Saturday night.

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day talks to Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin (10) during the NCAA football game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium Stadium in Bloomington, Ind. on Oct. 17, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

It took until Friday night, but the Ohio State Buckeyes finally have their starting quarterback solidified ahead of Saturday night's Week 9 road game vs. the USC Trojans.

After a week of uncertainty between Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair as to who the starting quarterback could be, Friday night finally gave Buckeye Nation the answer they had waited two weeks for: Fahey earned the nod.

The colossal update was made official just after 9 p.m. ET by On3's Pete Nakos, which also came out around the time of the updated availability report from the Big Ten Conference. Neither Fahey nor St. Clair was listed, and Sayin was ruled out. CBS Sports' Matt Zenitz weighed in on the situation, too.

Ohio State is expected to start true freshman Luke Fahey at quarterback tomorrow against USC, sources tell @CBSSports.

Was the clear favorite in the competition with sophomore Tavien St. Clair to be Ohio State’s new starter with Julian Sayin now injured but head coach Ryan Day… pic.twitter.com/n1irFnE9Wc

— Matt Zenitz (@mzenitz) October 31, 2026

"Was the clear favorite in the competition with sophomore Tavien St. Clair to be Ohio State’s new starter with Julian Sayin now injured but head coach Ryan Day has continued to decline to name a starter," Zenitz wrote. "However, it is expected to be Fahey."

Day has not publicly commented on the reports, and likely won't make any remarks at all until after the game when Fahey's performance will continue to be analyzed through the week and then some before the Oregon Ducks arrive in Columbus next Saturday.

So, the ultimate question remains: what are the Buckeyes' chances to win on the road against the Trojans, something they haven't done since 1946?

Ohio State's Probability To Beat USC

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day watches during the NCAA football game against the Maryland Terrapins at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Oct. 10, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

With Fahey now active, ESPN Analytics gives Ohio State has an 82.7 percent chance to improve to 7-0, compared with 17.3 percent for the host Trojans, who sit at 3-2.

Those percentages could change as Ohio State's final month of the season begins next week. Its final four games include the Ducks, the No. 20 Northwestern Wildcats (both at home on Nov. 7 and Nov. 14, respectively), and a road test against a bowl-contending Nebraska Cornhuskers team in Lincoln, Neb. Saturday, Nov. 21.

As is Ohio State tradition, it will play the Michigan Wolverines on Thanksgiving weekend. Only this time, it'll be in Columbus, and Senior Day festivities will have already taken place. Ohio State won last year's matchup in Ann Arbor, 27-9. The victory clinched a berth in the Big Ten title game against the Indiana Hoosiers, marking the start of consecutive losses to end last season.

In a nutshell, Ohio State is in a great position to keep the season alive. Now, execution is the next phase.