BEST BETS: What to Wager in Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Football Opener

Plenty of money will be wagered across Week 1 of college football. Here is a look at one specific betting angle for Ohio State vs. Notre Dame, with details to show why it might be your best bet on Saturday.

Author:
Staff Writer
Sep 1, 2022 12:33 PM EDT

In this story:

Ohio State Buckeyes

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Ohio State is a sizeable favorite Saturday night against Notre Dame, laying three possessions at the SI Sportsbook in a spread that has grown by more than three full points. But instead of that spread, let's focus on the total combined points in the anticipated top-five clash, and why the "over" could be a profitable choice...

What's The Betting Line For Ohio State vs. Notre Dame?

The spread favors Ohio State (-17), while the total points line is set at 59.

QUICK HITTERS

* Ohio State led the nation last year with 45.7 points per game, and might be even better this time around.

* The Buckeyes had four home games last season against nationally-ranked teams. Those scores were 35-28, 33-24, 59-31 and 56-7. That’s an average of 68 (combined) points per game and 44 for OSU.

* In the one game where quarterback Tyler Buchner saw extended time last year for Notre Dame, the Irish edged Virginia Tech by a 32-29 margin. He replaced Jack Coan with his team down 10-0 in the second quarter, finishing with 180 total yards and two touchdowns (in roughly half the game) before giving way back to Coan later on.

* Notre Dame played four nationally-ranked opponents last fall. The winning team in those games averaged 36.2 points.

PACE OF PLAY

Both teams ranked top-50 nationally a year ago in offensive plays per game, with Notre Dame at 72.1 and Ohio State (71.7) just behind. For context, Western Michigan and Tennessee were T-20th at roughly 76 snaps per contest. Not that much of a difference over four quarters.

HIGH-SCORING OPENERS

Last season, both teams soared past the betting totals in their respective season openers. Ohio State beat Minnesota 45-31 to comfortably eclipse the O/U of 61. Notre Dame outlasted Florida State (41-38) to crush the 53.5 number.

RECENT MEETINGS

This has very little to do with the actual game on Saturday, as previous matchups in this (limited) series featured totally different players, schemes, circumstances, etc. But, for what it’s worth, the last two were higher scoring…

Ohio State won the 2016 Fiesta Bowl 44-28, a game that was 35-21 midway through third quarter. OSU won the 2006 game by a 34-20 tally, racking up 617 total yards of offense but also losing two fumbles. They probably should have scored even more.

VEGAS MOVEMENT

While the spread has jumped a few points, the total has remained pretty much intact with an opening at 58 and current number of 59. That miniscule jump is likely due to casual bettors placing small entertainment wagers on the over (as per usual) throughout the week. I’d recommend tracking movement as the week progresses, to make sure the public isn’t totally pounding the over.

TOMMY REES IS LEGIT

Over backers might be concerned about Notre Dame’s offense holding up its end of the bargain, notably a young quarterback starting on the road (at night) in the Horseshoe. But Tommy Rees just coached Jack Coan to the best season of his career and also developed Ian Book, the winningest QB in program history. Buchner (7.3 yards per carry) runs better than both of those guys by the way.

WORRIED ABOUT NOTRE DAME LOSSES/INJURIES?

Yes, in addition to Coan, the Irish lost 1,000-yard back Kyren Williams and leading receiver Kevin Austin Jr. to the NFL. Then, injuries to receiver Avery Davis (torn ACL) and star offensive lineman Jarrett Patterson (foot sprain) happened as of late. But let's examine a bit further:

* RB's Chris Tyree and Logan Diggs both had over 50 carries and averaged at least four yards per attempt last year ... with Diggs scoring three times. The backfield will be capable.

* Davis finished with 27 catches for 386 yards and four touchdowns last year. Returning wideouts Braden Lenzy (32-350-3) and Lorenzo Styles (24-344-1) were right there in terms of similar production.

* Irish tight end Michael Mayer is arguably the best at his position in the entire country. He is coming off a season in which he made an impressive 71 catches for 840 yards and seven TD's last season.