Stacking Up Ohio State's Defense Against Minnesota's Offense
Without a shadow of a doubt, the Buckeyes defense needs to be better in 2021. Ohio State had far too many instances of poor execution in the secondary last year and that has to be the biggest focal point going into this season. It felt like the Scarlet and Gray often won last year in spite of some deficiencies on the other side of the ball.
But there are definitely reasons to be encouraged, with a rock solid defensive line and a back seven that the coaching staff feels really good about at the outset.
Here's a look at how the Buckeyes defensive stats from last year stack up against Minnesota's 2020 offensive numbers. While this year's teams (and the circumstances of the season in general) are so much different, it's at least a starting point that will hopefully point to some trends for what these teams might be prioritizing coming into the season.
Ohio State Scoring Defense vs. Minnesota Scoring Offense
Advantage: Ohio State
Minnesota returns the vast majority of its starters from last year's team, but they had a tough time moving the ball in big chunks. The Golden Gophers only had 37 plays in games that went for 20+ yards (by contrast, OSU had 60 such plays). Minnesota was moderately efficient in the red zone, but 27.3 points per game isn't enough to win consistently against the best teams in the country.
Meanwhile, Ohio State allowed 25 percent of their points for the entire season against Alabama in the national title game. If you take that game, against one of the best college football offenses of all time, out of the equation, OSU allowed an average of 22 points per game against the other seven teams.
While Minnesota may prove an ability to move the ball a bit on the Buckeyes, I think they're going to have to do that almost entirely on the ground. It sounds like Minnesota's best wide receiver Chris Autman-Bell may or may not be available on Thursday. If he does play, he likely won't be at full strength. Without him, that is a very unproven position group and I think Thursday is going to be a really tough indoctrination for them.
Ohio State Pass Defense vs. Minnesota Pass Offense
Advantage: Ohio State
Minnesota returns quarterback Tanner Morgan for a third season and he's been solid through his first two years (posting a record of 18-8 as a starter). But while he has a great running back behind him and a veteran, sizeable offensive line, Minnesota's receiving corps remains a bit of a mystery this year.
Last year, teams tended to line up with eight in the box against the Gophers and dare them to try and win through the air. It was an effective strategy for the most part and Morgan's numbers were much more pedestrian last year. After a 30-touchdown, 7-interception season through 13 games in 2019, Morgan fired off just 7 touchdowns and 7 picks last fall.
On the flip side, Ohio State gave up 400-yard passing performances on three separate occasions last year. The Buckeyes missteps last year are well-documented.
Based off of last year's statistics and having a returning starting quarterback, I'm tempted to give Minnesota an edge here. But in my heart, I don't believe the Buckeye secondary is going to come out as flat on Thursday night as they finished last season. The Gophers need to prove they can move the ball with a receiving corps that lacks star power.
Ohio State Rush Defense vs. Minnesota Rush Offense
Advantage: Ohio State
Minnesota running back Mohamed Ibrahim was one of the most productive running backs in the country last year. In fact, he has racked up a school-record eight consecutive games of at least 100 rushing yards. He’s averaging 152.0 yards per game and has scored 16 touchdowns during that span. Ibrahim is a smaller back at 5-feet, 10-inches and 210 pounds. But he plays behind one of the biggest offensive lines in the conference.
However, the Buckeye run defense last year was one of the absolute best in the nation. The Buckeyes allowed a team to run for 100 yards or fewer in four of their eight games, and 160 yards or fewer in all but one contest. Would you have believed at the end of the season that Nebraska's 210 rushing yards in the opener was the worst performance by the run stopping unit all season?
Even with a very good offensive line, I expect the Buckeyes to dominate the line of scrimmage on Thursday. Larry Johnson is going to play perhaps as many as 12 or 13 players against the Golden Gophers and I think OSU's depth eventually wears down Minnesota's starters. There will be some pressure on the new linebacking corps to finish tackles, but I think the Buckeyes can get that done.
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