Ohio State locked up spot in CFP: here's what's next for the Buckeyes

The Buckeyes will close out their still undefeated regular season with a visit to Ann Arbor.

Ohio State Buckeyes linebacker Sonny Styles (0) celebrates a sack by linebacker Sonny Styles (0) during the NCAA football game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Nov. 22, 2025. Ohio State won 42-9. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ohio State is setting its sights on the trickiest challenge of the regular season, a visit to Ann Arbor against a Michigan Wolverines team that has won “The Game” in each of the last four seasons.

But, even with a berth in the Big Ten Championship Game on the line, the Buckeyes (11-0, 8-0) are all but guaranteed the chance to compete for the school’s first back-to-back National titles.

According to ESPN’s updated College Football Playoff probabilities, after 1 Ohio State’s 42-9 dismantling of Rutgers last weekend, the Buckeyes have a zero percent chance of being left out of the 12-team field, regardless of what happens at 18 Michigan (9-2, 7-1) or Indianapolis’ Lucas Oil Field.

Updated CFP probabilities from ESPN:

Ohio State 100.0%
Indiana 99.6%
Texas A&M 99.4%
Georgia 98.6%
Oregon 97.0%
Texas Tech 89.5%
Ole Miss 82.0%
Oklahoma 78.4%
Notre Dame 72.5%
Alabama 60.9%
James Madison 57.0%
North Texas 54.4%
BYU 48.6%
Miami 31.4%
Virginia 29.0%

— Mike Rodak (@mikerodak) November 23, 2025

And, after what we saw last year, we know that all these Buckeyes need is a chance. Ohio State got into the tournament ranked sixth, seeded eight, before squashing Tennessee 42-17 in the first round and destroying Oregon 41-21 in the quarterfinals. The semifinals saw the Buckeyes roll over Texas 28-14, before annihilating Notre Dame in the CFP Final by a score of 34-23.

After Ohio State, 2 Indiana has the best odds of playing the CFP bracket, with a 99.6 percent chance -- according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor -- of getting in regardless of its remaining calendar. The Hoosiers (11-0, 8,0) host Purdue (2-9, 0-8), and a win would guarantee a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game.

In the SEC, 3 Texas A&M (11-0, 7-0) has the best odds of earning a berth in the CFP, with a 99.4 percent chance of being extended an invitation to the tournament, as things stand today, followed by 4 Georgia’s (10-1, 7-1) 98.6 percent.

Another Big Ten school rounds out the Top-5, with 7 Oregon (10-1, 7-1) receiving odds of 97.0 percent of earning a spot in the 12-team field, even if they are currently on the outside looking in for a spot in the Conference Championship Game.

ESPN states it uses 200,000 simulations of the rest of the season to determine the odds of each school of getting in the College Football Playoff.

Could a potential lock on an invitation to the CFP and the chance to defend the National Championship achieved last January influence the Buckeyes towards resting up some injured players and take it easy against Michigan?

Don’t hold your breath on that. When it comes to rivalries, nothing matches the Ohio State-Michingan affair, and the Buckeyes are riding a four-loss streak to the Wolverines. Besides, the ticket to Indianapolis hasn’t been punched yet, and a Big Ten Championship is one of head coach Ryan Day’s priorities for this season.

In other words, don’t expect Ohio State to consider Saturday’s trip to Ann Arbor as just another game in the way of bigger things to come. Regardless of the outcome, the Buckeyes want this win as much as anything else still up for grabs.