A two-loss Big 12 champ in the playoff? Lincoln Riley thinks 'anything can happen, especially this year'
Barring chaos in the final two weeks of the regular season, it seems certain that Oklahoma’s chances of returning to the College Football Playoff are nonexistent.
And yet …
Count ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit among those who think this Sooner team would be a quality pick for this year’s playoff field.
“This is a different Oklahoma team at this point in the season,” Herbstreit said late in Saturday’s broadcast of OU’s 41-13 victory over Oklahoma State. “You don’t want to play the Sooners right now.”
This season’s initial College Football Playoff rankings will be revealed Tuesday night on ESPN (6:45 p.m.).
The Sooners climbed four spots in this week’s AP Top 25, but only sit at No. 14. They’re also 14th in the coaches poll. With two losses, OU might cling to an infinitesimally small hope of 1) winning big Saturday at West Virginia, 2) blowing out Baylor on Dec. 5, 3) cruising through their Big 12 championship game opponent on Dec. 19, and 4) hoping 6-8 teams ranked ahead of them all lose in the next 3-4 weeks.
No. 14 OU (6-2), No. 15 Iowa State (6-2), No. 20 Texas) 5-2) and No. 21 Oklahoma State (5-2) all have a shot at making the Big 12 title game. But would a two-loss Big 12 champion have a shot at making the CFP?
“Oh, anything can happen. Especially this year,” coach Lincoln Riley said Monday on the Big 12 coaches teleconference. “I mean, there’s no telling. It’s just gonna be hard to predict this year. You’re gonna have a lot of people that played a lot less games and, you know, that’s just — it’s gonna be hard for the committee.
“I don’t know how you decide between a team that didn’t even have the opportunity to lose some of the games and then teams that played more of a full schedule. So, you know, it’ll be a tough decision.”
Herbstreit said during Saturday’s game that this Oklahoma team — even at 9-2 — might fare better in the final four than some of the Sooners’ previous entries.
“I think this is a more complete team than the teams that have won the Big 12 and gone to the playoff,” Herbstreit said. “More complete team because of the way they’re playing defense this year with (defensive coordinator) Alex Grinch, and late in the year — I think those teams that have gone in the past and many times gotten exposed in the playoff, they were a great offense, but they didn’t have a defense.
“I think this team has a better defensive front, they’ve got some experience in the secondary, and now that a young quarterback (Spencer Rattler) has grown up, he has so many weapons — I don’t know, this feels like a complete team.”
It may be too late to have that discussion. Early losses to Kansas State and Iowa State put the Sooners in catch-up mode out of the gate, and there’s just too much ground to make up from an 0-2 conference start.
Also, the Big 12’s non-conference results this year were abysmal: Iowa State lost 31-14 to Louisiana, Kansas State lost 35-31 to Arkansas State, Kansas lost 38-23 to Coastal Carolina, and Texas Tech won by two points but needed a stop at the end to avoid losing to Houston Baptist. Also, Oklahoma State needed a couple of late breaks to win 16-7 and to avoid losing to Tulsa.
And yet …
“I think there’s some good teams in this league,” Riley said. “I think you’ve always got a shot if you can be playing really well at the end. If you can have a shot at winning the Big 12, I think you always have a shot. I think we’ve proven that.
“But this year is so different. We’ve had several teams — I know for a fact — we’ve had several teams in our league this year that have had played games when other teams in other leagues — and I’m not saying they shouldn’t have or should have; I’m not casting stones here — but when other teams in other leagues canceled. And so how do you make the decision there if it comes down to it? It’ll be a tough job for the committee. But I do think anything’s possible this year.”
Because the Pac-12 chose to start late, Oregon and USC are just 3-0. But because of aggressive scheduling, BYU is 9-0, and Notre Dame, Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina are 8-0. The Big Ten’s best contenders are 4-0 Ohio State and 5-0 Northwestern. Assuming Alabama continues to rule the SEC and finishes undefeated, that league could put forth a one-loss playoff contender like Texas A&M or a two-loss possibility in Georgia. No. 4 Clemson has a loss to No. 2 Notre Dame, but that was without Heisman frontrunner Trevor Lawrence.
And like Herbstreit suggested, Oklahoma might be playing as well as anyone — at the moment.
“It’s a tough deal,” Riley said. “I would imagine … to me the only way that you can do it is you have to put more stock in the eye test. What’s the one common theme that you have with all the teams is you can watch them play? You can watch how they are performing. Are they skating by or are they dominating? That’s the only answer I have.
“I don’t know how else you can compare a team that’s getting to that point when they are 5-0 or 6-0 versus a team that’s 10-1 or 9-2 or whatever you want to call it when the other team has really not have five or six more opportunities to lose games.
“Especially this year because … it’s just like Clemson against Notre Dame. Notre Dame is plenty good, but all of a sudden you don’t have two or three of your main horses. The right one at the right time. It can happen. We’ve lived it. And a lot of other people have too. Other than putting more stock in the eye test – which I think if they are going to do it, that’s what they have to do – then I don’t know how you compare it. It’s a very tough challenge for everyone on that committee this year.”
Riley was asked if the metric of winning a conference championship might become more favored this season. The Pac-12 champ will have played no more than seven games (possibly less), while the Big Ten winner will have nine data points and champs from the Big 12, ACC and SEC could have as many as 11 or 12.
“I think that’s fair,” Riley said. “I totally think that’s fair. Everybody is not only playing same amount of games, but also people also have the same – within that league – threshold for postponing or canceling.
“Like I said, I know for a fact talking to some of my peers is that some of what’s causing other leagues to cancel, in our league we would have played and have played. I agree. I think conference championships and the eye tests – I mean they always go a long ways – but they are have to probably be a bigger part of it this year, in my opinion.”
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