Oklahoma's Recruiting Ranking: Is it Too Low? Or Is it Just Too Soon?

Sooner Nation has begun to squirm a bit over their team’s 2021 recruiting class.

Complaints about Oklahoma’s team ranking are streaming in from all corners of the World Wide Web.

As of Friday, the Sooners are 40th in the nation, according to the 247 Sports Composite Rankings.

They’re three spots behind SMU, two spots ahead of Toledo and three spots ahead of Northern Illinois.

Pittsburgh, Boston College, Duke, Northwestern, Cal, Maryland and Kansas currently have classes that rank higher than Oklahoma’s.

Kansas.

Speaking of the Big 12 Conference, Oklahoma ranks seventh — ahead of Kansas State (48th), TCU (60th) and Oklahoma State (69th).

So yeah, OU recruitniks are a bit uneasy at the moment.

But it’s too early to panic. Nobody needs to lose their job. Lincoln Riley and his staff — which has two brand new recruiters, remember — will more than likely figure things out.

“Oklahoma’s traditionally been a very strong finisher,” said Sports Illustrated director of football recruiting John Garcia.

As of Friday, the Sooners’ class of 2021 has just five verbal commitments: wide receiver Cody Jackson, defensive end Ethan Downs, offensive lineman Cullen Montgomery, safety Jordan Makes and linebacker Danny Stutsman.

None of the 39 teams ranked above Oklahoma has fewer commits. Put another way, OU has the highest ranked 2021 class in the nation among schools who have five commits or less.

OK, that’s a poor attempt at humor.

But clearly, this is purely a volume problem. Alabama, for instance, has a team composite ranking of 57th, and the Crimson Tide has only three commits. When Riley gets a few more pledges, OU’s team ranking will rise — probably dramatically.

Now, a quick history lesson: in the past 10 years, only twice have the Sooners had more than five verbal commitments on May 8 the year before. In the 2019 class, OU had nine commitments on this date. And in the 2017 class, OU had 10 players committed.

Those classes finished ranked No. 6 and No. 8, respectively.

The flip side is this: those also were two of the only four OU classes to finish ranked in inside the top 10 over the past decade. The 2012 class ended up at No. 10, and the 2018 class ranked No. 9.

So, from Oklahoma’s perspective, at least, there indeed does seem to be a correlation between early commitments and final class ranking.

Garcia said there are enough variables at play here that should leave OU fans encouraged.

One, the COVID-19 pandemic is wreaking havoc with both programs and recruits.

Two, Oklahoma is trying to reel in a 5-star quarterback who then would try to recruit a handful of other elite prospects. If Caleb Williams commits to Riley and the Sooners, OU’s team ranking would skyrocket, and probably would continue to rise into the fall.

“When you have an elite quarterback verbally committed, and then plans change — as it did with Brock Vandagriff — that is gonna naturally create a pause with those out-of-state prospects that are looking at a school like OU,” Garcia said. “You know, OU makes its proverbial money in Texas and California and Florida and the South, and a lot of that has to do with rallying around momentum, which typically needs a quarterback. So I think that decommitment certainly slowed any early momentum that OU was looking to establish.

“But we all know Oklahoma’s gonna be just fine. They’re absolutely the leader in the clubhouse for Caleb Williams. Although it’s not over at this point, certainly, perceptually, Oklahoma should feel comfortable with where they’re at right there. It was his last visit before COVID hit. He probably goes deeper with Lincoln Riley than he does with any other head coach. I think a couple other assistants elsewhere may have a contending relationship. But when it comes to the head coach, I don’t think anybody’s recruiting him more consistently than OU.

“And look, that’s the most impressive recent quarterback track record in the country. And I don’t think that’s really debatable at this point. That’s something that a kid like Caleb Williams wants to jump in on. And he’s been very public about recruiting other guys. So the surface level says he’s recruiting other guys for whichever school he goes to. But just like he did two weeks ago, he knew he wasn’t really looking at five. And right now, is he truly looking at three? That’s something that’s certainly up for debate. But, he promised more fireworks soon. And I think the sooner the better, if you’re an Oklahoma fan.”

If Williams does commit to OU, he’ll push hard for others to join his cause. At the top of his list are players like 4-star wideout Mario Williams from Florida and 4-star defensive end Kelvin Gilliam out of Virginia.

“Caleb has talked about wanting to focus on defense,” said Garcia, who works with Williams every week on his exclusive recruiting journal for Sports Illustrated. “He even said, ‘Me talking to a receiver, that’s gonna be easy. That’s very tangible. Half of these kids have already caught passes from me.’ Mario Williams has, all these receivers have, at camps and such. It’s these defensive guys that he’s spending more time on.”

Garcia also mentioned the “pipeline areas” from which Oklahoma typically draws strong prospects: Texas, Southern California and South Florida.

“Broward County in particular,” Garcia said. “There’s a couple guys there that I think are still very much high on OU. So I think … the stability there should even reassure the fans, and the likelihood of adding an elite, top-tier quarterback should be the most relaxing thing in this entire panic conversation.”

Something else that could equate to an eventual boost to OU’s team ranking: The Sooners current crop consists of two 4-stars and three 3-stars. Former All-American and Butkus Award winner Teddy Lehman, who has a podcast and radio show in Norman, recently predicted that Stutsman’s 3-star ranking will climb to 4 stars if he signs with the Sooners. And it’s widely expected that in-state safety Jordan Mukes’ 3-star ranking — partly a product of one varsity season and little camp exposure — will experience a similar jump.

The bottom line is that recruiting in 2020 is just too much of an outlier to make premature judgments. Once the pandemic subsides and recruiting opens back up, things should look a little more normal — for Oklahoma and Alabama, and for Kansas and Toledo.

“Recruiting in general, in terms of rankings,” Garcia said, “I would never be worried when it comes to OU.”

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