Oklahoma controls its own destiny in the Big 12 race... but what about the CFP?
When Baylor kicker John Mayers sent a 30-yard field goal through the uprights at McLane Stadium on Saturday night, Sooner Nation celebrated a small victory of its own.
With the Bears' 32-31 comeback win over Kansas State, Oklahoma officially controls its own destiny in the Big 12 title hunt. The calculus for the Sooners is simple: beat Baylor at home and West Virginia on the road, and they'll punch their ticket to AT&T Stadium on Dec. 19.
But let's have a little fun and take this a step further. Oklahoma sits at No. 11 in the CFP rankings, and will more than likely move into the top 10 when Tuesday's new poll is revealed. What would need to happen for Oklahoma to become the first two-loss team to make the College Football Playoff?
Obviously, it's 2020, and we all know far better at this point than to take anything for granted. However, we're not going to examine scenarios that cross the line into absurdity. All of these hypothetical situations fall under the category of "unlikely, but most certainly plausible." Additionally, all of these scenarios will operate under the assumption that Oklahoma wins out and claims a Big 12 championship.
Before we get to the fun stuff, let's examine a couple of important factors that provide more than a shred of optimism that there is a path to the playoff for the Sooners. First and foremost, a conference championship is within their grasp. That's a very important feather in the cap for any team in search of a CFP berth (recall 2014, when Big Ten champion Ohio State leapfrogged Baylor and TCU on selection day).
Secondly, ESPN's FPI metric loves Oklahoma, ranking them as the fifth-best team in college football as of right now. The four teams ahead of the Sooners are Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Wisconsin. That's not bad company, especially given that the Badgers' one loss is to a Northwestern team that had the country's No. 1 strength of record before falling to Michigan State yesterday,
Third, CFP committee chair Gary Barta gave some indication that those with a say in the selection process have decidedly positive opinions of the Sooners. Here's what Barta had to say about Oklahoma last Tuesday after the rankings were unveiled.
The committee really started to talk about the last five games that Oklahoma has played. During that time they beat No. 17 Texas, and then last weekend they beat Oklahoma State. The early losses they had were, I think, by a total of 10 points. And the other thing the committee noted is that Spencer Rattler is playing at a level now that I think a lot of people thought he might play at earlier in the season... I know also the committee does pay attention to who's available in games, and I think their key running back, Rhamondre Stevenson, and one of their D-ends, Ronnie Perkins, was not available earlier in the year.
If there's a year for the committee to throw records out the window and lean heavily on the eye test, it's this abbreviated and wacky 2020 campaign. Should that happen, it would seem that Oklahoma's in pretty good shape. It's clear that the committee thinks much higher of the Sooners than they do of No. 14 BYU, which is 9-0 and virtually the only team ranked below Oklahoma with a legitimate CFP shot.
Now let's get to the good part. For reference, here's the CFP rankings as they stand today. Keep in mind that No. 8 Northwestern will drop in Tuesday's updated poll.
Scenario 1: Oklahoma ends up the No. 4 seed alongside unbeaten Alabama, unbeaten Notre Dame, and unbeaten Ohio State.
Here's how it happens: Alabama and Ohio State take care of business, winning out and capping their regular seasons with conference titles. Notre Dame validates its victory over Clemson in the ACC title game. Alabama's SEC title would knock No. 6 Florida and No. 9 Georgia from contention, clearing the way for the Sooners to vault past both teams. No. 25 Tulsa forges past No. 7 Cincinnati in their final regular-season game, eliminating the currently-unbeaten Bearcats from serious CFP discussions.
Should things fall in that manner, Oklahoma would be in fantastic shape. The only flaw in the ointment could be No. 5 Texas A&M, which wouldn't be a conference champion but does own a marquee win over Florida. However, Alabama stomped the Aggies 52-24 back on Oct. 3. That will decidedly work in Oklahoma's favor in this scenario, and there's no guarantee that A&M gets past Auburn next week anyway. Should Miami win out, they could have a case, but the Hurricanes fell 42-17 to Clemson in their one real prove-it game. As a one-loss ACC team without a conference title, Manny Diaz's crew probably wouldn't get the nod.
Scenario 2: Oklahoma ends up the No. 4 seed alongside unbeaten Alabama, one-loss Clemson and one-loss Texas A&M.
Here's how it happens: Alabama beats Florida in the SEC championship game, Clemson convincingly exacts revenge on Notre Dame for the ACC title, and chaos ensues in the Big Ten. As in Scenario 1, Tulsa knocks off Cincinnati. Now, suppose Wisconsin loses to either No. 12 Indiana or No. 24 Iowa (which almost seems probable at this point). Meanwhile, Northwestern falls to Minnesota or Illinois, but still wins the tiebreaker over Wisconsin and Iowa for the Big Ten West crown. Then the Wildcats knock off Ohio State in the Big Ten championship.
Would a 6-1 Buckeyes team, owner of one win over a team with a record north of .500, get into the playoff over a hypothetical 9-2 Oklahoma? Many would find it hard to believe. 10-1 Notre Dame would certainly have a case as well, but the edge would presumably go to the Sooners. Their conference title and eight-game winning streak would likely tip the scales, especially if Trevor Lawrence rips the Irish to shreds in the rematch.
Scenario 3: Oklahoma ends up the No. 3 seed alongside unbeaten Alabama, unbeaten Notre Dame and unbeaten Cincinnati.
Here's how it happens: In a mashup of Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, we see a two-loss team in the playoff and a Group of 5 team in the playoff for the first time. Alabama wins the SEC, eliminating Florida and Georgia from the CFP race. Notre Dame beats Clemson a second time for the ACC crown. Meanwhile, Ohio State loses in the Big Ten title game, and Auburn upsets Texas A&M.
Should BYU remain undefeated, they could certainly enter the conversation at that point, but consider that Oklahoma 1) is already ranked higher than the Cougars, and 2) has up to three more games on their schedule, while BYU has just one. Zach Wilson and company can't do any better than 10-0, and they don't have the luxury of a conference championship game to bolster their resume. It seems more plausible that the debate comes down to Cincinnati and BYU for the fourth seed, a battle that the Bearcats would have the inside track to win.
Scenario 4: Oklahoma ends up the No. 4 seed alongside unbeaten Notre Dame, one-loss Florida and one-loss Alabama.
Here's how it happens: To be clear, any scenario in which Florida wins the SEC probably spells doom for Oklahoma. At that point, based on reputation and the eye test, Alabama more than likely earns a mulligan and locks down a playoff seed despite no conference title, and the SEC puts two teams in the field. But what about a scenario in which the Gators top the Tide, Notre Dame beats Clemson, Texas A&M loses to Auburn, Cincinnati falls to Tulsa, and Jim Harbaugh saves his job with a colossal upset win over Ohio State?
At that point, the committee would compare Oklahoma to BYU, one-loss Cincinnati, a Buckeyes team with no more than six wins, two-loss Clemson with no conference title, and maybe even one-loss Indiana. In that hypothetical conversation, the Sooners are the definitive favorite.
Defensive end Ronnie Perkins makes pre-snap signals in the Sooners' 41-13 win over Oklahoma State.
Pool photo / Ty Russell
Folks, these aren't the only scenarios that land Oklahoma in the playoff for the fourth straight year. But they're the four that don't require mass chaos, and one doesn't have to bend the brain to imagine these scenarios actually coming to fruition.
On a larger scale, here's what the Sooners should root for, what they should root against, and what they shouldn't worry about.
Three things Oklahoma should root for
1) Notre Dame to validate their win over Clemson. If the Irish stay unbeaten and top the Tigers a second time, that eliminates any chance of the ACC putting both teams in the playoff. A Clemson win in the ACC championship would make the Sooners' path all the more serpentine.
2) Tulsa. Cincinnati is the one team that could throw a wrench between Oklahoma's cogs. If the Bearcats stay unbeaten, the committee will have a hard time denying them a berth in the playoff. But they still have to get past the Golden Hurricane, and that's much easier said than done given how strong Philip Montgomery's defense is. Zaven Collins may be, pound-for-pound, the best linebacker in the nation. Should TU end the Bearcats' magical run on Dec. 12, it only strengthens Oklahoma's chances.
3) Anybody but Ohio State in the Big Ten. Oklahoma still has a path to the playoff should the Buckeyes run the table, but given the fact that the Buckeyes don't have the calendar space to play more than seven total games before bowl season, one loss would essentially kill their case. Michigan State, fresh off that upset win over Northwestern, gets a crack at the Buckeyes next week before Michigan comes to the Shoe on Dec. 12.
Three things Oklahoma should root against
1) Any semblance of chaos in the SEC title game. As outlined above, a Florida win would wreak havoc on the Sooners' odds of sliding into the playoff field. The best-case scenario for Oklahoma involves Alabama breezing through the conference and locking down the No. 1 overall seed.
2) Texas A&M. The Aggies are a conundrum. What to do with a team that lost by 28 to Alabama, but toppled Florida, and hasn't tripped up against middling opponents the way Oklahoma has? Like it or not, Jimbo Fisher's team is going to have a case for the playoff if they can close out their season with wins over Auburn and Tennessee. The Vols have lost five straight games and look atrocious right now. But Bo Nix's Auburn squad just got taken to the woodshed by Alabama in the Iron Bowl. They're a better team than that 42-13 final score indicates, and if they come out with a chip on their collective shoulder next week at Jordan-Hare Stadium, the Aggies could encounter more than a little resistance.
3) An upset bid from West Virginia next week in Ames. Style points don't hurt at all, and if Oklahoma is to make a playoff run, they'll have to avenge their loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 championship. They want the Cyclones to look as attractive as possible in the eyes of the committee come Dec. 19. If the Sooners can score a lopsided win over what could very well be a top-10 team by that point, their case gets even stronger. So they'll no doubt be pulling for ISU to take care of business against the Mountaineers next week.
Three things Oklahoma shouldn't worry about
1) The Pac-12. Oregon just lost. The Ducks are (or rather, were) the only team in the conference with a prayer of making noise in the CFP race. The absolute best the Pac-12 can do at this point is a 6-0 USC team. Don't overthink this.
2) BYU. Yes, the Cougars will likely roll into bowl season 10-0. But the committee clearly doesn't value their strength of record, as evidenced by their No. 14 ranking in last week's poll. There's absolutely no way that with one more game on their schedule, BYU somehow rises ten spots by season's end and claims a CFP berth. The committee has spoken, and the Cougars are the longest of long shots at the moment.
3) Their resume alongside one-loss teams. Recency bias is a real phenomenon. Oklahoma may have two losses, but as Barta noted, those losses were close games, took place early in the season and came sans Rhamondre Stevenson and Ronnie Perkins. Especially if they're being stacked up against teams without a conference title, the Sooners are going to appear significantly more impressive than their competitors. Don't forget the eye test, either — Oklahoma has definitively looked the part of a CFP contender over the last four games, and FPI backs that up.
If there's one team across the country whose early-season struggles can be written off for one reason or another, it's Oklahoma. No one would raise much of an argument that right now, today, the Sooners would annihilate Kansas State. Similarly, you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who would favor Iowa State over Oklahoma at this point. Lincoln Riley has his team playing championship-level ball when it matters most, and the committee will certainly take that into account. This isn't the same team that opened Big 12 play with back-to-back losses, and nobody who's halfway paying attention needs the pundits to tell them that.
Are the Sooners unequivocally one of the nation's four best teams? Some may make the argument, but right now, it'd be nearly impossible to prove it. However, three weeks from now, could that reality have changed in drastic fashion? Absolutely.
Oklahoma's playoff hopes are dim at best. But they're far from dead.
And in 2020, who's to say anything is impossible?
To get the latest OU posts as they happen, join the SI Sooners Community by clicking “Follow” at the top right corner of the page (mobile users can click the notifications bell icon), and follow SI Sooners on Twitter @All_Sooners.
