Is Matchup vs. No. 9 Iowa State Must-Win for Cowboys?

Oklahoma State needs a win this weekend, and it might be a must-win matchup.

On Saturday, OSU is set to host No. 9 Iowa State in the teams’ second matchup this season. As OSU looks for a signature win, it is also looking to avoid falling out of the tournament picture even more.

No one will blame the Pokes if they fall against a top 10, particularly if they’re able to keep it competitive like they did in Ames a couple of weeks ago. Coming into this season, these games were obviously going to be uphill battles for the Cowboys, and falling against one of the top teams in the Big 12 and a team with national title hopes is far from a bad loss.

After falling against teams like Baylor and TCU early in this Big 12 slate, the Cowboys truly can’t afford any more bad losses. Iowa State clearly wouldn’t be in that category, even with the game being in Gallagher-Iba Arena.

The problem for the Cowboys is that they need to do more than simply avoid bad losses. If potential bad losses were defined simply as losses to unranked teams, avoiding losses in those games alone would net OSU seven wins.

That would put the Pokes at nine wins in conference play. Even though a 9-9 record in the Big 12 would be better than what the Cowboys have mustered in recent years, there’s a real chance that wouldn’t be enough to get the Cowboys on the right side of the bubble if the extra seven wins come only against unranked opponents.

Sure, OSU needs to win those games, but it needs more than just those games. The Cowboys need some signature wins, and a home matchup against No. 9 Iowa State is a perfect opportunity for Steve Lutz’s group. Including Saturday’s matchup, OSU has five remaining games against teams currently in the AP top 25. The Cowboys will get four of those matchups at home.

While that certainly gives the Cowboys a better chance at getting some signature wins, they still need to actually go win those games. Beating teams like Iowa State is difficult regardless of where the game is played, and OSU will still have chances to get wins against other ranked squads later in the year.

However, this matchup is as close as the Cowboys could get to a must-win for their tournament chances. A loss, albeit reasonable, would sink OSU to 2-5 in Big 12 play after it’s already been thrown out of the bubble conversation because of some other early missteps.

Had OSU held on against TCU, this probably isn’t a must-win, but this OSU team is already two games under .500 in Big 12 play, and sinking further only hurts the Cowboys. While they have some other big matchups slated for later in the year, those games may not mean much if OSU doesn’t put itself in a better situation now.