4 Main Storylines I'm Watching in Oklahoma State’s Week 9 Game vs. Iowa State
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The Oklahoma State Cowboys need a win on Saturday over the Iowa State Cyclones to be bowl eligible for the first time since 2023.
While head Eric Morris is clear that his goals for his program are bigger than bowl games, he recognizes it as a necessary step toward getting the Cowboys back to respectability.
The Cowboys (5-2, 3-1 in Big 12) and the Cyclones (3-4, 1-3) will face each other at 6 p.m. on Saturday on Fox. As we go into the game, here are the four storylines that I'm watching.
The Running Back Matchup
This could be one of the best running back matchups of the season in the Big 12. Oklahoma State’s Caleb Hawkins may be the most complete back in the conference. There are few backs that can rush and receive as well as he does. But when you throw in his ability to pass block, there's a reason why no other back on the roster has been able to get much playing time. Hawkins is a true three-down back, which means you don't bench him on obvious passing downs when you know he can pick up the blitz.
Meanwhile, Iowa State’s Aiden Flora is one of those backs that defies categorization. Sure, he's a running back. But did you see the two touchdown passes he threw against West Virginia. He's got an arm. He's a better pass catcher than I think he has shown to this point and of course he's returning punts. I wrote in my bold predictions piece that I think these two guys could compile 300 or more total years of offense. Maybe I should update to 325 or 350. It should be an exceptional matchup between two backs that do so much for their teams. I’m curious to see how it plays out.
The Sam Keltner Streak
There was some confusion about Sam Keltner’s field goal streak last week — from Keltner himself. He though he broke the record for most field goals made in a row. But it turns out he only tied it. Keltner’s first field goal attempt will give him a chance to break it on Saturday.
He’s coming off scoring 21 points against Colorado, which is the most he’s scored in his career and the most points scored by an FBS kicker since 2023. What he has done is exceptional — and unexpected.
Morris is a typical modern coach in that he would rather go for it on fourth down inside the red zone and score. But the Cowboys’ issues in the red zone have forced him to accept field goals more often and Keltner has emerged as one of his best weapons.
At some point he’ll miss a field goal. But there’s little doubt in my mind that he’s going to be a Lou Groza finalist. Not bad for a kicker whose range some openly worried about after a solid debut season at SMU, where he went 14-for-20.
The Left Tackle Rotation
I was surprised in the uptick of reps that Braydon Nelson received against Colorado. It’s not because he isn't a good player, but because it was a significant jump between the reps he got against Houston and UCF combined. He played only 10 plays in those two games and then jumped to playing essentially the same amount as Shaun Torgeson.
More importantly he was effective. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded Nelson at 71 in pass blocking, which was 15 points better than Torgeson. It just seems like it's time for Morris to go back to the alignment he was hoping for at the beginning of the season, which was Nelson at left tackle and Johnny Dickson III at left guard.
This isn't about Torgeson not being reliable. He's probably the future at right tackle when you consider this as Ashton Lepo’s final season. This is more about Nelson being the better option, being healthy, and performing at a high level going into this game.
I think Nelson's going to start. The question is how much playing time Torgeson gets behind him?
The Defense’s Slow Starts
We've talked plenty about how the Oklahoma State offense seems to get off to a slow start every week. The Cowboys took care of that against Colorado. They scored on nearly all their first half possessions, even though some of those points were field goals.
But we haven't talked a lot about the defense — it has the same problem. They've experienced it in reverse. In the first half they need time to figure things out and give up points (24 against Colorado on Saturday). For most of the half the Cowboys didn’t seem to have an answer. Then they locked things down in the second half and didn’t allow a point.
The same thing happened against West Virginia and UCF. The point here is the Cowboys are just as guilty of their defense getting off to slow starts as the offense.
When you're facing a dynamic offensive player like Aiden Flora, you really can't afford to let him get going early. I'm interested to see if this defense has a better first half. They really haven't had one since the Murray State game, but they were clearly the better team in that matchup.
Iowa state's looking for a little redemption. The last thing you want is let them build some confidence before halftime. I think this is a game where the Cowboys must figure out how to get off to a great start defensively.
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Matthew Postins is the publisher of Oklahoma State on SI. He is an award-winning sports journalist who was formerly the editor of the College Football America Yearbook and covers the Big 12 Conference for Heartland College Sports.
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