Five Reasons to Believe Oklahoma State Can Exceed Expectations This Season
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Look around preseason rankings and the Oklahoma State Cowboys are seen as a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big 12 Conference.
Many preseason publications have the Cowboys picked at No. 8 or No. 9 in the conference. That’s a huge step up from last season when they finished 1-11 and 0-9 in league play. OSU has lost its last 18 league games.
But what if the Cowboys could be better? Here are five ways they could exceed everyone’s expectations in 2026.
The Buzzy Quarterback
It’s been a while since the Cowboys have had a quarterback with this much buzz surrounding him like Drew Mestemaker. One must go back to Mason Rudolph or even Spencer Sanders. Mestemaker was recently ranked as a Tier 1 quarterback by The Athletic (subscription required) as it ranked every quarterback in FBS. That tier was reserved for quarterbacks the site considered to be “the best of the best” and Heisman contenders.
He was the NCAA FBS statistical champion in passing yards (4,379), passing yards per game (312.8), total offense (4,468) and yards per pass attempt (9.46). He threw for 34 touchdown passes and was the American Conference offensive player of the year. He is good enough to make this offense better than 2025. But if he’s that transformative a talent, the Cowboys can exceed expectations.
The Offensive Scheme
New head coach Eric Morris is a branch from the Mike Leach coaching tree, as he played for Leach at Texas Tech and subscribes to “The Pirate’s” Air Raid offense. At Big 12 media days he said that every member of the three puts their spin on the offense. But he made it clear that the Cowboys will play fast and the time of possession his team put up at North Texas last season — just 28 minutes per game — shows it.
But he believes in balance, too. Running back Caleb Hawkins rushed for more than 1,400 yards. Many of the skill players from UNT follows him up to Stillwater. Morris and his offensive coordinator, Sean Brophy, guided that offense to a 12-2 record for the Mean Green. If they can do for OSU what they did for UNT, then these Cowboys won’t be middle-of-the-pack.
Skyler Cassity Magic
North Texas’ defense wasn’t good in 2024. Morris knew it. So he handed the keys to Skyler Cassity, who has barely been a coach for a decade and is just 32 years old. He turned the Mean Green into one of the best units in the American Conference as they improved in just about every category across the board. The unit was in the middle of the road in FBS.
He’s in the same position with the Cowboys. The defense was terrible last year. Oklahoma State would accept a defense that is middle of the road over last year. But what if these Cowboys could be ranked in the Top 50 in categories like total defense and points allowed? Then OSU could exceed expectations.
A Fast Start
Looking at Oklahoma State’s schedule and there is opportunity, aside from the Oregon game, which is a likely loss. The first two months of the season, the first seven games, features only one other game where the Cowboys would be a likely underdog and that’s the Oct. 17 showdown with Houston at TDECU Stadium.
Win everything aside from the Oregon game and the Cowboys would be 6-1 going into November. They would also be right in the Big 12 Championship Game mix with four games to go. Brimming with confidence and facing the harder part of their schedule, it gives Oklahoma State a chance to exceed expectations.
Drew Svoboda Improves Two Position Groups
Svoboda has emerged as one of the most respected names in college football special teams coaching in the past decade. He’s nearly 10 years into a collegiate career with stops at Rice, Memphis, Alabama and North Texas. He also coaches tight ends. He’s worked his way up the ladder from Texas high school football.
The Cowboys had a bad special teams unit last year, too. But he has some incredibly potent tools at his disposal, including Wake Forest return man Chris Barnes. At tight end, he has the chance to tap the potential of former Texas A&M and LSU tight end Donovan Green, which would boost the offense. If he can greatly improve two position groups, the Cowboys can exceed expectations.
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Matthew Postins is the publisher of Oklahoma State on SI. He is an award-winning sports journalist who was formerly the editor of the College Football America Yearbook and covers the Big 12 Conference for Heartland College Sports.
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