How The Texas Tech Red Raiders Could Ruin Oklahoma State's Season in 2026

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are seen as one of the best teams in the country. But they could really do damage to Oklahoma State’s season.

Oklahoma State football coach Eric Morris. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Aside from Oregon, the Texas Tech Red Raiders will probably be the best team Oklahoma State will play in the 2026 season.

The Red Raiders are coming off their first Big 12 championship last season after beating BYU in the title game. It was a big deal for the Red Raiders. It was their first conference championship since the 1950s. That title helped propel them into the College Football Playoff for the first time, where they lost to, oddly enough, Oregon, in the Orange Bowl.

The Red Raiders had a tumultuous summer. But even with all that controversy they still have one of the best teams in the conference. And they are dead set on repeating as Big 12 champions.

Going into the season few believe that Oklahoma State will stand in Texas Tech’s way. Everything is new in Stillwater. But, under the right circumstances, their game on Nov. 14 at Boone Pickens Stadium could be huge — and it could ruin Oklahoma State’s season.

How Texas Tech Could Ruin Oklahoma State’s Season

Texas Tech quarterback Will Hammond. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Under what conditions could this happen? Oklahoma State would have to do something that most outsiders don't believe they can do— exceed expectations. Many analysts, preseason magazines and rankings are taking the Cowboys at No. 8 in the Big 12. That would likely have the Cowboys finishing at 5-4 in Big 12 play.

For a team that hasn't won a conference game since 2023, that would be a huge step up. But what if Oklahoma State exceeds expectations? Envision this scenario.

Oklahoma State loses the Oregon game, as most expect. The Cowboys also lose their road game at Houston on Oct. 17, a game against a team many consider to be a Big 12 title game contender.

But what if Oklahoma State wins every other game on its schedule? Then the Texas Tech game would be pivotal game. Oklahoma State would enter the game 7-2 overall and 5-1 in league play. Forget a bowl game. The Cowboys would be contending for the Big 12 title game.

Chances are, Texas Tech would also be in contention for the Big 12 title game. The Red Raiders will get every team's best game regardless of who they are. And even if Texas Tech isn't in the catbird seat in the conference race, all the Red Raiders have to do is go into Stillwater and steal one to put an enormous dent in what would be a program-changing season for Oklahoma State.

For a program screaming for optimism, a loss like that could be catastrophic. The Cowboys’ season ends at Arizona State, followed by a Thanksgiving Saturday home game against Kansas. Oklahoma State could win both those games, reach nine wins and perhaps sneak into the Big 12 title game. Or they could tailspin.

In that scenario, Texas Tech would have a massive opportunity to ruin Oklahoma State’s season. And the Cowboys would have every reason to feel like the season slipped away from them.