What Wins, What Loses Game for Oklahoma State Against Arizona State in 2026

Here’s what will win and what will lose the game for the Oklahoma State Cowboys against the Arizona State Sun Devils in the 2026 season.

Oklahoma State head coach Eric Morris. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Oklahoma State Cowboys will play the next-to-last game of their 2026 regular season against the Arizona State Sun Devils on Nov. 21.

The contest, set for Tempe, Ariz., could be a big one in the context of the season for both teams. The Cowboys hope they’ll exceed everyone’s expectations and be in contention for the Big 12 title game. The Sun Devils are hoping to make the Big 12 Championship game for the second time in three years.

Here is what wins and what loses the game for the Oklahoma State Cowboys against the Arizona State Sun Devils.

What Wins the Game for Oklahoma State

Dominate the Run Game

For those looking at the matchups in this game, the Cowboys have an edge in the run game. They have an experience, highly productive back in Caleb Hawkins, who is seeking another 1,000-yard season. The Sun Devils have a solid defensive line, led by tackle C.J. Fite, who is one of the Big 12’s best run stoppers. He’ll also open holes for new linebacker Owen Long, who led FBS in tackles and tackles per game last season.

This one is simple for the Cowboys. They need Hawkins to have a great day. That means Oklahoma State needs the offensive line to have a great day. That means dominating Fite and his cohorts up front for 60 minutes. Easier said than done. But if the Cowboys can do it, the win should be in their grasp.

Win At Cornerback

The Sun Devils have one of the best collections of wide receivers that the Cowboys will face this season. Colorado transfer Omarion Miller, Boston College transfer Reed Harris and Washington transfer Raiden Vines-Bright should give transfer quarterback Cutter Boley plenty of targets to throw to in 2026.

That puts pressure on the Cowboys secondary, led by returning starter LaDainian Fields, along with transfer Mo Horn at cornerback. The safeties should include Quinton Hammonds, Evan Jackson and Vincent Holmes, among others. The Cowboys’ pass defense was terrible in 2025. For the unit to get better, the secondary will have to play at a higher level. To win this game, it means Fields and his teammates must rise above the level of Arizona State’s wide receivers.

What Loses the Game for Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State Cowboys defensive end Jaleel Johnson. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Failing to Pressure the Passer

New Arizona State quarterback Cutter Boley posted solid numbers at Kentucky. But a couple of things stood out from his two years there. First, he threw nearly as many touchdowns as interceptions. Second, he didn’t run the football much. That’s something former quarterback Sam Leavitt did well before he transferred to LSU.

Assuming Boley is that kind of quarterback, the Cowboys need to put intense pressure on him the entire contest, led by ends Jaleel Johnson and James Williams. It isn’t just about sack of course. It’s also about pressures. But if the Cowboys can’t get either on Boley, with those wide receivers, it’s going to be a long game.

Not Handling the Pressure

This game is liable to mean something to both teams. Arizona State has won 19 games in the last two years, including a Big 12 Championship. The Cowboys have won just four games in the last two years, including a 1-11 season in 2025. Oklahoma State should be much better in 2026. A bowl game, at minimum, should be the Cowboys’ goal. The Sun Devils, meanwhile, are seeking a third straight quality season under head coach Kenny Dillingham.

OSU might need this win for a bowl game. If things are going well, the Cowboys might need this game to stay in the hunt for the Big 12 title game. Can a program that hasn’t been to a Big 12 title game since 2023 and barely has any players left from that team handle that pressure? If they can’t, there is a good chance they lose.