What Wins, What Loses Game for Oklahoma State Against Houston in 2026
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The Oklahoma State Cowboys will reach the midpoint of their season when they face the Houston Cougars on Oct. 17.
This could be a highly meaningful game for the Cowboys, depending upon how they started the season and how they did in their first two Big 12 games, which on paper are winnable contests. Houston is considered a preseason contender for the Big 12 Championship game.
Here is what wins and what loses the game for the Oklahoma State Cowboys against the Houston Cougars.
What Wins the Game for Oklahoma State
Effective Offensive Balance
The Cowboys could have one of the most exciting offenses in the Big 12 Conference in 2026. It isn’t just the Air Raid under head coach Eric Morris and his staff. It’s the level of talent running the offense, a good amount of which played for Morris at North Texas last season.
Houston had one of the better defenses in the Big 12 last season and the Cougars’ offense is also hard to slow down. The temptation in a game where the points could come rolling in is to give into passing the football. Oklahoma State shouldn’t do that. The Cowboys need to remain balanced and make sure that running back Caleb Hawkins is a part of the game plan, even if it doesn’t work initially. It’s fine to use the passing game to break up the running game. Just don’t forget about the running game.
Slowing Down Conner Weigman
Weigman emerged as a terrific player last season after three uneven and injury-plagued seasons at Texas A&M. The quarterback had a great year passing the football, but where he was a real difference maker was on the ground. He rushed for 700 yards and scored 11 touchdowns. He can make defenses pay in designed run plays, short-yardage sneaks or off-schedule plays.
For the Cowboys, the defensive game plan must be geared to reading offensive schemes correctly and setting edges so Weigman can’t escape and pick up big gains on the run. It’s one thing to give up a third-down pass completion. It’s another to let Weigman’s legs break open a drive that should have led to a change of possession.
What Loses the Game for Oklahoma State
Failing to Slow the Run Game
The Oklahoma State defense is going to have its hands full assuming former Tulane and Oregon running back Makhi Hughes starts for the Cougars. He’s with the Coogs after one season with the Ducks where he got 17 carries and only rushed for 70 yards. That was after back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with the Green Wave. He’ll clearly be chomping at the bit for playing time.
He’s playing for the head coach that recruited him at Tulane, Willie Fritz. It’s a scheme that served him well his freshman year in 2023. The Cowboys’ defense, a 4-2-5 scheme, will have to set edges well and bring Hughes down on the first contact. He was efficient at shedding contact and getting extra yards at Tulane. A game with more than 100 yards or more than five yards per carry would put OSU in a tough spot.
Too Many Failed Third Downs on Offense
One of the many threads from Morris’ time at North Texas was time of possession. The Mean Green only held the football 28 minutes per game last year. The Mean Green ran the Air Raid offense, and the Cowboys will run it as well. So, if a team is only going to possess the ball for 28 minutes per game, then moving the chains and converting on third down is key, right?
Last season North Texas was No. 23 in third-down conversion percentage at 46.2%. A team that runs the Air Raid can sacrifice a bit of time of possession if it’s converting third down at that rate. Oklahoma State last season was terrible in the category. The Cowboys ranked No. 107 with a 34.8% conversion rate.
So, if the Cowboys are converting close to last year’s UNT percentage, then there’s a good chance they’re in this game. If it’s closer to OSU last year, then it’s an uphill battle.
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Matthew Postins is the publisher of Oklahoma State on SI. He is an award-winning sports journalist who was formerly the editor of the College Football America Yearbook and covers the Big 12 Conference for Heartland College Sports.
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