ESPN's FPI Predictions For Ole Miss Are Shocking

ESPN's Football Power Index is predicting Ole Miss will have a surprising end to their season.

Mississippi Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss walks off the field during a timeout against the Florida Gators during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels are headed into the bye week with major questions about how the team will respond following a brutal 52-28 loss to No. 8 Florida.

Leaders for the Rebels, like quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and linebacker Keaton Thomas, remain confident in their team's ability to bounce back and not let losing to Florida ruin the season.

However, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), a predictive rating system that measures team strength and projects game outcomes, predicts the disappointment will continue for Ole Miss and its fan base.

How Will Ole Miss Finish the Year According to ESPN's FPI?

Mississippi Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss winces from the ground while Florida Gators defensive lineman Jeramiah McCloud makes a gesture during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

ESPN's FPI currently ranks Ole Miss No. 19, ahead of Mississippi State at No. 20 and Oklahoma at No. 21. The ranking is not based on resume, like the AP or College Football Playoff rankings are; it's based on how the FPI predicts every team will perform until the end of the season.

For example, LSU is currently ranked 11 spots ahead of Ole Miss at No. 8 in the FPI, despite having the same record and a loss to the Rebels.

The model also predicts teams' records at the end of the season. Currently, the model projects Ole Miss to finish 7-5, which would be a massive disappointment for a team with playoff and even national championship hopes.

Although a slow end to the season like that is certainly possible, the Rebels are talented enough to correct their issues and reach their high aspirations.

Which Teams is the FPI Predicting to Beat Ole Miss?

Mississippi Rebels place kicker Lucas Carneiro makes a go-ahead field goal against the Georgia Bulldogs in the final seconds in the fourth quarter during the 2026 Sugar Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The FPI doesn't directly predict matchup outcomes, but it is one of the factors in ESPN Analytics that does give percentage chances for each team to win under ESPN's matchup predictor.

Looking at the matchup predictor for the rest of Ole Miss' season, Ole Miss is projected to lose against No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Georgia and Oklahoma. That would put Ole Miss at four losses, meaning the FPI predicts the Rebels will drop an additional game they're supposed to win.

Here's where the model's reasoning may be flawed. The game against Florida was embarrassing; no one, not even those on the team, would deny that, but the loss was defined by terrible run defense. Ole Miss' defense gave up more than 300 rushing yards, of which more than 200 were after contact.

If Ole Miss head coach Pete Golding, who previously was the team's defensive coordinator and still calls plays on defense, can get the physicality up and make sure the defense is securing tackles, it's possible that issue can be fixed, or at minimum, improved to the point it's not a backbreaking issue for the Rebels.

It will also help that Ole Miss is unlikely to face another running back duo quite as talented as Florida's Duke Clark and projected first-round pick Jadan Baugh.

Ole Miss' secondary has also been off to a hot-and-cold start to the season, but games like the Magnolia Bowl have shown the high potential of the group if they can correct sloppy mistakes.

Offense hasn't been a concern for Ole Miss thanks to Heisman contender Trinidad Chambliss, who's thrown for more than 1,200 yards, scored 12 total touchdowns and thrown just three interceptions.

Another reason for the Florida loss was star running back Kewan Lacy missing the game with an injury. Lacy ran for more than 1,500 yards and scored 24 touchdowns last season.

Assuming Trinidad Chambliss can keep carrying the passing game and Kewan Lacy can get and stay healthy for the rest of the season, the offense will be able to keep up with anyone, even teams like Texas and Georgia.

The more difficult task will be bringing the defense to the level of a College Football Playoff team. However, that's where Rebel fans will need to put faith in Pete Golding to correct his defense and lead his team back to the College Football Playoff, this time with Golding in charge for the whole season.

To make it there, Ole Miss will likely have to split the Texas and Georgia games to finish at 10-2. Texas will be a tough task, but Golding has a pretty good track record against Georgia, calling the defense for the 2024 win at home and being the head coach in the Sugar Bowl last season.

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