Matt Corral Ranks Top 5 Nationally in CPOE After One Week

Not only did Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral put up the best pure numbers of his career on Saturday, throwing for 395 yards and three touchdowns against No. 5 Florida, he did it in just about the most efficient way possible.

Of all eligible college passers, Corral now ranks No. 4 nationally in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) after week one, trailing only Clemson's Trevor Lawrence, Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler and BYU's Zach Wilson.

#CFB Passing Leaders - Comp. % Over Expected

1️⃣ Lawrence - #Clemson 23%
2️⃣ Rattler - #BoomerSooner 20%
3️⃣ Wilson - #BYU 20%
4️⃣ Corral - #OleMiss 16%
5️⃣ Jones - #RollTide 15%
6️⃣ Illingworth - #OKState 15%
7️⃣ White - #Memphis 14%
8️⃣ Ehlinger - #Texas 13%
9️⃣ Bennett - #UGA 13%
— SportSource Analytics (@SportSourceA) September 29, 2020

So what does that really mean? Corral came in at 16-percent over expected. Essentially, this is calculated by taking the completion percentage for what is the "average" quarterback, and measuring how much each quarterback is above or below that average by completion percentage.

The measure also factors in the distance and air yards under each throw to account for the level of difficulty. For Corral, those air yards really help him out, as he got to those 395 yards by attempting only 31 passes – he leads the SEC in yards per attempt.

Historically, CPOE is a really interesting number, and iputs Corral in light we may not have even thought about moving forward. Research by Josh Hermsmeyer, a football data analysts for FiveThirtyEight, has found that college CPOE is one of the best measures of predicting college quarterback success in the NFL, more important than completion percentage, Total QBR, yards per attempt, and much more.

Why is that so? Hermsmeyer has a few ideas:

One possible explanation is that it’s measuring not just accuracy but also the signal from other qualities that are crucial to pro success. The ability to consistently find the open receiver and complete a pass to him requires a quarterback first to read a defense and then to throw on time and on target.

Sure, Corral has played just one game this year. But his one game was pretty remarkable, and done against one of the best defenses in the nation. There's a lot of reasons for optimism for the Ole Miss quarterback.

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