Don't Judge Dan Lanning and the Oregon Ducks Yet

Reassessing where this Oregon team is at and where they need to get to after a brutal week one loss.

Author:
Dylan Mickanen
Publish date:
Sep 6, 2022 1:45 PM EDT

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Oregon Ducks

The sky is not falling. It's reasonable to be worried, the loss to Georgia had zero positives, but it was just one game.

Despite what Oregon preached all offseason leading into the matchup, the program had to know it was going to be a beating. Georgia had better players, larger crowd, better coaching, better everything. It was going to take a miracle to leave Mercedes-Benz Stadium 1-0.

Rather than make enough mistakes to keep Oregon in the game, the Bulldogs played perfect. Georgia clearly belongs within the elite of college football and despite defeating Ohio State last season, Oregon still has immense work to do to get where they want to be.

When Oregon scheduled the game in Atlanta, it was right before the first full season of the Mario Cristobal era. Georgia had lost in the National Championship with the Ducks seeing unprecedented success on the recruiting trail under its new head coach.

Make no mistake, this game was scheduled for Oregon to see if it could compete with the best in the sport after a full four-year cycle under Cristobal.

What happened instead was Cristobal went home to Miami leaving new head coach Dan Lanning to scramble and save a recruiting class, start running his program his way and prepare his team to play the defending national champions.

If that game was supposed to be a test for Lanning and his staff, it was the college football version of the Kobayashi Maru from Star Trek; an impossible scenario to win.

Even Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart basically agreed.

"He's gonna do a really good job at Oregon," Smart said of Lanning after Saturday's game. "He's relentless. They'll bounce back from this, and he knows we have better players. He'll never say that, but he knows we've got better players."

Duck fans would be wise to trust what Smart says here, as the now-National Championship-winning coach was there just six years ago. In Smart's first season at Georgia, the Bulldogs went 8-5 with losses to Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech.

That's not to say the Ducks will have a similar record this year. Oregon's not in the SEC and has the nation's seventh-most talented roster per 247Sports Team Talent Composite rankings. You need to scroll to No. 21 to find the next-most talented team on Oregon's schedule in Washington (Georgia trailed only Alabama and has more five-stars than the Pac-12 conference combined.)

WATCH: Dan Lanning gives final Georgia review, turns page to Eastern Washington

If Lanning and his staff are good coaches like we believe based on their track records, we'll may know sooner than later given the Ducks will have the raw talent advantage in every upcoming game. Should the Ducks struggle to an eight-win record, that would be disappointing, but it could also easily be growing pains for Lanning as a head coach.

Remember Chip Kelly and Mario Cristobal both had awful opening losses to Boise State to begin their tenures in Eugene. Both coaches also won the Pac-12 within two seasons as head coach.

In year two under Kelly, the Ducks went 12-0 and lost in the National Championship game to Auburn. In Year Two under Cristobal, the Ducks won the Pac-12 and the Rose Bowl.

Sometimes it simply takes time and judging a head coach after one season, barring consistently disastrous results, is dumb. If coaches only did as well as their first season, Clay Helton would still be as USC.

Remember the 2016 Trojans? They lost to No. 1 Alabama 52-6 to open Helton's tenure as Trojans head coach. USC then went on to begin 1-3 (a disastrous but plausible scenario for Oregon with BYU and a trip to Washington State coming up).

How did that season end? With USC winning the Rose Bowl and ranked No. 3 in the AP Poll.

I bring up that team for two reasons. First, we've seen a Pac-12 team get decimated by an SEC opponent to open a season before and go on to win the Rose Bowl in a head coach's introductory season. Oregon can still win the conference this year. Second, you can't judge a head coach or a staff after one season, let alone one game.

If Oregon goes 6-6 with losses to Georgia, BYU, Utah, Washington, at Arizona, and another random Pac-12 game, then Ducks fans should rightly be worried heading into 2023. But wait to worry until that reality comes true because right now, Oregon's the most talented team in the Pac-12 with a favorable home schedule and the inside track to make the program's fifth consecutive conference championship appearance.

Wait to judge Lanning after a full season and another recruiting cycle under his belt. Wait to see if Oregon's ranked at season's end and if the program can sign the top recruiting class in the Pac-12 for the fifth consecutive cycle.

Until then, enjoy watching your favorite college football team play every Saturday and see what happens.

Prior to the Georgia dismantling, Lanning met with his staff and told them that no matter the result in their season opener, every goal that team has is still possible.

"I told our coaching staff before this morning, before we ever played the game, we had a staff meeting, and I said every single one of our goals is going to be ahead of us regardless of how this game comes out. Win, loss, draw, every one of our goals is still right here in front of us. Our players feel the exact same way."

Lanning's right. He and his team deserves the opportunity to prove themselves before being raked through the coals for failing an impossible test.