Oregon, The Playoff, and How To Get There

With the CFP rankings out earlier this week and a tough stretch of the schedule ahead, we look at the Ducks chances for the playoffs and what has to happen for them to get there.

Author:
Mark Wang
Publish date:
Nov 12, 2022 12:34 PM EST

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Oregon Ducks

The Oregon Ducks could actually make the College Football Playoff. There, I said it.

If you had asked me earlier this year, after the beatdown from Georgia and the success of other teams, I would have said absolutely no way. But with the recent playoff rankings putting the Ducks at No. 6 and with a lot of interesting matchups coming, the Ducks have a legitimate chance to make it.

So what needs to happen for the Ducks to make that a reality?

First: Ducks must win out

This one seems simple enough. They've got to win the rest of the regular season and the Pac-12 title. There's no way the committee would put Oregon in if they don't. Not with other one-loss teams or non-conference champs that look better than the Ducks.

It won't be easy though. Oregon has a brutal back half of the schedule. Washington and Utah both come to Autzen, and the Ducks will travel to Corvallis to close out the regular season in another rivalry game against Oregon State.

Right now it looks like if they make it to Vegas for the conference title they'll likely face USC or UCLA. If all of that works out and they can successfully return to the top of the conference, they've done their job.

From there, it's up to the selection committee. What's their view of Oregon, who would at that point be a one-loss Pac-12 champion.

Can they look past the season-opening loss to Georgia, one that came in blowout fashion? And how much credit do they give the Ducks, who have made a complete 180 in the time since?

Second: Chaos

A little chaos always makes college football fun-- granted it won't be nearly as insane as the '07 season, but a little chaos makes things interesting.

As the rankings stand now (Week 10), Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, and Tennessee stand in front of Oregon. If the Ducks wants a sure spot to get in, there's got to be insanity.

Starting with Tennessee, if they lose again they're out. Two losses and no SEC title bid all but surely eliminates them.

Then there's TCU. If they lose to Texas, that would almost surely knock them out of the playoff hunt. Furthermore, playoff committee has a reputation of not favoring many Big 12 teams aside Texas and Oklahoma.

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Then we come to Ohio State and Michigan. This one is I think is the most interesting. Should one of them lose once before The Game, and then lose The Game, they'd be out. But if both go in undefeated then I think Ohio State could get in even if they lose, so Oregon fans probably want Ohio State to take a couple of losses to get them in.

Georgia losing would create the most chaos, but would also present an issue potentially for the Ducks. Since Georgia destroyed Oregon at the beginning of the season, Duck fans want to see Georgia keep winning so that loss looks as good as possible. If Georgia were to slip up and lose a couple of games--which is extremely unlikely-- then that Oregon loss looks doesn't look as good and the Ducks would potentially lose ground in the playoff hunt.

So while Oregon has a chance to get in, and a realistic chance at that, they'll still need help. These next few weeks will be critical, as Oregon and the teams ahead of them go through some pretty tough games.

For the Ducks, it starts Saturday at Autzen, when the Ducks play the Huskies. Kickoff is set for 4:10 pm PT on Fox.

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