3 Reasons Penn State Will Win, and 3 Reasons Penn State Will Lose, at Washington

How the Nittany Lions can beat the Huskies, and how they can blow it.

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell looks on from the sideline against the Purdue Boilermakers at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Penn State is a slight underdog Saturday against Washington, where it hasn’t played since 1921. That team completed an undefeated season with a 21-7 win over the “Sundodgers” (they didn’t become the Huskies until 1922).

This Penn State football team doesn’t feature a College Football Hall of Fame quarterback, as the 1921 team did with Glenn Killinger, so it must improvise. The Nittany Lions need to travel their newly successful run game, make Washington quarterback Demond Williams Jr. (and his gettable offensive line) frantic and return at least one key receiver.

So what is Penn State’s path to victory? Here are three reasons the Nittany Lions will win and three why they will lose against the Huskies.

Why Penn State will win at Washington

Penn State Nittany Lions running back Cam Wallace (26) is lifted by offensive lineman Anthony Donkoh (68) after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Cam Wallace gets 100 yards on 20 carries

Wallace was a tremendous storyline of Penn State’s 31-17 win over Purdue, emerging from the deep in the running backs room to rush for 131 yards on 22 carries, both Penn State season-highs. Now, he needs to become the offense's featured back. 

Penn State coach Matt Campbell essentially said this week that Wallace will get another start, riding alongside complementary back Carson Hansen. Beyond that, Wallace needs to get at least 20 carries again.

Wallace proved his patience and power against Purdue’s lapsed run defense. Washington’s is better. So even if Wallace doesn’t generate first-quarter yards, Penn State can’t stray from him. He needs time and space to develop rhythm. It’s beyond time to make this a two-back offense, with Wallace as the No. 1.

Receiver Chase Sowell returns

Penn State wide receiver Chase Sowell (0) makes a catch against Michigan cornerback Smith Snowden (3) during the second half at Michigan Stadium. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Even if Wallace is sharp again, Penn State won’t be able to run 51 times as it did against Purdue, which puts more stress on quarterback Rocco Becht. And he’s much better with Chase Sowell on the field.

Koby Howard is unlikely to play, and even if he does, his snaps will be minimal. Sowell is the big-play threat Becht desperately needs, particularly if the team gets behind.

Penn State’s offense has been suspect early in road games and isn't built to come from behind without Sowell, especially if Becht starts throwing through keyholes again. But using play-action with the run game, and with Sowell in it, gives the Nittany Lions a critical dimension to their offense.

Penn State’s defensive line gets three sacks

Penn State Nittany Lions defensive end Yvan Kemajou (19) reacts after sacking Purdue Boilermakers quarterback Ryan Browne during the fourth quarte at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Penn State’s front-four pass rush is one of the Big Ten’s least intimidating. It took eight games for a defensive lineman (Yvan Kemajou) to get a sack. The Nittany Lions are tied for last in the Big Ten with five sacks in conference games.

But they get a break Saturday. Washington’s offensive line, despite its size, gives up the pocket. The Huskies have allowed a conference-high 26 sacks, 23 in Big Ten play. It doesn’t help them that quarterback Demond Williams Jr. occasionally walks into pressure. 

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Washington’s offensive strength is a combination of Williams’ arm and his scrambling ability. Kemajou, Caleb Bacon and Alexander McPherson can neutralize that by finishing their pass rush off the edge and getting Williams to the turf.

Why Penn State will lose at Washington

Washington Huskies quarterback Demond Williams Jr. (1) scrambles against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the fourth quarter at Memorial Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The defense can’t corral Demond Williams Jr.

Washington has issues at quarterback. Williams isn’t truly healthy, and his replacement Elijah Brown got pulled at Nebraska. But Williams is back, for better or worse.

Campbell called Williams the most mobile quarterback in the Big Ten, and Penn State's defense has “videotape evidence” (as the coach likes to say) of being unable to control that. Williams will be difficult to unplug, even if he’s spied by linebacker Tony Rojas.

The key for Penn State is to make Williams a one-dimensional thrower, close his run lanes and get physical with the receivers. The Nittany Lions will regret allowing Williams to beat them on the ground on third-and-long, as other quarterbacks have this season.

Rocco Becht plays hero ball

The quarterback who led seven game-winning drives at Iowa State has not been that player at Penn State. Becht suppressed his will to thread needles vs. Purdue, boosted by a run game that allowed him to be a manager.

Penn State doesn’t want to force this version of Becht, particularly if Sowell isn’t healthy, to play hero ball. Becht is at his best in controlled play-action sets, rolling into throws and taking the occasional deep shot. To that end, the Nittany Lions can’t fall behind 14-0. They haven’t won a game down a touchdown yet this year.

Washington receiver Chris Lawson breaks contain

Washington Huskies wide receiver Chris Lawson (8) runs the ball against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Washington has a good receiving corps, led by Chris Lawson, who has been superb in Big Ten play. Lawson has caught 18 passes for 258 yards the past two weeks, including the game-winner from Williams at Nebraska.

So this becomes a referendum game for Penn State’s cornerbacks, particularly Audavion Collins, who has allowed just five receptions all year. Washington wants to avoid the Lawson-Collins matchup as much as possible, but Daryus Dixson is a worthy companion in Penn State's secondary. Watch for the Huskies to target Penn State’s safeties as much in coverage as possible.

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