Maybe Matt Campbell's Formula Is Working at Penn State After All

The biggest question that comes with losing streaks is, how bad can they get? The biggest question about winning streaks is, how good can they get?

For Penn State football, a thrashing of Minnesota on Saturday night at a rainy Beaver Stadium has opened the door to fans putting the midseason slide behind them and instead entertaining the idea of winning five straight and heading to a bowl game.

While Penn State (6-4) might have bigger and better aspirations as a program, there’s something to be said for head coach Matt Campbell and his team finding a way to turn the corner after losing four straight Big Ten games in September and October.

“I don't think I've wavered from my belief in what this football team could become and who they were,” Campbell said after the Nittany Lions’ 42-14 victory over the Gophers. “There's been a lot that this group, coaching staff included, has had to work through to navigate this whole journey. I said from the beginning that we weren't going to shortcut this process.

"We weren't going to try to win at all costs. We're going to try to build the right foundation, and we were going to do it the right way. I think this group's got a chance to put a powerful statement together.”

Are the Nittany Lions playing bad teams right now? Sure. Nobody is going to accuse Purdue, Washington or a beaten-up Minnesota of being the best the Big Ten has to offer. Nor Maryland and Rutgers of being marquee programs.

The winning streak might end up simply being a list of wins that were once a foregone conclusion. But winning is winning. And Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck was impressed.

"Got to give Penn State a lot of credit," Fleck said. "They’re playing really well, especially the last few weeks. When they don't turn the ball over, they win. When they turn the ball over, they lose. And they did not turn the ball over."

Penn State's history of bounceback seasons

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Penn State Nittany Lions offensive lineman Dominic Rulli holds the Governor's Victory Bell trophy after beating Minnesota. — Penn State Nittany Lions offensive lineman Dominic Rulli (52) holds the Governor's Victory Bell trophy while singing the alma mater following the game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Just a few weeks ago, Penn State was part of — and to some extent still is — the middle to lower tier of the league this season. Beating bad teams might not be worth writing home about, but beating bad teams at least puts you a step above them.

For Penn State, there is historic precedent that one subpar season doesn’t mean another one is incoming. In fact, if Penn State wins its final two games, getting to eight for the regular season, it will have followed a seven-, eight- or nine-win season with an improved record seven out of the last nine times, if we exclude the heaviest NCAA-sanctioned years.

2025 record: 7-6. 2026 record: Potentially 9-4
2021 record: 7-6. 2022 record: 11-2
2018 record: 9-4. 2019 record: 11-2
2015 record: 7-6. 2016 record: 11-3
2010 record: 7-6. 2011 record: 9-4
2007 record. 9-4. 2008 record: 11-2
2004 record. 4-7. 2005 record: 11-1

There are, as mentioned, exceptions to this rule, and seasons have gotten longer over time. Penn State went 9-4 in both 2006 and 2007. It didn’t win more than eight games between 2012 and 2015. From 2000 through 2004, Penn State won five, five, nine, three and four games over those respective seasons.

But Penn State has also experienced a lot of bounceback. An uninteresting 2015 turned into a Big Ten Championship in 2016. An injury-filled 2021 turned into a Rose Bowl win in 2022. A four-win season in 2004 turned into a near-perfect season in 2005.

Will the same happen for Matt Campbell as it did for James Franklin and Joe Paterno? Time will tell. The Nittany Lions have to figure out a good number of problems between now and then — among them, who exactly is going to be the starting quarterback? Penn State also plays Michigan, Indiana, Oregon among others, so it’s hard to pencil in an obvious turnaround season.

But you can’t turn the corner until you start winning, and Penn State has now won three straight and could eye a whole lot more than that when it’s all said and done. And while it might have looked ugly, a nine-win season wouldn’t be a bad deal considering how things started.

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