The One Stat That's Driving Penn State Coach Matt Campbell Crazy This Season

Penn State coach Matt Campbell called his team’s second-half play this season a “real problem.” The Nittany Lions have been outscored 84-40 in the second halves of six Big Ten matchups and nearly blew a 28-6 halftime lead to Washington.

Which means that no Nittany Lions lead is safe, perhaps even against Minnesota, which brings the nation’s 102nd-ranked offense to Beaver Stadium on Saturday night. But if you look a little closer, it’s not just the second half as a whole.

Penn State has been outscored 42-9 in the third quarter alone, including 11-0 against the Huskies. The Nittany Lions have not scored a third-quarter touchdown against a Big Ten opponent this season. Campbell said that’s his biggest concern, citing a study that found, in one-score games, teams that win the third quarter win the game 92 percent of the time.

“It's a real problem, I'll be honest with you,” Campbell said. “My concern is, I think there's times where it's a mental maturity piece of it, in my opinion, that you're up in some of those games, and like it's a mental relapse. We’ve got to figure it out. It starts with the head football coach making sure.”

Breaking down the third-quarter breakdowns

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht (3) runs the ball against the Washington Huskies at Husky Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Penn State has entered the third quarter tied or with the lead in five of its six Big Ten games. The team is 2-3 in those games, with the two wins coming in the last two weeks against Purdue and Washington. In those three losses, the Nittany Lions have had some dispiriting collapses.

Against Wisconsin, Penn State blew a 17-0 first-half lead and a 20-10 fourth-quarter lead, during which it had a 98.5-percent chance to win, per ESPN’s win probability matrix. The Badgers scored 14 points in the final four minutes to win 24-20.

Against USC, the Nittany Lions’ offense scored 17 points in the first half against a subpar Trojans defense. In the next two quarters, they put up just two field goals, were outscored 14-6 and ultimately loss 21-23.

And against Michigan, the Penn State defense was bludgeoned in the second half, allowing five plays of 18+ yards, including two runs of 40+ yards. The Wolverines, who totaled 80 first-half yards and benched their quarterback, turned three Rocco Becht second-half turnovers into a 21-18 victory.

Penn State has lost the third quarter in every conference matchup but against Purdue and Wisconsin, which it tied 3-3. The only third quarter the Nittany Lions won was against the Boilermakers, 3-0. Campbell said he, his staff and players have talked about it extensively, especially after Washington.

“That is probably my biggest frustration,” Campbell said of the team’s third-quarter play. “That is an area we have been very good [at Iowa State], and we have not been so far. I think it's 42-9 right now in Big Ten games that in the third quarter we're getting outscored.

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“Why is that? What is that? Believe me, there is an elite sense of urgency from the head football coach, our staff, then obviously our players to understand it's not okay. It's an area that we have to demand a pathway forward.”

'We didn't play like we deserved to win'

Washington Huskies quarterback Demond Williams Jr. passes for a two-point conversion against the Penn State Nittany Lions. — Washington Huskies quarterback Demond Williams Jr. (1) passes for a two-point conversion against the Penn State Nittany Lions during the fourth quarter at Husky Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Penn State defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn said leverage and missed tackles have haunted the defense in the last two quarters of games. He pointed to five plays against Washington where his unit lost leverage and gave up big plays, which was “frustrating” to see. He used an interesting term to describe how his team has played in some second halves.

“We have to not get bored doing the same thing over and over again,” Lynn said Tuesday. “And as the game goes on and we start getting into the 40s, 50s, and 60s as far as snaps, we can't lose that focus when we get tired.”

Washington did not have an explosive pass play of 20+ yards in the first half. Quarterback Demond Williams Jr. completed two in the second half, of 21 and 39 yards, both of which set up touchdowns.

Lynn said Penn State made the Huskies earn the big plays in the first half. In the second half, not so much. And Lynn said there were “too many” of them.

“When you look at that second half, we didn’t play like we deserved to win,” Lynn said. “And we all felt like that.”

Linebacker Cael Brezina agreed. He said the team needed a “better sense of urgency,” not just against Washington, but in past Big Ten games, too. But they’re looking into how to fix it. Whether that’s their halftime routine, how they warm up before the third quarter or why they’re just letting their foot off the gas, Brezina said it has to be fixed. So did Campbell.

“Whether that's we’ve got to do a better job at halftime, whether we have to have better schematic plans coming out of the second half, or we have to do a better job mentally getting our guys ready to go play the second half. Whatever those things are, I think it's fair to shoot holes in all of it because it's not getting done. We have to be better.”

Penn State hosts Minnesota for a 7 p.m. ET kickoff Saturday night at Beaver Stadium. FS1 will televise.

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