Penn State-Minnesota Prediction: Getting Offensive
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A few years ago, James Franklin summarized being Penn State's coach like this.
"My favorite thing about being coach at Penn State is the 107,000 fans after a win," he said. "My least favorite thing is the 600,000 fans after a loss."
Franklin returns to Beaver Stadium on Saturday, when his 16th-ranked Lions host Minnesota in the always-popular White Out game. However, this edition chilled slightly after Penn State's 41-17 loss at Michigan.
Though ticket demand remains high, the game doesn't have the luster it once did. Penn State fell from the top 10, and Minnesota, unranked after consecutive losses, might be without its starting quarterback.
Six years ago, Penn State played Minnesota the week after a blowout loss to Michigan. Franklin walked to the locker room at halftime to chants of "Fire Franklin!" as his team trailed the Gophers 13-3. The Lions recovered for a 26-23 overtime victory, beginning a nine-game win streak that concluded with the Big Ten title.
Earlier this week, former Penn State tight end Mike Gesicki texted a reminder to Franklin about that season. Perhaps he'll get another chance Saturday night.
No. 16 Penn State (5-1) vs. Minnesota (4-2)
- When: 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday
- Where: Beaver Stadium
- TV: ABC
- Streaming: FuboTV (Start your free trial)
- Betting Line: Penn State is a 4-point favorite per SI Sportsbook
- Series History: Penn State leads 9-6
- Last Meeting: Minnesota 31-26 in 2019
- Streaks: Penn State has won three straight at home vs. Minnesota
The Story Line
After getting run out of Michigan Stadium, almost literally, Penn State's defense returned home to watch film together. Franklin sat in on that meeting. What the footage showed him was a disorganized defense in which some players, eager to stop Michigan's run game, began freelancing.
"Their investment level is high, and guys end up trying to make plays rather than specifically doing their job," Franklin said. "The reality is, a lot of times when do you that, the plays come to you organically. ... It's going to be important that we get those things corrected and corrected quickly, because we've got a team [in Minnesota] that likes to do similar things."
It certainly does. The Gophers rely on running back Mohamed Ibrahim, who has the nation's longest streak of consecutive 100-yard games (14). It dates to 2020 and should be longer but for the 13 games Ibrahim has not played the past two seasons.
Minnesota also boasts a top-10 offensive line across multiple statistical categories, according to Football Outsiders. It's even rated higher than Michigan's in categories such as average line yards per carry and power success rate (short-yardage conversions)j.
Further, Minnesota offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca knows Penn State's defensive personnel, is comfortable playing to his team's strengths and must scheme around limitations (potentially at quarterback). If Penn State cannot stop the run for a second consecutive week, Franklin might hear those chants again.
Minnesota running back Mohamed Ibrahim ranks fourth nationally in rushing yards per game (138.8), sixth in scoring (10.8 ppg) and ninth in rushing touchdowns (nine).
Kirthmon F. Dozier/USA Today Sports
Penn State Players to Watch
Nicholas Singleton: The freshman running back returns home after his least productive college game (six carries, 19 yards) looking to recapture his early season magic.
Theo Johnson: After working through an injury, the tight end said he's "feeling as good as I've felt." Franklin has said several times this season he has one of the best tight end groups in the country. A healthy Johnson reminds the coaching staff what the room can do.
Hakeem Beamon: Penn State's defensive line seeks a bounceback performance following its struggles at Michigan. Beamon and fellow tackle PJ Mustipher can take the lead by disrupting Minnesota's run game.
Minnesota Players to Watch
Athan Kaliakmanis: Meet Minnesota's likely quarterback if starter Tanner Morgan can't play. A redshirt freshman and former 4-star recruit, Kaliakmanis is 6-4/205 and has "incredible natural ability," coach P.J. Fleck said.
Danny Striggow: Watch for the 6-2, 250-pound end in Minnesota's line rotation. Striggow leads the team in tackles for loss (four) and sacks (three) and also has an interception.
John Michael Schmitz: Like watching centers? Keep an eye on Schmitz, an Outland Trophy contender who will help brace the introduction for Minnesota's starting quarterback.
The Prediction
Penn State's offense is nagged by doubt after scoring 27 points and three touchdowns over its past two games. It needs better quarterback play, more big plays, more tight ends, more everything. Offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich must pull Penn State from the rut soon, particularly with Ohio State coming to town.
To their benefit, the Lions are facing a one-dimensional offense that their defense should be able to contain. Penn State has to make Ibrahim's yards not matter, then cash in behind Singleton and Kaytron Allen.
This is an important game for the Lions, who make it count.
Penn State 27, Minnesota 20
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Read More
How the Penn State White Out became the greatest show in college sports
Penn State-Minnesota tickets are among the hottest in college football
Minnesota's Kirk Ciarrocca returns to Penn State as a 'better coach'
After blowout losses, Penn State has been resilient
Michigan Stadium tunnel a 'problem,' James Franklin says
No change yet at quarterback for Penn State
For Penn State, what to fix first?
The quarterbacks, and their injuries, are the story of Penn State-Minnesota
AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.
