Three Keys to a Penn State Upset of No. 1 Ohio State

The Nittany Lions are significant underdogs against the Buckeyes. Here's how they might pull off the stunner.

Penn State Nittany Lions running back Kaytron Allen (13) runs the ball against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the second quarter at Kinnick Stadium. | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Rewind to Penn State’s Sept. 27 White Out game in Happy Valley. The No. 3 Nittany Lions led No. 6 Oregon 24-17 in overtime. With one defensive stop, the Nittany Lions would have been on their way to setting up a potential 1-2 matchup against Ohio State.

But now, Saturday’s Penn State-Ohio State game at the Horseshoe doesn’t hold nearly the same meaning. Ohio State is a 20.5-point favorite, and the game has championship stakes for only one team.  

With the Nittany Lions in dire need of a win, they travel to Columbus to battle first-ranked Ohio State. They’re also looking to end an eight-game losing streak to the Buckeyes.  

Kickoff is slated for noon on FOX. Play-by-play announcer Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt will be on the call. Here’s how Penn State can shock the world vs. the Buckeyes. 

RELATED: Penn State vs. Ohio State tale of the tape, predictions

Win the ground game

Penn State Nittany Lions running back Nicholas Singleton (10) breaks a tackle to run the ball into the end zone for a touchdown during the second quarter against the Northwestern Wildcats at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State interim head coach Terry Smith has been adamant about his team outrushing Ohio State on Saturday. He mentioned it twice this week. And he’s right. It’s actually more important than one might think. 

Penn State doesn’t have many offensive advantages over Ohio State. The run game is one. Penn State averages 169.6 rushing yards per game, Ohio State 151.7. 

If the Nittany Lions lose the ground-game battle, it’s hard to imagine they can pull off an upset. Especially when their passing offense is rated 108th in the FBS and the Buckeyes are 23rd.

Outrushing Ohio State starts with running back Kaytron Allen. The senior tallied career-highs of 28 carries and 145 yards against Iowa. He was slotted into the workhorse role for the first time all season in Kinnick Stadium and was the reason Penn State kept things close with the Hawkeyes. 

But outside of Allen, as Smith said earlier in the week, the Nittany Lions must get running back Nicholas Singleton going. He has looked like a shell of himself in 2025, part of the reason the offense ranks 97th in the country. Singleton is a dynamic runner but has yet to really contribute this year. He’s averaging a career-worst 3.6 yards per carry. That must change for an upset to happen. 

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Bend but don't break defense

Ohio State offensive lineman Joshua Padilla (62) blocks Wisconsin defensive lineman Jay'Viar Suggs (31) while providing pass protection for quarterback Julian Sayin (10) against Wisconsin. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ defense played to bend but not break against Oregon, and it largely was successful. Penn State held the Ducks’ explosive offense to just 17 points in regulation. The Nittany Lions have to do it again against a dynamic Ohio State attack. 

Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, a future first-round NFL Draft pick, does an excellent job getting behind defenses and threatening them vertically. Knowles and his defense must be OK with giving Smith easy, short-to-intermediate catches and living with that damage. 

Opposite of Smith is wide receiver Carnell Tate, a projected top-10 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. He’s also a threat downfield. Tate has registered catches of 30+ yards in five of the Buckeyes’ seven games and a 40+ reception in four. 

If Penn State can limit Ohio State’s explosiveness, it gives itself at least a chance to keep the game close.  

RELATED: What happens to the Penn State-Ohio State rivalry after 2025?

Unleash the pass rush

Penn State Nittany Lions defensive linemen Zane Durant (28) and defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton (33) react during the fourth quarter at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

One of the ways to stymie an explosive offense is to generate pressure. The less time Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin has in the pocket, the fewer explosive throws he can make. That starts with Penn State giving defensive end Chaz Coleman a full workload. 

Smith said that Coleman, who played just seven snaps against Iowa, wasn’t used much due to the Hawkeyes’ run-heavy offense. Coleman is more of a pass rusher, and the Nittany Lions will need that against the Buckeyes. 

Additionally, Penn State needs defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton and tackle Zane Durant to step up and produce. Dennis-Sutton and Durant, who many thought would finish the season as All-Americans, have combined for just four sacks and eight tackles for loss this year. 

With the Nittany Lions’ thin defensive line, they need their stars to show up. There’s no better time to do that than in Columbus against the top-ranked team in the country.

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